THE ELECTION CUP.

SOME FINAL, NOTES AND

fffttOM Otfß CORRESPONDENT.] WELLINGTON, Iteo. j B. Tho most astonishing confidence . ycJtSue? to bo exhibited by both /Si and whatever the result of the Son it is now certain; tha(t one Sde or tho other Mill be -grievously evidently believes '.that those who would command succes^must first earn iV and it personal enerffv counts for anything he snouW ibe in th© best of spirits when late on »Thxtrsday night the numbers go ■ >i]>. 1 \rrivihg from the north late on £ ri'dav he motored, through the .Wairarapa to Ma&terton on Saturday, addressed a meeting in support ot Mr (Hogg's candidature, and then whizj?,ed back to Wellington in time to catch the south boat at midinght in orler to address meotint^at Gore and ■Bifclutha. Who would be a" pohtieal Reader? ' . ■ „.',..'"v ~ , , From a reliablo source I learn that the Government expects no change an the strenaih of parties at Aucfela.nd teavo in Auckland East, where Mr OBradneylis considered very weak. The HVfaesevit© candidate for Grey Lynn, Mr Murdoch McLean, will poll well, t»i\t either, Mr Fowlds or Mr Payne ,-vv-ill probably win, in either. of which cases the vote vriVt be against the Government

At the Bay of Islands it is thought fthat Dr Buck will squeeze in between the rival Government men, Messrs iVernon Reed and Wilkinson. Otherwise no change in the Far North. Messrs Poland, Glover, Myers, Young, Herries, Bollard, and Lang are all considered .safe; but hi. Waited auata there is a chance of Mr Harris^ feoing down before Mr Tewsley, and Bit Thames the issue is also very 'doubtful. Mr Macdonald is being- run very hard by Mr K. Williams for the EBay of Plenty, and Sir James Carroll ihftS; no mean opponent in Mr H. do 3jautoi.tr.. But my money in each case Hoes on the old members. Mr Massey will probably have a I)lock Taranaki vo/fce, the only doubtful being" Mr Pearce in Patea. At [Wanganui the "Lib-Lab." split caused by Mr Hogan's candidature should greatly help Mr Pirani. Mi- Newman is safe for the Rangitißei, but Mr Ciuthrie, the Government Whip, has •all his1 work, cut out in the Oroua, :stnd the issue is decidedly doubtful, j At Palmeraton North the "old j [horse,' 3 Mr D. Buick, will be hardly i ipressed, I hear, by a Social. Demo-I crat, Mr J. Thorn. The railwayman's vote in this constituency is very large, und Mr Thorn will get it. The Reform vote is split, by 'Mi* Nash, the [Mayor of Palmerston, and the official iLiberal, Mr Crabb, will take from 2Vtr Thorn's vote, as Mr "Thorn will tal<e from his. Oh paper Mr Buick ilias still the best show. No change need be expected in IHawke's Bay .generally, although the Opposition organisers profess great that Dr McNab-may oust Mr Campbell. At Masterton Mr iSykes may go down before the veteran'Mi; Hogg, and Mr Hornsby's 'friends are reported to be very confi7Cient of theii-' man beating Sir Walter '[Buchanan. • ■

In Wellington the results should he: Herdman (North), Fisher (Cen- • tral), Dr Newman (East), Hiiidmarsh (South), ;Wright (Suburbs), Mr / OFletoher's. friends are very " cocksn v o aibout '^downing' 3 "Dahn"; but the 'Minister is, it is said, getting a great .women's vote ; and although ;t will Jba a close finish I still expect to see. Mm come out on top. Atmore (Nelson), Colvin (Buller), Beddon (Westland), and R. McKenzie (Motueka) are regarded as certainties ; but at Greymouth it ist quite (likely that the Social Democrat. Mr IWebb^ may be beaten by. Mr Michel. "■'.'■ If there be any-change in South- . Sand and inland Otago it will be in Wallace v -where the Government candidate, Mr Rodgers, is said to stand an. even-money show of defeating Mr !J. C. Thomson. Otherwise no change. In Dunedin also no change is expected, vsave for Mr Downie" Stewart '(Government),' replacing tho Hon. J. !A. Millar. The Chalmers issue is, iw)wever, doubtful.

Mr Aitstey, formerly in the.Upper iHouse, is said to have a good chance ■wf winning Waitaki, formerly repre- - eented by Mr J. H. Smith, now standting against Mr Craigie at Timaru; tmt on the other hand the Reformers ore confident of winning Mr Buxt-on's * old seat,' Temuka, and have great h opes of ousting Mr Buddo (now in a Wellington hospital) at Kaiapoi. Some surprises are not improbable |at Christohurch, where Messi's G. W. ißusseil and Isitt are said to be very [Weak, the former particularly so. Messrs Ell and Witty are reported "safe," and the Government catndiidate for Lyttelton, Mr . Miller, is -so weak a platform speaker that Mr •McCombs, who might have been defeated by a stronger candidate, is said to have a fair chance of return.

In Christchurch East the "Libluab." vote is being split by a Social Democrat, Mr Hunter, and th*e "icial .Liberal, Dr Thacker. This will', it is thought, give Mr G. D. McFarla-ne, the Reformer, a good show. But Ohristchurch is so generally Radical that I slmll be much surprised if the iMassoyite be successful.

It is currently reported that Mr iMassey counts upon a clear majority ■of from ten (to twelve, and that Sir Joseph Ward is equally sure that he will "get home" by a majority of much, the same number. -My own '"tip," given for what it is, worth, is fhat the Government will come back? with a majority of not less t&an four and noifc more than eight. We shall :-see what we shall see.