HAWKES BAY SEATS

NAPIER CAMPAIGN

CANDIDATES AND PROSPECTS

(By Telegraph.) (Special to "The Evening Post.") NAPIER, 16th November. The preliminary manoeuvring having teen ebmpletea,"tho contest for the Napier seat has settled down definitely into a three-cornered one. It had been hoped there would be a straight-out fight between the sitting Labour member and a Coalitionist, but simultaneously with the announcement of the selection of Mr. J.S. Butler as the Coalition candidate Mr. J. Vigor Brown made public his intention to stand.as an Independent. Some consternation was caused in tho United camp soon after it was known the Government would go to the country as a Coalition by an ostensibly unofficial Teport that Mr. J. B. Ormond, formerly selected as Keform opponent to Mr. A. E. Jull at Waipawa, would •withdraw from that contest and was willing to offer himself for selection as Coalition candidate for Napier. This was interpreted at tho time as an endeavour on the part of Heformcrs in Napier to get in first with their nominee for selection as the Government candidate for Napier, while Waipawa Reformers were somewhat nonplussed in view of the fact that they had not up to then considered the matter of withdrawal. The report was promptly denied from Waipawa. .Next there came from some Napier Uniteds a rather premature announcement that Mr. Butler would be the official Coalition candidate. While it won a foregone conclusion that Napier Reformers would approve of Mr. Butler as the final choice from among those offering, there was evidently a' little presumption on the part of those who made the public announcement and feathers were ruffled for a day or two. Eventually, misunderstandings were ironed out and now Coalitionists in the electorate are solidly united in the campaign for Mr. Butler's return. Mr. Brown, the Independent candidate, is understood to have been among those invited to submit to the Coalition selection ballot. However, he did not accept and, as stated, announced himself simultaneously with the announcement of Mr. Butler's selection. It is probable the. precipitate action of the Pniteds was due to a desire to anticipate. Mr. Brown in the hope jthat ho

lowing policy to the olectors, and urges them to support and vote for tho Labour candidates. The establishment of a Central Bank with control of note issue, and the organisation of the banking system and credit resources with maximum facilities for use in primary and secondary production at minimum cost. Planned production of national roquiremonts. Development and extension of land settlement. Co-ordination of all Government Departments—associated with primary production to enable the fullest assistance to bo given to the primary producer. Supply of all necessary fertilisers on long credit, payment to be made in proportion to increased output. Promotion of reciprocal trade agreements with Great Britain and other countries. Organisation of contracts for sale of New Zealand .products overseas, with guaranteed reciprocal trade. Negotiations to prevent undue fluctuations in prices, with ultimate stabilisation for given periods. SECONDARY INDUSTRIES. Maximum .support to secondary industries. Investigation of markets overseas for New Zealand-manufactured products. Extension of Homo markets for New Zealand products. Cultivation of, and assistance in, the promotion of the following industries: —Coal carbonisation, flax products, motor, assembling, assistance in reorganising woollen, clothing, boot, iron, and other industries with a view to meeting the requirements of the Dominion from its own factories, with adequate safeguards for economic prices. Construction, maintenance, and metalling of backblocks and other roads. Coordination of motor, railways, and shipping systems with a view to supplying tho most economical services at the lowest cost. Reduction of interest. and rent charges, with right of appeal by mortgagee and property owner to prevent hardship. UNEMPLOYMENT. Immediate provision of productive work to enable unemployed to earn sufficient to maintain themselves and their dependants, with ultimate transference to ordinary productive employment. The Labour Party will Reintroduce the graduated land tax on large land holdings. Maintain the Conciliation and Arbitration system for the negotiation and settlement of differences and disputes between employers and employees. Maintain existing educational, hospital, and pension facilities. EXPANSION 01" INDUSTRY. The call to all electors is for the expansion of industry, so that those at present unemployed may bo once more absorbed in industry, earn their own living,-and make their own homes. The natural resources are available — the human resources are at present idle —the Labour Party believes that it can command the credit which will link the human with the material resources. With tho maximum encouragement to private initiative and the careful, coordinate planning of our requirements and production, we can start the Dominion once more on the road to prosperity which is the rightful duo of 'all our citizens.

would be deterred, but those who know Mr. Brown would not be misled into supposing ho would turn back once he had reached a decision to stand.

So much for the preliminaries, now for the candidates and their prospects. ME. BROWN'S CANDIDATURE.

Mr. Butler, who is,a- member of a well-known accountancy firm, is a man of known ability, though as a platform speaker he has yet to make his mark. In a rowdy campaign he may or may not be able to sway an audience, but if his hearers are prepared to-listen to him he will give them food for thought and probably convince many of them of the wisdom of his political beliefs. 'He' would unquestionably be a sound legislator and ono whom any electorate might be proud of. He has declared himself as an out and out Coalition candidate, declining to be bound down to either United or Reform in tho event of the Coalition being dissolved at any time. In a straight-out contest with the sitting Labour member, the Coalitionist would have an even chance of success. Mr. Brown's advent, however, rather complicates matters. Mr. Brown, Mayor of Napier for many years, represented the seat in several Parliaments years ago, but since his defeat on changing his colours from Liberal to Reform in Sir Thomas Wilford's time as Leader of the Opposition his political stock is not^eo high. His chances on this occasion are doubtful, although he himself has unbounded faith in his intensive newspaper advertising method of campaigning, which, indeed, on one occasion returned him to the Mayoralty over,a Very strong opponent who was generally considered safe. Mr. Brown will be third on the list when the votes are counted, buij his presence will have a great deal to do with the way the pendulum swings between tho other candidates. The I question whether Mr. Brown's supjportars would in the event of his withi drawal, which is not likely, be Labour or Coalition, or an equal division of both, is difficult to answer, and thereon rests the result of the contest for Napier.

Mr. W.- E. Barnard, sitting Labour member, has given all bis attention to his constituents during his three years in the House. He has made himself popular enough by his anxiety to serve the people, especially during the trying times following the earthquake. But, now his politics may count more than his mere service Prom that angle it may be assumed he will retain the Labour vote—that section which is un^ changeably Labour. The balance of his 1928 total depends upon the appeal of the rival campaigns. Since the end of Mr. Brown's long term as Liberal member, Napier has been fairly evenly balanced between Labour and Reform. Nine years ago Mr. L. M'llvride wo a the seat for Labour la a three-cornered contest, Jhiee

years later he was defeated by Mr. John Mason in a straight-put contest. Mr. Barnard succeded at the last eloction against Mr. Mason, but the Beformer was. in hospital until a couple of days before the election and was unable to take part in the campaign. Hence, particularly in view of the anticipated, swing from Labour generally, the Coalition should carry the balance. But Mr. Brown is in the field, and that presents the principal puzzle so far as the Napier seat is concerned. A COALITION CERTAINTY. Tho Hawkes Bay seat presents no problems, and may bo written down immediately as a cortainty for the Coalition. Tho Reform voto alone in the electorate is very strong, and Mr. H. M. Campbell, the sitting member,, will also havo the United supporters working solidly for him. Some time ago Mr. G. F. Roach, Mayor of Hastings, was selected as United candidate, but he withdrew almost immediately it was known the Government had decided to make a joint appeal, and has since announced his intention of devoting all his energies to the return of Mr. Campbell.: , : On tho other hand, the electorate's Labour vote is a very small one. Moreover, Mr. E. L. Cullen, the Labour candidate, who is a farmer, at Nuhaka, in the Gisborne electorate, is comparatively little known in Hawkes Bay. His chances .of getting within hundreds of Mr. Campbell are absolutely nil. Even with an Independent candidate in the field, the Coalition candidate would still remain unbeatable on account of the strong support already forthcoming from the Uniteds of the district. "'.•-.■ THE WAIFAWA SEAT. It is not yet definite whether or not Mr. Jull, the present member, will be opposed for Waipawa. Tho prompt denial of tho premature report of Mr. J. D. Ormond's withdrawal and a rumour that Mr. A. C. Russell, a staunch Reformer, is likely to contest the seat as an Independent indicate that there are Reform supporters in the electorate who are not satisfied. At first, when "Reform, officially announced the decision to withdraw Mr. Ormond and support. Mr. Jull, it was thought Mi-. Jull would be unopposed, as Labour has no following in th© electorate and is very unlikely to put up a candidate. There seems now, however, a strong possibility that there will be a contest.. As to the result, it is probably just as much a certainty for the Coalition as Hawkes Bay, because tho proportion of Reformers who are not prepared to follow Mr. Coates's lead is quite, small. In any case, it "wouldtakea strong:"man to unseat Mr. Jull.