The Future of Aviation.

Progress, Volume VI, Issue 5, 1 March 1911, Page 583

The Future of Aviation.

What the "Times" says. No one should be deceived by the advance which has been made in man's ability to fly, into supposing that the aeroplane is shortly going to become the recognised vehicle of any one who can afford to buy it. Much laborious research has yet to be devoted to solving the mechancial and meteorological problems involved in flying. Perhaps in ten years'.time a machine will be constructed whose cylinders will not miss fire, which will start certainly- and without assistance, and land safely, in any reasonably level space 100 yards long, which will be able to cope with the unexpected eddy, and which will not come to pieces in the air. And perhaps by that time we shall have a knowledge of ' aerial conditions in some degree comparable with that which we have at present of the sea, so that an experienced pilot will be able to find his way with confidence among the unseen obstacles to the earth. Meanwhile it is a risky thing to prophesy concerning the aeroplane of the future. It is certain, however, to be built

1. Inability to combat winds. 2. Constructional weaknesses. 3. Unreliability of engines. These defects, which made aeroplanes mere playthings in their early stages of development, are already being overcome in an altogether surprising way. That they will be completely overcome, and that flying machines will be of practical and everyday use, is my firm conviction. Take flying in winds as a first example. With the aeroplanes we had in the beginning it was only possible to ascend when the wind was as low as four or five miles an hour. Now I find it quite possible to remain in the air, and control my machine, in a wind of 25 miles an hour. From this, to the ability to fly in even stronger winds, it is merely a question of greater speed. 1 have become an ardent advocate of highspeed flying. Speed gives you power to overcome the attacks of sudden wind gusts, which are the airman's peril. On a highspeed monoplane, for example, you dash through an adverse gust in the same way that a fast torpedo-boat destroyer thrusts her.way through an opposing wave. Therefore, in my constructional work, I shall devote earnest attention to a high-

speed machine. Problems have to be overcome, naturallychiefly those concerning the strength of supporting planes when driven at exceptionally high speeds through the air. A far greater weight and rigidity of construction is, however, bound to come. "With it will dawn the era of aerial travel at speeds of 100 miles an hour. At such a speed it will be possible to pilot a machine through anything short of an actual gale. When we have this machine — it is my intention to strive for construetionally regular aerial services, from point to point, will become not only possible, but profitable. Engine problems are solving ' themselves. With the scepticism with which some people always view a new idea, it Mas contended, in the infancy of aeroplanes, that no petrol motor would stand the strain of propelling an aeroplane, because of its necessary lightness and the high speed at which it would have to be run. The answer to these critics has been overwhelming. Even while our aeroplanes, and particularly our propellers, are admittedly imperfect, thereby imposing upon an engine the most difficult conditions, flights of three, five and six hours are already evoking no particular comment. To a certain extent, indeed, the duration of a flight has now become purely a matter of petrol-carrying. I have not the slightest fear, therefore, as to the success of the flying machine engine. Its reliability has already become remarkable. Since the famous London to Manchester flight, in April last, I imagine that I have flown, from day to day, as regularly as any one; and I have already been taught to be quite surprised should my engine manifest any fault or failing. From the point of view of propulsion, therefore, which is its most important aspect, the aeroplane's future is assured. And now there is the question of safety. Here, I know, I am face to face with a very grave misconception. People generally have corne to the conclusion that flying is highly dangerous, and will always remain so. I, as a practical flyer, say that there is very little danger in it now, and that in the future there will be no more risk in an aerial journey than in moving from point to point in a railway train. At present, reckoning expert flyers and pupils who can pilot a machine off the ground, there are estimated to be 3000 airmen throughout, the world. To teach these men to. navigate a new element, with crude, experimental machines, and absolutely no data to go upon, what has the death-roll amounted to? Less than 30! And, in this particular connection, it is significant to recall, as a. comparison, that nine men were killed in one of the great motor-car races. Analysing the deaths that have taken place, it is possible to draw a practical lesson from each. Thus, the set of circumstances which brought about any one of these fatalities is not likely to occur again. Inexperience, foolhardiness, and constructional weakness in machines have been responsible for practically all the accidents which have taken place. Given a good machine, a careful, well-trained pilot, and proper weather conditions, flying is already as safe as motoring; and very soon it promises to be safer. The dangers which now exist when a man flies will

speedily be overcome by the introduction of stronger, speedier machines, and the adoption of engine systems whereby a compulsory descent, owing to mechanical troubles, will be obviated. The air is absolutely free and unimpeded. Once we have definitely conquered our enemy the wind it will offer an absolutely ideal medium for high-speed traffic, besides providing a traveller with the most delightful way imaginable of getting from point to point. Next summer, practically for the first time in a complete and finished way, people will be able to enjoy the sensations of air travel. Ready for trials in the spring will be the first of a type of machine one might call "the air-car." It will be a strongly-built monoplane. A 100-h.p. engine will propel it. It will have a body like that of a motor-car, with four comfortably padded seats, well protected from the wind. There is no reason at all why any wealthy motorist should not purchase such a machine as this, have an "aerial chauffeur" instructed to pilot it, if he does not want to learn to drive himself, and enjoy aeroplaning in a thoroughly practical way. In its sporting aspect, I forsee that flying will enjoy an even greater vogue that motoring. The reason is not far to seek. Motor-car driving, even in its most favourable aspects, cannot be compared with flying. There is a sense of freedom --an exhilaration—in passing swiftly through the air that never comes to one when driving a car. I speak from experience again, having done more than a little motoring. Directly a more convenient, less bulky machine can be produced, what one might call the public demand for an aeroplane will begin. The demand of the age is for high-speed travel. The possibilities of land locomotion, in this respect, are almost exhausted. So, too, are those of sea transit. And now, conveniently to hand when mankind wants it, is air travel. I do not see one insurmountable difficulty in the way of completely revolutionizing, by means of the aeroplane, all existing methods of communication. What Mr. Ledehoer says. The majority of aeroplane accidents can with certainty be ascribed to either of the two causes enumerated by Mr. Gra-hame-White f oolhardiness or inexperience of the pilot or structural weakness of the aeroplane. Against the former it is difficult to devise a remedy, save that derived from increasing familiarity with the conditions of air-travel and the consequent, correct appreciation of its dangers. Bui; structural weakness, while being by far the more prolific cause of grave accident, is always avoidable and usually inexcusable. It is not beyond the bounds of engineering knowledge to-day to provide a structure that combines the requisite lightness with an ample margin of safety in strength. Nevertheless, it may be said, without the slightest exaggeration, that a large number, if not indeed a majority, of the aeroplanes that are successfully flown to-day possess little, if any, margin of strength. Mr. Grahame-White advances the view that stability will be attained by increase of speed, that an aeroplane flying at 100 miles an hour will successfully negotiate "anything short of an actual gale." To this view I take the strongest

possible exception. Not only will stability be in no wise furthered by striving after enormous speeds, but a new danger caused to ariseit is impossible to predict or to calculate from existing knowledge the strains which at high speed grow enormously, to which would be subjected an aeroplane flying at 100 miles an hour and suddenly struck by an opposing gust of 40 miles an hour. There is only one direction at the present time that will lead to the attainment of fruitful results; this is the production of an aeroplane that shall possess greater, and possibly automatic, stability. More, over, by the evolution of a low-powered slow-speed machine a greater step will have been made in the development of aerial navigation than by the attainment of a speed in excess even of 100 miles an hour. What the "Aero" says. The forecast of this authority is preceded by a very striking sketch of the year just ended which is very interesting. "This being the last issue of The Aero for 1910, and the last issue of the current volume, it may be well to review briefly our present position in aviation as compared with our position this time last year. At that period we had in England practically no bona fide aviators. Mr. Moore Brabazon had done a little flying in France, and had Avon the prize for the first circular mile at Shellbeach. Mr. Cockburn had done some flying in France, and so had Mr. Grahame- Mr. Ogilvie had flown at Camber, and Mr. Cody had then the honour of being the only man domiciled in Great Britain who had made anything like a prolonged flight, his flight of 40 miles across country m 66 minutes on Sept. Bth, 1909, being not only a British record, but a World's cross-country record. A few others had just made short hops, but nothing more. Apart from them, we had not one who could really be called an aviator. To-clay we have 38 aviators who have actually qualified for their Royal Aero Club Certificates, and besides them there are twelve British aviators who possess French certificates, but do not possess British certificates, so that we have in all actually 50 aviators at the end of this year. This places Great Britain actually in second position as regards the total number of aviators belonging to any one nation. It is true that France has now just over 300 certificated aviators, but from the 300 must be deducted quite a fair number of aviators belonging to other countries, who have qualified in France, just as the twelve British aviators who do not possess British certificates have qualified. These include Belgians, Dutchmen, Italians, Danes, Peruvians, Russians, a Japanese, and even a few Germans, so that probably the number of French subjects owning certificates is something between 200 and 250. Thus we have still a very large amount of leaway to make up before Ave can even give France a run for her money. Nevertheless, if things progress as well as they are doing at present, next. year should see the gap very materially l decreased, for by the time our men have learnt to rise superior to British weather, and by the time our constructors have learnt to build machines which will not only assist aviators in doing so but are also able to deal adequately with the topo-

graphical peculiarities of the surface of Great Britain, we shall doubtless produce a breed of aviators superior to anything the Continent can find. As Captain Sanders so appositely remarked recently, "A smooth sea never made a good sailor," and it is quite possible that our much abused climate may in this way ultimately be the salvation of Great Britain from a foreign invader, even as the severe training our "West-country seamen received some 400 years ago was the salvation of the country a couple of generations later from the Spanish Armada. The Meetings of 1910. During 1910 there were held some 30 aviation meetings, of which about one-third were in the United Kingdom. The finest show of flying was at Rheims, where as many as 18 aeroplanes were to be seen in the air at one time. The most noticeable feature of many meetings was the amount of money lost over them by their promoters. This, no doubt, was largely due t«) bad weather; it was also clue to the fact that, for the ordinary public, flying, when nothing sensational happens, is about the dullest thing to watch in the world. All but persons financially interested in promoting meetings are agreed that the days of the smaller type of meeting, at all events, are numbered. For the sake of the progress of aviation it is to be hoped that this is so. Even if the public would continue to pay for seeing what it can see perfectly well for nothing, the time has come for the circus-tricks and unnecessarily dangerous competitions which now form the popular attraction at many meetings to give place to more serious scientific investigations. The idle crowd is delighted when an airman makes a series of dives, like Kipling's " webby-footed" amphibian Challong, who "swam round and round the ship, sayin' 'dam,' for to please the men"; it is thrilled, as are the spectators at a bullfight, ' during any contest of an. obviously dangerous kind. But the gate-money point of view, with the increase of foul driving and the official favouring of local competitors, which have been freely .complained about at many meetings both at home and abroad, have spoilt the game. Rheims is likely to remain the constructor's Mecca, but for the most part the attention of racing men in 1911 will be concentrated on cross-country flights such as that proposed for the Daily Mail prize of £IO,OOO in England and that round the principal capitals of Western Europe.