Current Topics

New Zealand Tablet, 14 October 1915, Page 21

Current Topics

German Peace Terms j According to a Washington dispatch, supplied through the International News' Service and printed in pro-German American papers, it is reported in wellinformed diplomatic circles that the terms which Germany is willing to consider for peace proposals are substantially as follows:—(1) The establishment of Poland into an independent Kingdom, to be composed of all Kussian Poland, a part of Austrian Poland, and a small part of : German Poland. (2) Absolute freedom of the seas, established through a new international declaration of rights to which all maritime Powers shall be signatory. Germany will agree never again to establish a submarine blockade. England to agree never again to make the North Sea a tributary water. (3) Co-equal rights and liberties for Jews in all lands guaranteed by all signatories to any treaty of peace. (4) Bessarabia, now Russian territory on the Black Sea, to be ceded to Rumania. (5) Austria-Hungary to be given a dominating influence in the Balkan States. (6) Belgium to be restored and her sovereignty and future neutrality guaranteed. (7) All French territory held by Germany to be restored to France. (8) Thai, portion of Alsace held by France to remain a part of the German Empire. (9) All German colonies seized during the war to be restored. (10) An indemnity to reimburse Germany for the cost of her military operations. Considering the nature and extent of the blockade attempted by Germany, the promise that she ' will never again establish a submarine blockade ' is a little humorous. It is also significant. For it is certain that Germany would never undertake to abandon such a weapon if she had not found it, for all vital purposes, impotent and ineffective. For the rest, the terms of these proposals are of less interest and importance than the fact that such ' feelers' are being put forward. Germany and Russia Many weeks ago we expressed the opinion that in spite of her long series of successes Germany had not received adequate value for the gigantic sacrifices involved in her offensive against the Russians. Three weeks ago Lord Kitchener stressed this point in his speech in the House of Lords, declaring that the German plan to destroy the Russian army as a force in being had been a signal failure, and even going so far as to suggest that the apparent victories might prove to be very real defeats. Mr. Hilaire Belloc, whose views, it is known, are regarded with respect even by the military authorities, takes precisely the same attitude, and maintains that, imposing as the territorial conquests appear in this concentrated and sustained offensive, the game has, in reality, not been worth the candle. Writing of Germany and Russia, Mr. Belloc thus sets forth his view of the situation in the last issue of Land and Water: —'Each faces the other, the one still on the offensive, although with its momentum strangely lessened; the other still on the defensive, though with the situation now apparently well in hand. But each may ultimately reverse his old role, each is a great army in being; and there is no seal yet set upon the Eastern campaign. It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the enemy has failed in his main endeavor. In other words, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion, even at so early a date as this, and with another seven or eight weeks of tolerable weather before the rains set in in Poland, that the Austro-German Higher Command gambled for a far swifter progress and for a much more definite result. They have expended in reaching so neutral an issue nearly half what was in the beginning their reserve of men trained and equipped (excluding what they must keep back for drafts to the new Southern front). They have done their very utmost with shell under conditions where the big gun had it all its own way: They have devoted almost entirely to this effort fifteen out of the now numbered weeks

remaining to them as the uttermost limits of their continued strength, and it"is difficult to see how, to the. moment : of writing at. least, they can regard the thing they have purchased as worth anything like the price they have paid, in -men, in materials, -and in time! For all these* three essentials are counted out to the enemy by fate very strictly. Materials least, men far more, time most of all.' Russia, it may be added, has recently called out eight million more men under 35 years of age. <-..' Bulgaria and Constantinople A cable in Friday's papers contains a remarkable and at first sight somewhat improbable-looking statement regarding German promises and proposals in respect to Constantinople. ' A French. wireless message,' says the cable, 'announces that the Young Turks have sold Constantinople to the Bulgarians 1 as a reward for their intervention. Germany has promised the reconstitution of Turkey throughout Western Asia and Northern Africa. Le Matin declares that General von der Goltz offered Abdul Hafid the vast Empire of Asia in exchange for Constantinople. Abdul Hafid refused. It was necessary recently to dazzle King Ferdinand's eyes. As a visitor he enjoyed a triumphant entry into Constantinople, and so the Young Turks brought pressure to bear on Abdul Hafid to consent to the exchange.' * ■ " The story is not really so surprising as it looks, and there is excellent reason for believing that the cabled statements are substantially accurate. % The willingness of the Central Powers to hand over Constantinople to the Bulgarians is no new or recent development. It is a well-known fact that Bulgaria aspired to the possession of Constantinople during the second Balkan war in the year 1913;. and it is equally incontestable, though not so well known, that the Central Powers at that time entirely approved of the projected transfer. ' A significant fact,' says Dr. E. J. Dillon, ' for which I can vouch— is, of course, well known to King Ferdinand, although it has never been divulged before—is that when M. Daneff broke up the London Conference and the Bulgarians, having taken Adriauople, were about to push through Chataldja and march on Constantinople, the two Central Empires signified their acquiescence in the capture and retention of the Turkish capital and Thrace by Bulgaria. And to my knowledge the eventuality of this annexation, without anticipation of the details, had been carefully thought out and prepared for in Sofia several years before.' A splendid reward like this appealed with irresistible force to King Ferdinand, and he was far too dull-witted and short-sighted to realise what was behind Germany's complaisance in the matter. ' What neither he nor the politicians of Sofia would seem to have taken into account,' adds Dr. Dillon, ' is the ultimate aim of his protectors. What Austria and Germany really had in view was not merely the command of a formidable Balkan army and the support of the united states of the Peninsula, but the concrete fruits which these possessions would bring within their reach. Bulgaria's real part in the business would be solely that of proxy. She would seize and hold Salonica on behalf of her patrons and employers, and her occupation of Constantinople would have for its object the opening of the Golden Horn and the Straits to German and Austrian ships and the monopolising of the markets of the Near East.' Thepromise of" Constantinople to Bulgaria, referred to in the cables, was thus, from every point of view, a trump card for Germany— securing the immediately desired, result, and as holding the promise of a still more ample return later on. Submarine Anticipations The Germans and their friends appear to have built the most extravagant hopes and anticipations on the wonders that were to be performed by.their, submarines which mounted to quite a delirious

height upon the sinking of the fast-steaming Lusitania. 5 They really believed ■■■, that the ': undersea craft would ; ' prove a decisive factor in the great struggle, and the - .-final means*of bringing, England to her knees. Ger■Js\many */Will. Dictate Peace Terms/ "Will Be Enabled '\ Through Its Submarines to Establish Blockade of All ■h v English Ports'are the headings .of an article in a recent issue of a pro-German American paper. 'The sinking of the.Lusitania,' says the article, 'supposedly immune from submarine attack because of her speed, gives weight to the claim of Admiral von Tirpitz that, if the war lasts long enough for him to build them, his submarines will block every trade route to Great - Britain. Simon Lake, America's foremost submarine

architect, in commenting on the sinking of the Lusi- ?; tania, indorsed the German claim thus: If the present war continues another two years and Germany succeeds in holding her land frontiers, her submarines will be 'able to dictate the terms of peace. She has the . capacity, both in shipyards, torpedo factories, and submarine engine shops to build sufficient submarines to establish a submarine blockade of all English ports.' The Germans are now turning out two complete submarines of the latest U type every week, according to fairly reliable reports. These boats are said to be more than four hundred .feet long ; to be able to stay at sea without supplies for three months; to have a surface speed of 18 or 20 knots an hour, a submerged speed of 10 or 12 knots, and to carry several powerful guns in addition to six torpedo tubes, which fire torpedoes 17 feet long, one of which can sink a battleship. The menace of these submarines springs from the fact that no satisfactory method of fighting them has yet. been devised. There are no submarine destroyers. The British submarines are unable to combat the German undersea boats, because they can neither see nor attack successfully so elusive a target. While sea-planes can distinguish submarines in clear water, they cannot injure them, and the only mark presented to an attendant destroyer is an occasional sight of a grey periscope tube three inches in diameter. The number of British trade routes and great harbors is not large, and as the number of German submarines increases Great Britain is likely to face a serious shortage of supplies, if not starvation, as Admiral Sir Percy Scott, Sir Conan Doyle, and Mr. Lake have prophesied.' The Reality So ran the German dream. The sober fact is recorded in a brief but significant cable in last week's _ papers. 'The American Naval Attaches at the various i. Embassies in Europe,' says a New York message, f ' report that the British have captured or destroyed between 50 and 70 submarines.' And a London cable adds: 'The Daily Teleyra-ph's correspondent at New York says that the reports furnished to the United States Attaches in Europe of the German submarine losses and the methods of ensnaring and capturing the vessels have created a profound impression in America. The correspondent adds that the United States Admiralty is now convinced that Germany has modified her submarine policy, knowing that her blockade has been a ghastly failure. lie also says that the Admiralty has quashed the idea of decreasing America's construction of Dreadnoughts in favor of submarines, being convinced that the capital ships have not lost, but have increased, in value.' German Fconon ic Preparedness We have published in these columns various and varying opinions regarding the economic condition of Germany, our idea being to gather evidence from as many quarters as possible and leave the intelligent reader to form his own conclusion. The present German viewpoint on the subject is expressed, loudly and confidently, in a letter written by Professor Max Sering, of the University of Berlin, and published in the New York Times of a recent date. Professor Sering is senior professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Berlin, and since August of

lastyear he has been personally engaged in working out the 1 {pod problems arising out of .Germany's isola- ( tion from transoceanic grain-producing countries. :};■ He w is, 1 perhaps, a; biassed witness, "but at least he speaks \ !t from, first-hand knowledge ■-.: and with something;' like V : authority. At -first, he tells us, he ; felt some anxiety o ,: as regards the outlook. Excusing himself for not C having replied sooner to his correspondent, he..says: ;'^ At that time, however, I was somewhat in doubt with regard to the matter, and did not want to confide *; my fears to a letter. It is evident that, in consequence of the attitude of America and other neutrals, ,we had to solve some very serious problems, for heretofore we have been in the habit of importing from one-fifth to one-fourth of all our raw materials and foodstuffs. Since the outbreak of war very little is being imported. In consequence of this very difficult organisations became necessary, the finding of substitutes, and a governmental regulation of the demand, which were to safeguard everything that was absolutely necessary for the conduct of the war and for the feeding of the population, even at the expense of the production and the consumption of things not so necessary or more easily spared. I, myself, have participated in the work of solving these problems.' * Now, however, he is quite satisfied, and declares that Germany enters the second year of war with every problem of self-sustainment solved. Since the outbreak of war I have worked on only this from morning ' until night, but now I can say that the problems have been solved completely and in every direction. We can now continue the war indefinitely. I have reported about all this in an address before the Academy of Sciences. I shall mention'only the most important part here. The complete cutting off of the supply of ' Chile saltpetre during the war has been made good by our now taking nitrogen directly out of the air in large factories built during and before the war. With extraordinary rapidity the question lias been solved how to obtain quantities of the needed ammunition which in England still meets with difficulties in spite of the help from America. It is, however, not only for the needed explosives that we take nitrogen from the air, but also for the nitrogen-containing fertilisers which we _ formerly imported in the form of Chile saltpetre. As to our foodstuffs, you will know that the Government on February 1, 1915, took over all the grain, and prescribed to each one a certain portion of bread and flour. In the beginning this portion was somewhat scant because we wanted to be sure that our supply would last until the new crop. Now, however, it has been found that the threshing results of the last crop were more favorable than we had estimated. We are entering the new crop year with such large stocks that some weeks ago the prices for flour and bread could be reduced considerably and the bread portion of the working population could be enlarged. Potatoes, also, which for a while were very expensive, have lately become quite cheap, because, unexpectedly, large supplies were found when the potato pits were opened. The prices for bread and potatoes, and even for beef, are - now much lower than in England, where things were " allowed to regulate themselves. As our industry fitted itself with the greatest elasticity to the problems brought about by the war, unemployment is less than before the war, the workmen receive higher wages, and the masses with us are well nourished. You would find in Berlin and in every other place in Germany a people enjoying good health, and who on every nice Sunday and holiday have plenty of relaxation and . ' pleasure.' . V- *

Economically, the, prospect for the coming year is not only tolerable but almost rosy. 'ln the final analysis this success is due to the high degree of education in our population. Many little discomforts, which we were obliged to put on them, were borne cheerfully; people hardly talked about them. The first year of the war being happily behind us, we do not worry about

' the second year, as now we have accustomed ourselves to the new conditions, all organisations are working I well; and the crops : in Germany are- sufficient to sup- . ply all the "wants of the population generously. T The supply of meat will become somewhat scant by and by, "" but that does not matter, as we have"; been in the habit ?-y '£-;~i of eating too much meat. The hygienically necessary r.s quantity of albumen and calorie is at the disposition of every one.' In a word, according to this' sanguine .. senior professor in the Department of -"• Economics, everything in the garden is lovely. Allowance must, of course, be made for his desire to paint the picture V'. as bright as possible; but even with this reservation, his statement remains the most comprehensive and authoritative on the subject of the present economic condition of Germany that has yet appeared. .