The New Zealand Tablet THURSDAY, AUGUST 6, 1914. THE WAR

New Zealand Tablet, 6 August 1914, Page 33

The New Zealand Tablet THURSDAY, AUGUST 6, 1914. THE WAR

-* -m „ ' HE hopes that were held out for a time that jglUa tho European war cloud would pass have proved vain, and the cataclysm has come. Austria has declared war against Servia ailcl is bombarding Belgrade; Germany has' declared war against Russia, and shots have X * been exchanged on the Russian frontier; » and without any declaration of war, German troops have invaded France. It is not easy to state with any definiteness or certainty the cause or causes of this dramatically sudden development. The recent assassination of the Archduke of Austria when on a visit to Servia, the existence of a serious and extensive industrial upheaval in Russia, and the fact that England and France were pre-occupied with internal difficulties of a more than usually troublesome kind, have doubtless contributed to determine the moment selected for letting slip the dogs of war ; but the root cause of the trouble would seem to be the deep and long-standing racial antagonism between Teuton and Slav. Thus much is made fairly clear by a speech delivered by the German Imperial Chancellor in the Reichstag. The racial antagonisms,’ he said, ‘ between Slav and German will not by themselves lead to a war between xis and Russia. We, at any'rate, shall never stir up such a war, and I do not believe that those who at present hold power in Russia will ever do it. It is, however, as well knowxx'to the Russian statesmen as it is to us that the Pan-Slav currents, about which Bismarck even in his day complained, and which caused his uneasiness, have received a powerful stimulus from the victories of the Slav States in the Balkans. Bulgarian victories over the Turks have been celebrated in these quarters as victories of the Slav idea in contrast with the Germanic idea. Together with the real conflict of interests, these tendencies have contributed to the tension which has prevailed this winter between Austria-Hungary and Russia.’ And this view is confirmed by the following statement made by Germania , the principal organ of the Centre Party : ‘ We have repeatedly stated that a victory of the Balkan Allies is in reality a Russian victory. When the great European war breaks out the Triple Alliance will be opposed by the Triple Entente and the Balkan States, and the latter will be found more ready to fight the Triple Alliance than England. Until lately it was thought in Germany that we should have to prepare for the inevitable war with England. The events of the last few months have shown that a greater and.more immediate danger threatens Germany from the direction of Russia. The Oriental question has assumed a new form, ‘ It may be summed up in the words: Germanism versus Slavdom.’ ... .

Until to-day (Tuesday)' there had been much speculation as to whether Great Britain was bound by the obligations and spirit of the Entente to throw in hexlot with ranee ’and Russia at the present juncture, and whether she would, in fact, do so. It is hard]v open to question that Britain was under no strict obligation, by virtue of the Entente, to take the grave step of plunging into a European war merely because France and Germany were embroiled. An Entente is not necessarily an alliance; and the Entente between Britain and France and between Britain and Russia is something very far short of either (he Dual or the Triple Alliance. When Austria declared war against Servia, and Germany, Russia, and France became involved, the whole situation, so far as Britain was concerned, was open to review ; and that Power could either have participated or refused to participate in the struggle without any loss of honor or respect amongst the nations. At the outset, ' indeed, she would have been reasonably justified in standing aloof, for as far as could be seen the war was one in which she had absolutely nothing to gain and very much to lose. "When, however, Germany showed her hand by the Violation of the neutrality of Luxembourg and of Belgium the situation was entirely altered. In this connection the considerations addressed to the louse of Commons by Sir Edward Grey are irresistible. ‘ if Germany,’ he said, ‘ had given an ultimatum to Belgium asking her to compromise her neutrality Belgium’s independence would have gone, and if that had gone the independence of Holland would follow. He must ask the House to consider what would be their, position if France were beaten and subordinate to Germany, with Belgium, Holland, and Denmark under the same ’dominating influence. It had been said that we might stand aside, husband our resources, and intervene in the end to put things right, but if we ran away from our obligations of honor and interest regarding the Belgium Treaty he doubted whether any material force would be of much value in the face of the respect we should have lost.’ In such a case Britain would not only have lost respect but she would have allowed Germany to obtain a permanent position of vantage which would have been a constant menace. Under the circumstances, to have remained aloof would have been to imperil her very existence as a nation. * The probable or possible effects of the war on New Zealand have been already sufficiently indicated in the daily press. The obvious position is that if our staple productssuch as meat and grain —can be assured of safe transport there will be an almost unlimited demand and a considerable rise in prices. It is, however, a tolerably big if.’ For it is an accepted axiom of British naval policy that it is not, primarily, the duty of the fleet to ‘protect’ anything at all, but that its one business is to seek out the enemy’s ships and destroy them. That principle has been recently re-affirmed by Mr. Churchill, and assuredly it will be acted upon in the present struggle, the defence of the trade routes remaining, necessarily, a secondary matter. The Committee ’on a National Guarantee for the War Risks of Shipping, whose Report was issued in 1908, considered at some length a scheme for a national guarantee or indemnity to merchant shipping; and this is being, in part, adopted by the Government. A still more hopeful way of obviating the danger is the promised inauguration of a freight and passenger service by some neutral Power, such as America. Some such device is urgently desirable; for it seems clear that wireless telegraphy will make it easier than ever it has been in the past for men-of-war to hold up merchant ships. * What course, generally, the war will take, or what will be the outcome of it all, no man, of course, can say. Japan, it is to be noted, has offered Britain hexactive support ; and if the offer is availed of, Australasia will assuredly be called upon to modify her talk and her legislation regarding ‘the yellow peril.’ The whole business is in. the last degree grave and deplorable and the one melancholy consolation that is per-

milled to us is the hope that the very magnitude of the scale upon which operations are being conducted will militate against a prolonged or protract ed struggle.