The New Zealand Tablet THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 1913. HOME RULE PROSPECTS

New Zealand Tablet, 6 February 1913, Page 33

The New Zealand Tablet THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 1913. HOME RULE PROSPECTS

Jm& ' ■ — ~~~ —' <f«r?ras> 0 those who have been watching closely, the M WiVl trend of affairs, in British politics there IvTSj * have been evident signs that the time was not far distant when the Government, instead of losing at by-elections, or merely holding their own, would be found actually yjffiry 4 gaining seats from the Opposition. The §r* run of ill luck which the Government experienced at the by-elections from the end of 1911 till towards the close of last year was due. to temporary causes which are becoming less and less operative, if they have not entirely disappeared. In

some cases it was due to the misguided policy of the Labor Party in splitting the democratic vote by the intrusion of a Labor candidate into contests in which there had hitherto been a plain issue between Liberal and, Conservative. The victory of the Liberals at Hanley—where the Labor Party lost a seat to the Government taught that Party, a lesson; and it may be taken for granted that the fatuous policy of dividing the progressive forces and allowing the Unionist to slip in will now be abandoned. In the majority of cases the Government reverse was due to the unpopularity, in its earlier stages, of Mr. Lloyd George's really beneficent Insurance Act. At its inception the inconveniences and temporary hardships which it involved were somewhat acutely felt; and were worked for all they were worth —and for a good deal more — an unscrupulous Opposition; The real and substantial benefits, however, conferred by the Act are now beginning to be realised and from being a source of weakness it promises to become a source of positive and undoubted strength to the Government. The prospect at present is, at anyrate, that in the future the Government will be fairly judged on its actual policy; and that means fresh successes and fresh popularity for the Party. This was markedly manifested at the recent byelection at. Bolton, at which, where defeat was expected, the Government scored a notable victory. ■* Even in the earlier by-elections in which the Government suffered reverses their defeat was in no case attributable to the Home Rule issue; and in the split contests, where the Insurance Act was not made the dominant issue, the combined poll of the Liberal and Labor candidates, with rare exceptions, indicated a distinct and steady increase in the Home Rule vote in the constituencies. But perhaps the most striking and significant evidence of the growing strength of the Home Rule sentiment and of the prospect of assured success for the movement is to be found in the result of the recent exciting contest in Londonderry City. Judging by the cables received on the eve of the contest the election was regarded by both parties as constituting a test vote on the Home Rule question. The indications all seemed to favor the Unionist chances. The seat had remained in the undisturbed possession of the party for over a dozen years. At the last election the Unionist candidate had been returned by the comfortable majority of 105. The city had recently had the inestimable privilege of a visit from Sir Edward Carson and his English lieutenants; and although the ' Solemn League and Covenant' was actually signed at Belfast, it was at Londonderry that the portentous ' Covenant' movement had been inaugurated. There were those amongst the Carson following who blatantly announced that the inauguration of that movement had sealed the fate of Home Rule. And little more than three months later Londonderry has given the answer to this bombast and to Sir Edward Carson's pantomime performance by throwing out the Unionist candidate and returning a pledged Home Ruler. Attempts will, of course, be made in Conservative circles to minimise the importance of this transfer of seats at this critical stage in the progress of the Home Rule movement; but the fact speaks for itself and will not be explained away. The significance of the contest lies in the fact that it is an utter falsification of the statements disseminated by Sir Edward Carson and other partisans as to the state of feeling prevailing in Ulster on the Home Rule question. After this, the politician or the journalist who paints Ulster as being ablaze with indignation at the prospect of Home Rule being ' thrust upon ' the country, will look something of a fool; and the election should have a) marked effect in steadying the ' Ulster ' fuss and in keeping the wild talk about ' Ulster's' hostility to Nationalism within some sort of reasonable bounds. Incidentally, the election may be taken as Ulster's answer to the impotent " , nashin° r of teeth which marked the debate on the Home Rule Bill in the House of Lords. Lord Lansdowne, abandoning argument for personality, asked: 'Who are the Irish Party?' The answer is easy. The Irish Party are the men who have smashed the House of Lords, who have the ' gilded chamber '

at their mercy, and who have rendered Lord Lansdowne and the other interesting antiquities politically helpless. That being so, the Party can listen to the railing of their former tyrants with amused contempt. The Londonderry election has also had the interesting effect ,of changing the balance of representation so far as Ulster is concerned. Ulster returns thirty-three members to the House of Commons. Prior to the Londonderry election, 17 of these seats were held by Unionists and 16 by Nationalists. That position is now reversed; and the province which, according to the blusterers, was prepared to line the ditches and offer armed resistance to self-government, has returned a majority of representatives pledged to H<sme Rule.