THE LICENSING POLLS.

New Zealand Illustrated Sporting & Dramatic Review, Volume XX, Issue 1132, 21 December 1911, Page 20

THE LICENSING POLLS.

INCONSISTENT VOTING ON THE NATIONAL PROHIBITION ISSUE. A NO-LICENSE MINORITY BECOMES A PROHIBITION MAJORITY AN INTERVIEW. “Yes,” said the president of the New Zealand Licensed Victuallers’ Association (Mr. J. S. Palmer), after carefully checking the Press Association figures, giving the results of the No-License and Prohibition polls on the 7th of December, that the interviewer placed before him, “the result is very curious. On the one hand we have, on the No-License issue, an actual majority—a small one it is true, but a majority nevertheless—of the electors of the Dominion favouring Continuance, and on the other hand a decided majority voting for National Prohibition. I think you should place the figures before your readers, contradictory as they may appear, because I do not think it is right that the statements of our Prohibitionist friends should go forth unchallenged, and that we, who are vitally interested in the question of No-License and License, should allow it to appear that there is not another side to this seemingly huge majority of 60,000 odd in favour of Prohibition. Personally, I regard that vote in a very different light, to that in which it has been viewed by those who are aiming at the extinction of the liquor traffic. But, first of all, I think you should get the figures down. Take the Local Option issue first. The approximate results are summarised in the following table, but are, of course, subject to modification by the official'figures:-—

“Now, allowing for informal ballot papers, and there appears to have been more than the usual number,” Mr. Palmer continued, “there is no getting away from the fact that, on these Press Association figures, compiled from the returns published in the daily and weekly press, the Continuance vote has, for the first time since 1899, overtaken the No-License vote. I think you might take these figures by way of contrast, to show the growth of this year’s Continuance vote. They give the results of the Local Option polls from 1894 onwards, and,’with the exception of this year’s totals, are compiled from official sources. Here they are:—

“There is evidence in these figures of a very considerable growth in public opinion in favour of Continuance, the advance being equal to rather more than 24 per cent, on the 1908 total, while the No-License increase is barely equal to 5 per cent. In the face of this fact, it is rather much to expect us to believe that the Prohibitionist sentiment is as strong as the National Option figures make it appear to be, or that the 60,000 majority in that- case, can be taken as' a true gauge of' public feeling upon the matter.

“But if the majority is to be taken as a gauge of public feeling in the business, how do you account for the position? It appears eminently unsatisfactory from the Trade standpoint.” “That is so,” Mr. Palmer replied; “but I am convinced a great many votes were given under a misconception of the issues on the National ballot paper. The Local Option issues were clear enough. The man who wanted to vote for Continuance knew what to do, but the man who wanted to vote against National Prohibition was not quite so clear. You would be surprised if you only knew how many seemingly intelligent men and women were misled. I know of scores of cases in which the top line was struck out because the voter really believed that, in doing so, he was voting against National Prohibition! I cannot pretend to explain why it was so; I only know that feeling existed, and many of my fellow licensees in Auckland have told me of cases similar to those of which I am speaking. This confusion of ideas, I am convinced, helped to swell the National Prohibition vote. Had the issues been as clearly stated as they were on the Local Option ballot papers, the case would have been different.” “Is there anything in the detailed figures that suggests a misconception of the issues?”

“A great deal I think,” Mr. Palmer replied, “there is first of all, the extraordinary turn over of votes, in some places where the so-called Temperance vote is not nearly as strong as in other places. Take Palmerston North as a case in point. There 3380 votes were polled for Continuance and 2748 against Prohibition. In the same town, 3008 votes were cast for No-License and 3615 for Prohibition. I am not prepared to accept the theory that the 600 odd electors whose votes represent the difference between the Continuance and Anti-Pro-hibition votes, executed a deliberate volte face; and I can only conclude, therefore, that there was a misunderstanding of the issues. Again, take Napier. What do we find there? An actual majority of’ 580 votes recorded in favour of Prohibition, although, on the Local Option issue, there was a majority of 762 for Continuance. And here is another point that bears out the contention that there was a very real misconception of the issues, at Napier there were no less than 404 informal votes’ Could anything point more conclusively to a confusion of the issues on the part of the voters? And that confusion appears to have been pretty general, for at Timaru, in the South Island, there were 316 informal votes —-‘the returns in my possession do not show anything like the full extent of the informal voting, but it must have been, as I have already suggested,, very extensive — and although 3092 votes were cast for Continuance there were only 2792 polled against Prohibition. .What became of the 300 votes constituting the difference? Are they, to be accounted for by the informal voting, or may we not reasonably assume that a very considerable portion of them were allowed, under, a misapprehension of the issues, to swell the National Prohibition majority of over

600 recorded there?” Dealing more generally with the figures Mr. Palmer proceeded to point out that, while every province had recorded majorities in favour of Prohibition, Hawke’s Bay, Wellington. Nelsen, Marlborough, Westland and Canterbury have given substantial majorities for Continuance. “Look at the city figures,” he said, “Wellington turned its 1908 No-License majority of 3093 into a minority of 2376, the votes contrasting in this fashion:—

But, on the Prohibition issue, the Continuance vote dropped from 12,294 to 10,888 and on the results before me there is an apparent deficiency of 422 votes, -as. , between the. Local - Option and National Prohibition ballots; that is to say the number of votes recorded for and against Local No-License was 22,212, while only 21,790 votes are included in the totals for and against National Prohibition. The difference can only be accounted for by informal voting, or the refusal of the electors to vo:e upon the National issue.”

Mr. Palmer similarly contrasted the Christchurch, Auckland and Dunedin results. In 1908, he pointed out, the Continuance vote in Christchurch was only 9804; this year it stood at 11967. The No-License vote in that city had, on the other hand, only advanced from 10,141 in 1908 to 10,949 in 1911. Thus the Continuance vote had increased by 2163, whereas the NoLicense vote merely rose by 808. In again, the Continuance vote in 1908 was 8255; this year it stood at 11,158, thus rising by 2903, whereas the No-License vote actually went back from 10,395 in 1908 to 10,318 this year or by 77 votes. Even in Dunedin, where the No-License wave appeared to be strongest the Continuance vote had increased by 3073, that is from 8772 in 1908, to 1.1,845 in 1911. The No-License vote in Dunedin had, on the other hand, only increased by 567 votes, rising from 11,686 in 1908 to 12,253 this year. In the face of such results, Mr. Palmer is strongly of the opinion that the strength of the Prohibitionist vote is largely due to a misapprehesion of the issues. Asked if he did not think such a line of argument would cut both ways, he pointed out that the Prohibitionists had been at great pains to educate their people, and that every No-License voter went to the poll with the instruction to “Strike out the Top Line” ringing in his ears. “If we want to save the position and to conserve the liberties of the subject, we must,” be said, “profit by the example of our vigilant and ever active opponents, and set about educating the people. ourselves upon the important issues, on which they are called to express an opinion. If we fail to do that,” he added, “we can only look for defeat at the polls in 1914.

Dargaville is making steady progress, though there is not by any means a boom on. This is all the better, for after a boom usually follows a slump. One notices on each successive visit some striking improvements. The borough is shortly going in for a fairly extensive improvement scheme. Provision has been made for improving the streets, laying dwn of gas works, etc.’ The most important undertaking of all —a good water supply—though not lost sight of, has been deferred. The largest hotel in the town is the Northern Wairoa, now very ably conducted by Mr. F. L- Hodges, a well-known and popular resident of the Wairoa of many years’ standing. Not every visitor to Dargaville is aware that by application to Mr. Hodges, motor launches may be engaged for excursions to the very picturesque upper reaches of the Wairoa River. The famous Wairua Falls may be. readied in this way and would well repay a visit.

LOCAL OPTION ISSUE. . Votes for Provinces Continuance. Votes for No-License. Auckland ... .. 57,299 64,449 Hawke’s Bay .. 9,581 8,468 Taranaki .... . . 10,374 12,003 Wellington • • . . 48,096 43,775 Nelson, Marlborough and Westland 20,057 16,044 Canterbury .. .. 43,873 40,609 Otago and Southland .. 42,157 44,612 Totals .... .. 231,707 229,960

Year Votes for Continuance. Votes for No-License. 1894 ... . .... 73,771 84,835 1896 .... ... . 139,580 98,312 1899 .... .... 142,433 118,575 1902 .... . . . . . 148,449 155,524 1905 .... .... 182,884 198,767 1908 .... .... 188,140 221,471 1911 (approximate totals) .... 231,707 229,960

Votes for Votes for Well. City Continuance. No-License. 1908 . . . . 7,979 10,072 1911 .... 12,294 9,918