Cost of the Next European War.

New Zealand Graphic, Volume XLIV, Issue 25, 22 June 1910, Page 58

Cost of the Next European War.

SOME STUPENDOUS FIGURES. (By if. CHARLES HUMBERT, ; Member of the French Senate, and a recognised military authority.) Germany has understood better than any other Power that millions of men under arms do not constitute the only factor necessary nowadays to warrant undertaking war with a chance of success. A nation must also have at its immediate disposal milliards of francs to enable it to undertake and conduct a modern conflict. With the truly remarkable methodical spirit which characterises the Government of William 11., Germany has classed its efforts in three groups —the financial preparation of war, the financial mobilisation and the financial conduct of war. Following this line of thought it has begun by consulting the most recent lessons in modern warfare. Statistics show that Germany will, have at the end of 1912 10,240,009 men in readiness. As it would be both impracticable and commercially and industrially unwise to enlist such a mass of soldiers, Germans admit they would only call, inclusive of Army and Navy contingents. 3,000,000 men in. all. At the rate of 6/ a day, as in IS7O, this would make a total expenditure of £376,344 a day, or about £ 138,000,000 a year, exclusive, of course, of all subsequent indemnities and pensions. But this enormous sum is not immediately necessary. What Germany would need during the first six weeks following the declaration of war is:— (1) £60,000,000 to meet immediate expenses of troops on sea and land, as well as purchasing supplies of all kinds, which are considerable and costly, especially lor the Navy. (2) £60,000,000 required by the industrial, commercial and agricultural undertakings which would be called upon to furnish war supplies. As this sum would represent the price of the raw material, and initial expenses indispensable to begin work, it should be held in readiness in local German banks. (3) A “ war-scare” Budget of £12,500, 000. This sum must be immediately available and would be necessary to face the needs created by the inevitable panic re. suiting from the declaration of. war, which would take the shape of a run on the banks and the collection of outstanding notes. This makes a total of £132,300,000 that the German Empire would require befora beginning hostilities, and it is tile most practical means of obtaining this sum that J. Riesser endeavours to discover. First of all, the mobilisation expenses could suffer no delay. To cover these the initial resources exist in the annual Budget of the Empire; that is to say, credits destined in time of peace to all such undertakings as public instruction, public works which the declaration of war would necessarily express or postpone. Germany estimates it could obtain in this way at least £14,000,000, which was the amount saved on interior expenses in one year by the Russian Government during the recent w r ar. The cash on hand in the Reichsbank, which is the official Government institution, averages £45,000,000, while the war treasure in the Julius Tower, at Spandau, which is the gold

balance of the French indemnity .of: 1870, la at present £ 4,000,000. All this .wealth could be withheld from circulation and kept in the Reichsbank as guarantee for a, sum three, times larger in bank notes of legal, if hot forced currency. This wealth alone represents a total of £ 65,000,000, nearly, all of which Is In liquid cash; that is to say, enough to cover the initial expenses of military

mobilisation. But such a move would exhaust the credit of the Imperial Bank, which must remain the goose with the golden egg. Therefore, Germany would naturally prefer making this sum guarantee an issue of paper money sufficiently large to tide until the time when, by raising loans with taxes or Custom duties a.s security, resources indispensable for the continuance of warfare could be found, ■ -

The Government, on the other hand, would have the right, according to the Constitution, to suspend reimbursements on all bank notes, and temporarily to institute'exceptional Customs tariffs. Germany hopes by these various means to raise the £140,000,000 necessary during the first six months of the war. Afterwards, that is to say for the £ 187,000,000, supposing that hostilities should last a year, one-third would be covered

by the increase of already existing and the creating of new taxes, while ths other two-thirds, about £124,000,000, would be defrayed by a Government loan. “ Fortunately,” the Germans say, “this appeal to public credit, if perchance it were needed, would not be necessary, contrary to what occurred in 1870, at least, until after the hardest period, that which immediately follows the declaration of war, has come to an end."