I—l 7

The absolute figures on which the above results are calculated are given in the next table :

Table No. 20. —Table showing Excess of Births over Deaths in the Quinquenniums from 1871-75 to 1941-45

It needs to be emphasized that while the absolute number of New Zealand's, population has been growing, the above figures show that there is a remarkable drop in the rate of growth. The lowest point was reached in 1936, since when, and until 1939, there was a steady improvement, when the rate was higher than at any time since 1927. (This discussion omits all reference to immigration.) A rate of 7-89 per 1,000, as in 1936, meant that, although the population was increasing, the increase was not sufficient in the long run to maintain even a stationary population. The future size of a population—ignoring for the time being the question of immigration —is related not so much to the absolute size of the present population as to the number of women at the reproductive age at any given time. At the present time fairly reliable estimates can be arrived at of the number of children of both sexes who will be born within the next few years. The number in the next generation, however, is related to the number of girl children born to-day who will survive to the reproducing age. The number of such children who will die prior to the reproducing age can be calculated reasonably accurately. If it is assumed that the fertility rate —• that is, roughly, the size of families —remains the same and that there is no change in the mortality rates, the size of the next generation can be calculated with some accuracy. Such an index is called the net reproductive rate (the gross reproductive rate ignores mortality figures). The following table gives some idea of the trends in recent years : Table No. 21. —Table showing Net Reproductive Rate in New Zealand from 1936 to 194:4 1936 .. .. 0-970 1941 .. .. 1-274 1937 .. .. 0-990 1942 .. .. 1-208 . 1938 .. .. 1-028 1943 .. .. 1-077 1939 .. .. 1-073 1944- .. .. 1-207 1940 .. .. 1-195 If the rate is exactly 1, then, other factors remaining constant, the same number of female children will be born in the next generation as were born in the year under review. If lower than 1, then less will be born, and hence the potential increase will be less than sufficient naturally to maintain a stationary population. If greater than 1, the population will be increasing. From 1931 to 1937 the rate was less than 1, indicating a potentially declining population. This fall was due to the economic depression. Since 1937 the rate has always been above 1, and hence prospects are brighter. Any decline, however, in the present low birth-rate in the future will give cause for serious concern. In general the figures give cause for some concern. If the experience of the

12

Period. Excess of Births over Deaths. Males. Females. Both Sexes. 1871-75 19,410 21,129 40,539 1876-80 30,144 32,807 62,951 1881-85 32,362 35,046 67,408 1886-90 30,781 33,544 64,325 1891-95 27,255 30,630 57,885 1896-1900 28,097 31,437 59,534 1901-05 32,515 36,223 68,738 1906-10 . 38,681 43,06781,748 1911-15 42,323 46,682 89,005 1916-20 35,248 41,359 76,607 1921-25 41,876 44,868 86,744 1926-30 .. ■ .. 36,886 40,456 77,342 1931-35 30,715 33,237 63,952 1936-40 32,604 37,192 69,796 1941-45 44,172 47,027 91,199