THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XXXV, Issue 10838, 23 August 1898, Page 5

THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION.

MORE DANGERS AHEAD.

CONTINUED PREPARATIONS. ' [FROM our own correspondent.] London, July 15. Day by day the newspapers are filled with the same wearisome " padding." in the shape of telegrams and leaders about China and Russia and France and America and Spain and so on. But except only in the case of the Times' special correspondent at Peldn, nothing seems to find publication that throws any real light on the present international situation. Yet that situation is still most grave, and is pregnant with possibilities which cannot be faced without a shudder. Early in the recent spring I explained with considerable fulness the reasons which led me to form certain very serious conclusions as to a probable course of events. It will be remembered that I set forth in detail a long list of extensive preparations which were being made with unusual secrecy by the British Government for a sudden and early outbreak of war. I may say now that all the information I then had amassed from a large number of independent sources, and all the conclusions I deduced from the collection, have since been entirely corroborated and confirmed.

It may be well to remind my readers that the outcome to which all appearances then pointed was a war, not defensive but offensive, initiated by England. All was being got ready for a sudden launching of the war thunderbolt against some adversary undisclosed, Tho situation remains the samemore so, I might say, if I had the privilege bv birthright of using a "bull"—its main features unchanged, save that they have deepened in gravity. " Then why don't we see anything about it in the English papers?" I can fancy some colonial reader asking, with indignant incredulity. My dear friend, you do— you can " put this and that together" by the aid of the requisite light afforded by special information. The papers may have good reasons for not publishing what cannot be authoritatively confirmed, and what might be derided as mere mischievous surmise. It is at any rate quite certain that the Government are most anxious to prevent the publication of anything wliich brings into prominence the delicate and critical and menacing character alike of the situation, and of Ministers' efforts by diplomacy to avert the threatened catastrophe. But almost every day brings fresh light, if only in sparks and flashes. Why, do you think, did the British Government become alive at last to the advantage of having a naval repairing station in New Zealand? Don't you suppose it is because they expect to want it? But that is only one of many little sparks of light which glimmer for a passing moment, and show that a, traveller is on the right track. Then what does it all mean? my readers will ask. Listen! Much has been heard and read of late of sinister designs on the part of Russia and France against the British Em- i pire. Recently I described the amazing | progress made by the former in her scheme of hemming in China ami dominating Pekin. France is there also. The fact is that Russia and France are not yet ready for war with England. They are preparing with desperate energy and determination. But they are not ready, or nearly ready, on the sea" at any rate. A German paper to-day predicts that England, will have to adopt the conscription, and pleasantly adds that it will be too late, for Russia and France will not wait until England has got a huge army of conscript soldiers, but will attack and demolish her at their own convenience. A complete plan of campaign has been drawn up, with tho most profound secrecy, and various little moves are being made almost daily in the direction of enabling it to be efficiently carried out should the necessity unhappily arise. All the experts are agreed that if Russia and France have made up their minds to fight England, sooner or later, it had better be sooner than later, while they are so far from ready by sea, instead of letting them choose their own time after they have carried into effect their extensive programme of naval extension. Already the French and Russian Governments, recognising their hepefe weakness as to coaling stations, are using every effort to obtain those essentials to a naval' war. Hundreds of little things, seemingly trivial or meaningless in themselves, must now be read as details of a vast design. Such small matters as the despatch of the Grenadiers to Gibraltar; the abandonment of the naval manoeuvres, the military utilisation of Salisbury Plain, etc., are all separate bricks of the same edifice. New Zealand cannot, be too vigilant, or too thoroughly prepared for any sudden contingency. Oiie thing is quite certain, and that is that France will avoid war if possible during the next 2J years. Paris is feverishly eager that the great Exhibition of 1900 shall prove a complete success. Vast preparations are already being made— I was in Paris recently for a few days I was amazed at the gigantic character of the works in progress— and the expenditure to which France stands committed is enormous. The Paris tradesmen have been badly hit by the SpanishAmerican war, which has kept away the usual rush of gold-disbursing Yankee tourists, and they look to the Exhibition year to recoup them. Absence of English and American visitors during that year would be ruinous. A big war anywhere would be mischievous. So Paris will try to keep France out of it. Naturally, thoughtful readers will wonder what is to be the role played by Germany in the event of such a contingency. The plain fact is that Germany is very much embarrassed just now as to the line of action which would best suit her somewhat selfish policy. The more far-seeing of German statesmen clearly recognise that if France and Russia fight England and beat her, the next step will be the " revanche" for Alsace-Lorraine. With France on one flank and Russia on the other, Germany would be between two fires, and would almost certainly be crushed by sheer weight of numbers. The palmy days of the Triple Alliance are orer. Austria and Italy are at present too seriously weakened, the former by internal dissensions and the latter by straitened finances, to render adequate aid in such a case. On the other hand, Germany is intensely jealous of England's commercial supremacy, and would gladly destroy that if possible. But that is one thing and the abolition of England as one of the great balancing Powers is quite another. Whatever may be thought of the present Anglo-American entente, whether it be deemed a mere evanescent sentiment d'occasion, or whether it be regarded as the foundation of a permanent Anglo-Saxon alliance, there is no doubt that it has come as a surprise and a dread to tie Powers h'stile to England, or lukewarm in their friendship toward this country. The war with Spain has dragged America out of her Monroeistic isolation and brought her face to face with other nations. And once out of her seclusion and in the world of conflict, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, for her to revert to the status quo ante bellum.