E EVE OF BATTLE.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XXIV, Issue 8082, 24 September 1887, Page 5

E EVE OF BATTLE.

THE FIGHT IN DCJNEDIN.

THE PREMIER'S EXPECTED DEFEAT.

STORY OF A CYPHER TELEGRAM.

A GARBLED ANECDOTE.

SIR JOHN HALL'S POSITION.

MR. ORMOND AND SIR J. VOGEL.

A WELIINGTONIAN FORECAST, J

[by telegraph.—own correspondent.] Ellington, Friday.

THE premier's FATE.

Attention hero is fixed upon the contest for I'unedia East. The friends of Sir Robert Stout now admit that nothing can be known until "the numbers are up." The members of the Opposition believe they can defeat him by a large majority. ' I met a member of the Legislative Counoil this morning, who told me he had information from Dunedin to the effect that the betting was 2tol on Mr. Allen. Such long odds would indicate that Sir Robert Stout's chances have considerably diminished during the last few days ; but I heard also to day that there was considerable sympathy with the Premier. In a very select society in Otapo the defeafi of the Premier is looked upon as a shocking issue to a career that carried with it so much of prestige and future promise. The political status of the Premiership in such society carries with it a special claim to respect and deference. It is thought that the prestige of the office and a personal liking for Sir Robert Stout will save his election in the last resort; but heavy odds are against him in the estimation of those whose business is to turn chances into money. THE STORY OF A CYPHER TELEGRAM. Sir J. Voxel, in his speech on Wednesday, told an anecdote which caused some amusement to his audience, but lias been turned about In such a way as to have on the Ministry a damaging effect. He said that Major Atkinson, having received a telegram in cypher from Sir J. Hall, and being unable to make out the Government cypher, asked Mr. Bryce to help him with one particular word. To the astonishment of both gentlemen, according to Sir J. Vogel, Mr. Bryce read, " Look after Bryce; he is not to be trusted." The actual words of the cypher telegram, however, were the following :—" If Bryce does not turn over a new leaf I shall resign," Moreover, it was Sir F. Whitaker who received the telegram, and not Major Atkinson. When Mr. Bryce saw the telegram he said he would not stand that sort of thing. A meeting of the Cabinet was called, and the Ministry resigned in a body. The Opposition say that Sir J. Vogel garbled the actual facts, and they point with an air of triumph to the fact that when the Ministers of that day had a serious difference of opinion, even on the policy of one department, they resigned in a body. The Stout-Vogel Ministry should have followed such an example, in their opinion.

THE NAPIER DEMONSTRATION. Sir J. also told his audience that he had invited Mr. Ormond to his meeting. Mr.Ormond has replied that he womld attend, and would sacrifice one of his own meetings with that object in view ; but he has received a letter from Mr. Ivoss' committee, to the following effect:—"The meeting will be held to hear Sir J. Vogel on public affairs, and no proposition to tie his hands behind him in the course he may think proper to pursue can for a moment bo entertained. Sir J. Vogel has been attacked for some months, and must be afforded the fullest opportunity of replying to the assaults. This is the object of the meeting, and it is not called for | the purpose of affording an opportunity for further attack." This letter is regarded as barely courteous to Mr. Ormond, and will, it is said, rather damage than assist the Government candidate. HOW THE BATTLE IS GOING. The contest between Messrs. Buchanan and Bunny for Wairarapa Is the keenest in the Wellington province. Mr. Buchanan happened to go into Mr. Bunny's meeting last night.. He wished to correct a statement made by Mr. Bunny, but Mr. Benny's supporters would not allow their men to be interrupted. They called on Mr. Buchanan to ge: a room of his owe. There was a lively time for the Buchananites ; nevertheless I think Mr. Buohauau will be returned. Mr. McArdle has recanted bis first political opinions, and lost political caste. It is said Mr. Horace Biker has hurt his chances by indecorous self-assertion. Mr. W. C. Smith is almost certain to be returned for Woodville. There is nothing more to be said about Wellington city. SIR JOHN HALL. I am informed that the speech of Sir John Hall, at Leeatou, iB not regarded 'by several members of the Opposition as adequate to the political crisis, and that his popularity as a possible member of the next Government has greatly diminished. But opinion is to the effect that, if Major Atkinson should have to form a Government, Sir John Hall will be the man for Canterbury, THE POSITION OF SIR J. VOGEL. A few days ago I told jou that Sir J. Vogel was somewhat elated by the turn the elections were taking against at least two of bis colleagues. He was reported to have speculated upon the possibility of being a "pivot" round which new combinations must revolve, I was anxious to know what the Opposition thought of it. 1 have spoken to three gentlemen who are almost certain to be members of the new Parliament. They said with singular unanimity that while they could not estimate the precise effects of the elections upon the Parliamentary status of the Treasurer, it was impossible lie could ever form one of an Atkinson-cum-Bryce or an Atkinson cum-Hall Government. They are very positive in the matter.

A WELLINGTON "TIP."

The Post gives the following "tip" as to the return of members to serve in the next Parliament: —Messrs. Atkinson, Anson, Ballance, Bain, Barron, Beetham, Bevan, J. O. Brown, Bruce, Bryce, J. C. Buckland, Bunny, Colbeck, Cowan, Cargill, Dodßon, Darg&ville, Fisher, Fitzhcrbert, Fraser, Fulton, Feldwick, Gill, Guinness, Gore, George, Garrick, Hislop, Hirst, Hobbs, Hall, Hamlin, Hursthouse, Iz»rd, Joyce, Jones, Jack* son, E. G. Kerr, Lance, Larnach, Lawry, Loughrey, Levestam, Mitchelson, Marohaut, Mac Donald, Macarthur, J. Mills, Captain McKenzie, McArdle, Scobie McKenzie, Meuteath, Mackay, Newman, Ormond, O'Connor, O'Callaghan, Pearson, O'Rorke, Peacock, E. Richardson, G. F. Richardson, Captain Russell, Rhodes, Donald Reid, John Keid, Rolleston, Ross, Stout, Stewart, Steward, Samuels, Shera, Saymour, Tanner, H. Thompson, T. Thompson, J, W. Thomson, Taylor, Vogel, Walker, Wright, Whyte, Withy, Wilson, Reader Wood.