THE GERMAN PACT

Evening Post, Volume CXXVIII, Issue 47, 24 August 1939, Page 15

THE GERMAN PACT

EVENTS BEFOREHAND

SIGNS THERE TO BE READ

NAZI CONFIDENCE

(By "Senex.")

The sudden announcement of the Russo-German non-aggression pact, which has put a new face upon the whole European political and military i situation, has been the surprise of the year. Yet looking back over the events lof the last few months it is apparent mow that the signs of some such move were there to be read. The first thing which pointed to such a pact was the obvious, fear of Russia | held by the Germans themselves. In i German technical journals for some time past there has been no attempt to minimise Russia's war strength. Indeed, though the last' British military mission to Russia returned most impressed with" the calibre of the Russian fighting services, there appears to have been more scepticism in Britain than in Germany about the quality of Russian aid in any war. The next thing was the mutual suspicion in existence between Russia and Britain, suspicion which slowed up negotiations for an Anglo-Russian Pact until Germany had concluded non-aggression agreements with Estonia and Latvia, and which enabled her to push on to a bigger success. For the agreements with the smaller Powers impeded the talks still further, and the inflexible Russians held out. Thus Herr Hitler was given time to make the agreement which Western Europe has feared he might some day make, an agreement which would establish his frontier in the East. THE UKRAINE DRIVE. The evidence of his abandonment of i his old dreams of a push into the Ukraine was provided after the annexation of Bohemia and Moravia and the creation of the puppet Slovakian State last March. At the time of the carrying out of the occupation of CzechoSlovakian territory after Munich, the Germans steadfastly refused to allow i Hungary and Poland to establish a ! common frontier. Hungarian claims |to the rugged and worthless Ruthenia I (or as the Germans called it "Carpathoj Ukraine") were denied, and the denial was emphasised by troop movements. The general opinion was that the Reich was preserving this strip of territory las the spearhead of its offensive against the Ukraine in Poland, in Russia, in Rumania and Hungary, and that the scheme was to unite these fragments into a vassal State. But five months ago Hungary suddenly received this, territory; the barrier against Hitler's eastern plans became complete. It was j i apparent then that he declined to ] move along the path which had been • smoothed for him to bring him into inevitable collision with the Soviet Union. The next significant event was the denunciation of the Anglo-French proposals by M. Molotov, the Russian I Prime Minister, at the end of May, with the declaration that they were i "insufficient and ineffective," and the \ statement that while the trade talks j with Germany had been interrupted "there were signs they might be resumed." THE FALL OF LITVINOV. M. Molotov had already replaced M. Litvinov, the Foreign Commissar whose name in the West had come to mean Russia's policy of participating in a scheme for collective security. Now M. Molotov declared that while the Western nations had abandoned collective security for a policy of appeasement "the Soviet opposes both these views." In the last two months there has been a whole series of events which i only now, in the light of our knowledge of the non-aggression pact, can ■ be fitted into the general historical pattern. The first was the hurried visit to his homeland by the German Ambassador to Moscow at the time the delegation to go to Russia for the trade talks was being chosen. Another was the insistence by one Nazi leader after another for week after week that Danzig was going to return to the Reich, that it was going back at once, and that it would return without a war. More than once a prominent Nazi declared that the return would be made "in a manner which will surprise you." It was obvious that the Germans had some plan, but no one guessed what that plan could be. Finally there was the broadcast to be made by Herr Foerster, the Nazi leader of Danzig, in | the Free City on August 10 at which a surprise was promised. The speech was made, but it contained no surprise; either the time was not ripe or there had been an indiscretion which had resulted in rebuke and sealed the lips of the exriltant Danziger. A MILITARY MISSION. All this time the negotiations between Britain and Russia dragged on, with gradual results. At the end of last month it was universally expected in Britain that there would be a pact, and a good one because the British Government was becoming reconciled to the fact that the Russians would not give way, that any pact must be largely on the Soviet terms. Hence a military mission was dispatched to Russia. And when it arrived not one Soviet newspaper mentioned the fact. During the previous few weeks the progress of the Anglo-Russian talks had received very little attention, and at the end of last month "Pravda" was still attacking the democracies and declaring that "certain countries want to divert the war menace from themselves and direct it towards the Soviet Union." .This, of course, was reminiscent of the tone of the Russian Press 'after Lord Halifax's "we will discuss anything" speech in June, a speech j'which "The. Times" admitted had raised suspicions "in not a few quarters both at home and abroad." The Secretary of Foreign Affairs had told the House of Lords that "provided the independence of nations is recognised," Britain is "not only willing but anxious to explore the whole question of living space, not only with Germany, but with all European nations."

Thus the clues to the great surprise are to be detected, and thus Europe, marches towards an uncertain future.