REVOLT IN SPAIN

Evening Post, Volume CXXII, Issue 70, 19 September 1936, Page 11

REVOLT IN SPAIN

THE TREND OF EVENTS HOW INSURRECTION FAILED LONG FIGHT LIKELY Today is the twenty-eighth day of the Spanish Civil War and the pitiless struggle, waged in the heat of a PeninsulaJr midsummer, goes madly, fiercely on, wrote Bertram Willemore in the "Daily Telegraph" on August 14. Neither side has yet come near to Winning, and, it is difficult to be sure after four, weeks if either is even gaining! much ground. The end may be a long time coming, and much brave, idealistic blood must inevitably flow on both sides before it does. Though the war began as an army revolt, irl the traditional haughty style, •consequences have already accrued which have given it a, far more terrible significance. The army had'lost patience with a. civil Government which it considered weak, inefficient, and a danger to the maintenance of any national order. But the fight, which on similar occasions in the past had been' short and sometimes even bloodless, has been prolonged. The issue has had time to deepen, until today the nation has been completely divided against itself, divided into its two fundamental components: Right and Left. All the natural elements of the Right in the country—the rich, the employers, the Conservatives, the Monarchists, the Fascists, the Church—have come in, voluntarily or involuntarily, on the side of the army. Aligned with the Government.: or even in advance of it, are ranged nearly all the ranks of the peasants and the labourers, whether Socialist. Communist, or Anarchist.

Of late there has been a tendency for the war to take on a symbolic significance as well. Both sides have sensed with eager pleasure that Europe is once more taking Spanish affairs really seriously,- a thing that has not happened for a century or more. Once again, they feel, Spain is becoming a touchstone to the fate of Europe, as she was in,the days of the great Moorish danger and later of the great Napoleonic danger. SYMPATHY WITH THE LEFT.

They realise that the democratic countries, generally speaking, sympathise with Spain's Left forces and the Fascist countries with Spain's Right. ' The way Spain goes -may be the' way that all Europe will eventually go. And so both sides are fighting with even greater ardour than they showed at first. General Franco and his followers planned to achieve power quickly, by a sudden, paralysing coup d'etat. They failed. But they had crossed their Rubicon, and they have now settled down grimly to do o.r die. They know that if they lose they will lose all, and that there will never be another chance for an army, officered by aristocrats, to govern Spain. Senor Largo CalDallero, the Socialist leader, if no one else, will see to that if the Government wins.

The insurgents' best hope of victory lay in quick surprise. Now they seem to have lost the initiative in some parts of the country. They are apparently gaining.ground near San Sebastian and Irun, at Badajoz, and now at Malaga, but they are losing it in the Guadarrama mountains and at Saragossa. The Government seems to be.obtaining mastery of the Balearic Islands, and only in Morocco are the insurgents completely secure, though they are in undisputed power in and around Seville.

Their ranks have been largely increased by volunteers from the' Right parties, and many peasants in Galicia and the Basque Provinces also seem to have joined them. Numerically, they are undoubtedly very formidable opponents, even though they are outnumbered by the forces of the Left. Their real strength, though, does not lie in numbers, but in discipline and organisation."•' It is precisely in discipline and organisation that the Left—the loyalists, the Communists, the Marxists, call them,'what you will—are dangerously weak. MISSED OPPORTUNITY. The Government still has a good deal of power to lead and direct—more probably than is generally imagined, but their followers (or masters), the Left extremists, cannot even now'always forget their allegiance to the numerous political schools Of thought and trade unions—whics are . commonly known by their initials, for the sake presumably of simplicity. , Disunity spells danger of defeati and in this sense time is on the side of the insurgents, with their single-minded aims. General Franco, in particular, seems to realise this, for his advances are all being made apparently / on the principle of "slow, but sure:" Both sides have made mistakes. The Government does not seem to have utilised to anything like its best effect its great naval superiority. Perhaps the individual ships have been acting more on the initiative of their own crews. than at the direction of the central Government. •' Great numbers of General Franco's Moors and Foreign : Legionaries have been ferried safely to Spain from Morocco across straits that r should have been unwearyingly "patrolled by the Government's warships. . General Franco, for his part, may' regret the day he brought over the Moors.* Their presence may excite more hatred thaii fear among his opponents. ' Neither was it wise, of the Burgos "Government" to impose an income tax in the Basque Provinces, as .they are reported to, have done. The independent Basques have never yet paid income tax to anyone. iWhat will happen if the insurgents win? .

There will be a day of stern judgment for hundreds, and possibly thousands, of extremists. Quick sentences will descend on the heads of many Left leaders, and, in particular, little mercy need be expected for the foreign agitators and Communists whom General Franco believes to be the i prime fomenters of anarchy and revolution among the masses. RULE WITH IRON HAND.

The victors will probably be much less revengeful on the rank and file of the Left than might be feared, though, they will rule: for the future with an iron hand, and any outbreak against them will be suppressed with cold ruthlessness. The Government will be centralised in every way possible, and the aspirations of Catalonia and the Basque Provinces for autonomy will probably be discouraged. The nation will become internationally stronger. It may be reiterated that it is highly improbable that there will be a restoration of the Monarchy, since many of the rebel leaders are avowed Republican's. These include General Mola, leader of the insurgents in .the north,, and they, did include 'General Goded, who has just paid with his life for his unsuccessful part in the insurrection.

The Monarchists naturally belong to the Right in Spain. But they are in a minority, even of the Right, and the most ardent 1, among them can hardly consider a restoration practicable or even desirable for a long time to come. It would not help to popularise a dictatorship of the Right.

Even so, nothing is impossible in Spairt, the country of paradoxes and surprises. General Franco is a confessed .Monarchist, and. is reported to be going to take the salute today at a military march past to celebrate the hoisting at Seville of the' old red and yellow Monarchist flag. If the Left, win there will be a different tale to tell. The future will be unpredictable. First, despite the efforts of the Government, there will probably be an orgy of exaltation, an orgy whose ' principal events will be blood-letting and arson. MONARCHIST PROPHECY.

No less a person than the late Senor Calvo Sotelo, the Monarchist leader, prophesied that Spain' was bound to have, a dictatorship of the Right or the Left, and it may well be that some sort of dictatorial Communistic regime will be set up." But Communism is really alien to Spain. It is quite possible that the Republican Government will, however precariously, ride the storm. if it does anarchy may remain rife and the nation will almost certainly remain weak internationally. While the various political factions quarrel among themselves slow progress may be made towards democratic prosperity. There Will be considerable decentralisation of control. Autonomy will probably be granted to Catalonia and other provinces, or taken by' them. Communities and villages and perhaps whole districts, particularly in the more remote rural areas, will' largely rule themselves. These things will, perhaps, happen in the beginning of. a new ■ regime either of the Right or the Left. But neither regime is likely to become permanent. Spain is a land of violence, of a broiling sun and broiling passions, a land. where there is no compromise and where peace' and quiet do not seem ever to last for long, because there is so much wealth contrasting with so much poverty, and because tolerance, is almost unknown. ' 4 Whichever side wins the present civil war, Spain will continue for a long time to be a land divided against itself. The hatred between the two halves of the nation, Right and Left, will not heal and be forgotten when one side has exacted the full price for victory with the bloody suppression of the other.