Poll shows move to National

Press, 18 November 1981, Page 21

Poll shows move to National

Wellington reporter A large section of uncertain voters are distributing themselves among the three main parties, according to their present national levels of support. A poll released this week conducted by Radio New Zealand and Victoria University, shows that in three marginal North Island electorates people who said formerly that they were uncertain which party to support were now turning to National (32 per cent). Labour (21 per cent) and Social Credit (13 per cent). This corresponds with findings of the latest “New Zealand Herald”-National Research Bureau national opinion poll which put support for National at 42 per cent, Labour at 35 per cent and Social Credit at 22 per cent.

Thirty per cent of the people who said they were uncertain when the first stage of the radio-university poll was held in August, were still uncertain when the second stage was held late in October. The poll, which is being conducted by Dr P. Thirkell, a lecturer in business administration, and Mr R. Brookes, a senior lecturer in marketing and administration, is being conducted in three stages in nine electorates held to be the keys in any. forecast of the result of the General Election. Although the sample is small (200 in each electorate) the poll is designed to show a clear swing by interviewing, the same person three times. Final interviews are now in progress in the nine seats. The error is between 4.5 per cent to 6 per cent and ran-

dom probability methods are used. In Lyttelton the survey shbws that at the second stage Labour had increased its lead over National, and the Social Credit share of the vote was unchanged. In Selwyn, National had increased its lead over Labour. Although uncertain voters are now expressing their preference and spreading themselves proportionately among the parties, people who expressed a clear option in the first stage shifted to another party in stage two. Mr Brookes says that although there is no aggregate shift in party support many voters are changing allegiance. In the three North Island electorates sampled — Onehunga, Western Hutt and Mirimar — more than, one • third of people who stated a clear National choice in the first stage shifted allegiance to other parties. Slightly more Labour voters said they would vote for a different party, and Social Credit had the lowest voter loyalty — 27 per cent at the second stage said they would stay with Social Credit. Of those shifting, most were going to National. Of eight issues said to be the ones causing most concern only three altered to lesser significance. They were industrial relations, law and order and social issues. Those remaining topi on the list were unemployment, the economy and inflation.