Vicious oil struggle feared

Press, 24 April 1980, Page 9

Vicious oil struggle feared

NZPA-Reuter Washington The world faces a risky struggle between the Western and Soviet-bloc alliances

for diminishing oil supplies in the 1980 s, the United States Central Intelligence Agency director (Admiral Stansfield Turner) has said. A serious disruption of oil supplies from the Middle East oil-producing countries to the industrialised nations

of the West was probable, he said in a report on the international energy outlook to the Senate Energy Committee. Admiral Turner told the packed committee hearing: “Politically, the cardinal Issue is how vicious the struggle for energy supplies will become.

“This competition willTSoviet’ oil output will prob-

create a severe test of the cohesiveness of both the Western and Eastern alliances.’’

Developing forms of cooperation among oil-con-suming countries to regulate the competition and prevent it from becoming mutually destructive would constitute a critical challenge the intelligence director said. “The entrance of the So-

viet Union ’ into the . free world’s competition for oil not only further squeezes oil supplies available to the West, but also entails major security risks,” he said. | The Central Intelligence' Agency, which' . Admiral Turner heads iit his role as director of all United States intelligence efforts, believes

ably peak this year at less than 12 million barrels a day, and begin falling next year.

The C.l.A.’s conservative estimate is that under the best conditions, the Soviet Union, the world’s largest oil producer, will shift from a position of being a net oil exporter to a net importer by 1985. The intelligence agency expects Moscow to make an intense effort to obtain oil at concessionary prices from the oil-producing countries through barter deals, sometimes involving arms sales. "More forceful action, ranging from covert subversion to intimidation, or, in the extreme, military action, cannot be ruled out Admiral Turner told the committee.

He predicted that obstacles to securing a stable flow of oil from the Gulf to the United States would be magnified during the 1980 s.

"The physical security of the oil routes and any of the Gulf Oilfields is tenuous, and any major intra-regional conflicts — such as another Iran or another Arab-Israeli war — could well lead to some disruption of oil supplies,” he said. Also, in the view of friendly governments in the Gulf, America’s ability to offer protection had been seriously eroded. Admiral Turner, in response to questions by committee members, would not assess the chances of a Middle-East oil cut-off during the decade.