THE PRESS SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 1978. Dilemmas in Iran

Press, 4 November 1978, Page 14

THE PRESS SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 1978. Dilemmas in Iran

The strike that practically halted exports of oil from Iran had the potential to hurt the country greatly but did not in itself mark a new stage in the political unrest in Iran. Many sections of the Iranian work-force have been on strike recently, and sooner or later the vital oil industry was bound to be hit badly In a country in which open strikes were unknown until recently, the full impact has not yet been felt. The strike by oil workers mav have demonstrated that such a stopnage could cripple the country, which is already troubled by capital flowing out and a resultant need to borrow If that is the lesson taken from the strike the Shah of Iran is in more serious trouble than he has been already from the protests against his autocratic ways.

The martial law imposed on parts of the country seems to be holding the situation in check to a certain extent but this imposition has itself become a focus for protest. Iran faces a dilemma: presumably martial law will continue while the unrest lasts: but protest is directed in part against martial law The Shah himself is caught in another dilemma. He has discerned, possibly too late, that he needs to liberalise his rule before the tide turns against him But the liberalisation is being read by some as an indication that he is already in retreat. The events are bound to be dramatic: some have already been tragic.

Some of the causes of discontent have been analysed in “The Press’’ by

a staff member who was in Iran recently. The Muslim clergy, the liberals, and the Left-wingers have combined in protests. Some of the Muslim clergy would like to see the establishment of an orthodox Islamic State —a future on which a number of liberals would not look with equanimity. If the Shah does step down h seems unlikely that the protesters will find that they have much in common. The liberal observer can afford to take some heart from the vigour shown by the opposition in the Majlis, the Lower House of Parliament. Caustic comments have been made about the Government being under the thumb of the Shah. For its part the new Government has shown a greater awareness of what needs to be done and may assert more independence.

Although the wealth from oil has drifted down to some extent so that the living standards of Iranians have improved. the Shah appears to lack a clear popular base in any section of the community. He is reported to be shaken by this discovery As long as the Armed Forces remain loyal, the Shah looks secure. Yet continuing unrest in the community must eventually cause divisions from which the Armed Forces cannot remain unaffected. Iran is a very important market for New Zealand produce and a major supplier of oil to New Zealand, so that events there have some bearing on this country New Zealand must hope that the present instability in Iran does not lead to any foreign intervention.