ARMS TALKS IRONY

Press, Volume CXI, Issue 32777, 30 November 1971, Page 24

ARMS TALKS IRONY

(By

PETER STRAFFORD

of "The Times," through N.Z.P.A.)

VIENNA.

“The most important negotiation of the twentieth century” was how one of the American delegates described the resumed American- Russian talks on the limitation of strategic nuclear arms.

These talks, often known as S.A.L.T., are now on their careful painstaking course again in Vienna, and the hope is that it will be possible to reach an agreement, in the coming months. The American’s description is bound to sound like hyperbole. But the fact is that the talks are a crucial attempt, now being made for the first time, to put a limit on the development of more and more advanced weapons. This is a development of great importance at a time when there is a dangerous build-up of armaments all over the world. “JANE’S” PREDICTION

The opening of the new round in Vienna in fact more or less coincided with the publication of the latest volume of “Jane’s Weapons Systems.” “Jane’s" suggested that a “new wave of rearmament” might now be rising and pointed to the irony of a situation in which there were negotiations like S.A.L.T. on the one hand and more nuclear tests and arms programmes on the other.

The irony is there, of course, but on an optimistic view it is unavoidable.

Until there actually is an agreement, both the Russians and the Americans feel that they have to continue to develop advanced weapons, partly so that they can negotiate from strength and partly so that neither feels caught out if in the end no agreement is reached. This, presumably, is why the new round was heralded by the huge underground explosion at Amchitka, in the Aleutians. The Americans considered the explosion to be necessary for the development of their own anti-baiiistic missile (A.8.M.) system, itself an important element in the negotiations.

If there is an agreement, on the other hand, the hope is that it will at least do

something to stop this process.

The Russians and the Americans should no longer feel bound to spend quite so much money on developing more and more advanced weapons, and this should have calming effects on rearmament elsewhere in the world. EXAMPLE TO OTHERS

At present, of course, the limitation talks are dealing only with the very advanced weapons which only the Russians and the Americans can afford. If there is an agreement over the coming months, it is likely to deal essentially with limits on A.B.M. systems, while including some measures for the limiting of intercontinental ballistic missiles (1.C.8.M.’5). It will, however, be a striking demonstration by the two Super-Powers that they have reached an understanding and are prepared to actually limit arms. It will be a new element of stability and they will undoubtedly use it as an argument to persuade other, less-advanced countries to give up any ideas they might have for developing nuclear armaments. How far this could be successful has still to be seen. China, for one, has always regarded such AmericanRussian negotiations as S.A.L.T. as just an attempt

to maintain the dominant positions of Washington and Moscow in the world.

It has refused to have anything to do with the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Others, such as India, might feel that it does not affect their military needs as they see them. For the time being, however, both Russians and Americans seem convinced that an agreement is going to be valuable, at least for themselves, The negotiations are being conducted with great seriousness and neither side has allowed external incidents to interfere with their course.

The Americans obviously are aware of the Russian build-up in recent years. The Defence Secretary (Mr Melvin Laird) has made the point clearly in Washington. But in general they seem convinced that the Russians see the advantages of rough parity in nuclear weapons and are not likely to try for a situation of superority. The point is made that the essential need is to have “second - strike capability," that is, the possibility of hitting back after an initial attack by the other side. This capability is more important than the exact number of missiles or warheads on either side. U.N. TREATY TALKS

Meanwhile, also in Vienna, attempts are being made to bring the nuclear non-pro-liferation treaty into full effect. Negotiations are now going on between the international Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations body responsible for the safeguards under the treaty, and the countries which have signed it. The object of the safeguards is to ensure that countries which have no nuclear capacity in the military sector do not use materials from civil plants to develop one.

This will involve inspections, which are always a matter of some delicacy, and the details have to be negotiated.

One of the principal negotiations, on which much else will depend, is the one between the Atomic Energy Agency, and the five members of the European Community which have signed the treaty—all, that is, except France.

The main point is that the five are already subject to controls from Euratom, the Community’s nuclear arm and, broadly speaking, they consider this to be sufficient.

The implications are worldwide, because countries such as Japan will be watching carefully to see what arrangements West Germany, as a member of Euratom, reaches.

In the Atomic Energy Agency it is hoped that th* negotiations with Euratom can be completed by the spring, and a great boost given at the same time to the principle of nuclear nonproliferation.