Solution Expected For Population Problem

Press, Volume C, Issue 29567, 17 July 1961, Page 5

Solution Expected For Population Problem

IB]/

TAKESHI SATO]

TOKYO Japan’s persistent population problem, which once drove the nation’s militarists to seek expansion abroad, should be solved during the next 10 years, according to experts and officials here.

Many social and economic questions arising out of the national pattern of population will remain, and new ones may appear. But the old thesis, that the four Japanese islands, smaller in total area than the state of California and poor in natural resources, are simply too small for a population approaching 100,000,000, is becoming increasingly untenable. When Japan lost her colonial Empire, many people wondered how she could feed her people, who multiplied at a high speed before World War 11. Since then, the Japanese population has increased by about 20,000,000, including a large number of repatriates. Japan has survived. Her industries are now booming, and her rice output has risen almost to a level at which no imports of rice are necessary. • Suggestions are occasionally put forward that Japanese should emigrate en masse to some remote areas. These schemes are brushed aside by officials, who now believe that the fast expanding Japanese industries should absorb most of the surplus population. They say that emigration has its merits, but can scarcely be a cure for over-population in Japan. The nation’s rapid economic growth has brought about a shortage of both industrial engineers and young, unskilled labour. Newspapers report that many smaller enterprises, such as wine shops and tea houses as well as some larger firms, including textile mills, are finding it difficult to recruit sufficient labour. Labour Ministry officials declare that an "epoch-making improvement” in the employment situation has taken place and is expected to continue. Sustained Growth The phenomenon is attributed to “a sustained economic growth at an unusual rate,” and particularly to the rapid development of the metal and machinery industries. “The recent rise in employment may be taken to reflect a structural change caused by a shift of emphasis by the Japanese economy to heavy and chemical industries.” they said. Officials agree, however, that changes in the employment situation have not been spread evenly. While most unemployment statistics show a remarkable improvement the number of totally unemployed persons has declined to less than 300,000 compared with nearly 800,000 previously—the number of casual workers seeking jobs at public employment offices has not declined. This indicates that many middleaged workers are •still unable to find work and a semiofficial body has been set up to help train discharged coal miners and other unemployed workers for new work. Officials believe that the unbalanced development is due largely to the limited nature of the Japanese labour market. Most Japanese companies recruit young people leaving middle schools, high schools, colleges, and Universities once a year. These are expected to work for their companies until they retire, and' wages are paid mainly' on the basis of seniority, with the result that efficiency and ability are sometimes sacrificed. Lower Wages Demand for labour is concentrated on school-leavers and other young workers, who can be employed at lower wages for the same

work. The housing shortage is another obstacle to the free transfer of labour. Another factor is that technological innovations in some industries have made the skill of many workers obsolete. With the advent of automation these can now be replaced by younger employees Qn itihe other hand, the demand for scientists and engineers greatly exceeds supply. Demographic experts report that both births and deaths have declined in Japan in recent years, and come more in line with Western patterns. The total population on October 1, 1960, was 93,400,000, representing an increase of 4,130.000 over 1955. But the rise was smaller than the 6,070,000 for the 1950-55 period. The experts believe that the present shortage of young unskilled labour may be eased in the next five years, when boys and girls, bom during the “baby boom” of the immediate postwar years, join Japan's work force. But a more acute labour shortage than at present may appear later if the Japanese Government’s 10 year programme to double the national output succeeds. The crucial question in the 1965-70 period will be whether Japanese agriculture, which keeps nearly half of Japan’s population busy, can be modernised sufficiently to release enough workers for the expanding industries. Liberalisation of the labour market, involving many changes in traditional practices will be necessary, while the social security system will have to be extended. Some Japanese businessmen predict that as Japan approaches a welfare state and full employment, her population problem at least in its old form will be solved. But her greatest advantage in the export markets, a surplus labour force and low wages, will be lost