EXPORT OF N.Z. PRODUCTS

Press, Volume XCIII, Issue 27988, 7 June 1956, Page 14

EXPORT OF N.Z. PRODUCTS

CHANGES IN NEXT TWENTY YEARS VIEW OF CHRISTCHURCH ECONOMISTS (New Zealand Press Association) WELLINGTON, June 6. “We believe that one should reckon with the possibility that in the future --perhaps 20 years hence—New Zealand .will have to export products of the manufacturing industry in addition to her traditional exports of farm products,” read a letter to the Board of Trade from three economists on the staff of Canterbury University College. The board is holding a hearing with a view to formulating general recommendations on customs tariff. The joint submission was made by Dr. C. Weststrate, professor of economics, Mr A. J. Danks, associate professor of economics, and Mr G. M. Miller, senior lecturer in economics. Their representations concerned the general principles which should be followed in ,the review of customs tariff.” ' • .“The need for imports will grow’ with the growth of population,” said the economist. “If the need for imports will increase by about 50 per cent. (the expected increase in population) during the next 20 years, it is questionable whether this increase can be covered by an increase in agrarian exports. Officers of the Department of Agriculture have estimated the average annual increase in farm output available for export over the 30 years after 1954 at 1.8 per cent. Not compounded, this is 36 per cent in 20 years. “If this estimate is correct, exports of farm products will have to be supplemented by exports of other products, if New Zealand is to maintain the flow of imports she needs for the well-being of her people. “A gap of 14 per cent, would mean that the supplement would have to amount to £35,008,000 to £40,000,000 (at present prices). It is most unlikely that such a supplement will be provided entirely by the exports of the' new industry based on forestry (total annual production of the Tasman Pulp and Paper Company has been officially estimated at £7,500,000).

“Therefore, exports of manufacturing industry may. be required. Manufacturing industry will be able to export only if it can compete in overseas markets. It is unlikely that it will be able to do so if it is working behind a wall of protection. “We submit that the possibility that some branches of manufacturing industry will have to make contributions to New Zealand’s exports in the forseeable future has to be one of the factors—and perhaps an important factor—in the determination of the structure and the height df tariff protection of New Zealand industry.”