D—6

submission as to parachute attack may be regarded as irrelevant, as it might equally well be said that the aerodrome would be subjected to bombing and/or naval bombardment and that therefore the ■extension of the road was unnecessary. 6. Summarized, the Chiefs of Staff opinions are—(a) A tunnel rather than a bridge. (b) The Fanshawe Street - Northcote site preferred. (c) Definitely no bridge, Parnell-Devonport. (d) Road extension strongly recommended. (Sgd.) J. R. Page, Lt.-Col., Secretary, Chiefs of Staff Committee. Referring to the opinions expressed in the summary contained in paragraph 6 of the above-quoted statement, we do not at present recommend the construction of a tunnel on any site because of its prohibitive cost. We take the view that the points made by the Chiefs of Staff Committee against the construction of a bridge crossing the harbour on approximately the alignment recommended by us are intended not so much as definite objections to such a bridge as arguments in favour of the alternative of a tunnel. Having regard to the contemplated provision of road access to the north via Whenuapai and to the views expressed by the Air Department, we do not think that the considerations advanced against the construction of a bridge on the site xecommended by us are sufficiently cogent to outweigh its very great value to metropolitan Auckland, together with what we believe to be its military value. (6) Forecasts of Population and Traffic For the purpose of our report we have described the Auckland metropolitan area as including part of the Waitemata County, between Albany and the east coast north of Brown's Bay, within a radial distance of 9| miles from the chief post-office at Auckland. Though our limitation of the radial distance to 9| miles may appear to be conservative, we think that we should point out that we are not entitled entirely to ignore the implications of the word "metropolitan" and extend the area indefinitely. We consider, however, that it is probable that a large part of the traffic proceeding to and from the additional area lying within a radial distance of 13 miles from the chief post-office, Auckland, will find it more convenient to travel by the bridge route. The northern boundary of this ■area extends from a point near the junction of the No. 5 State Highway and Postman's Road to a point on the sea-coast slightly north of Okura River. Traffic proceeding to and from a still more distant area served by the East Coast Bays Road to a point as far north as Silverdale will also find the bridge route more convenient. We have indicated both the 9| miles and the 13 miles arcs on the locality map accompanying this report. Our estimates of population and traffic, which now follow, are in respect of the area bounded by the 9£ miles arc. Allowing for an increment of population. since the census of 1945, we assess the present-day population of the four North Shore boroughs at 30,500. A forecast of the 1965 population contained in the report of the Auckland Metropolitan Planning Scheme, •dated July, 1943, was 55,000, while the ultimate population was estimated at 96,000. The estimate of population for 1965 assumed improved forms of transport between .all parts of the North Shore area and the city. We point out, however, that estimates made in 1943 could not have taken into account the recent announcement of the Government's plans for improvements to the rail and road transportation systems, and of its intention to proceed with large-scale housing projects, all on the south side of the harbour, and likely to attract population to that side. Furthermore, because of the existence of deep-water berths and port facilities, with road and rail connections thereto, it is certain that industries will develop far more rapidly on the city side of the harbour than on the North Shore, and that the majority of the population engaged in industry will prefer to reside on the southern side, in close proximity to their work. Again, it is by no means certain that the rapid increase in urban and suburban population which resulted from the establishment of industries during the war years will continue •.at the same rate.

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