pi. 3i

The figures for the twenty-year period 1887-1906 show a decline in the proportion of births to every marriage in the preceding year from 5"31 to 3-21, as below : — Proportion of Births Y ear Marriages. 6 Marriage solemnised rsirins. in the p reoe( ii n g Year. 1886 3,489 1887 3,565 18,518 5-31 1888 3,617 18,325 5-14 1889 ... ... 3,632 17,845 4-93 1890 3,797 17,675 4-87 1891 3,805 17,635 4-64 1892 4,002 17,283 4-54 1893 4,115 17,514 437 1894 4,178 17,824 4-33 1895 ... ■ 4,110 17,711 4-24 1896 17,778 4-32 1896 4,843 1897 ... ... 4,928 17,911 . 370 1898 5,091 18,154 3-68 1899 ... -. ••• 5,461 18,006 3-54 1900 5,860 18,640 341 1901 6,095 19,554 3-34 1902 6,394 19,734 323 1903 ... ... ... 6,748 20,835 3-26 1904 6,983 21,737 3-22 1905 7,200 22,600 3-24 1906 23,120 3-21 If the average result be taken out for the ten years 1887-96, it will be found to represent 4-67 births to a marriage. Dealing similarly with the figures for 1897-1906 the result is an average of 338, so that regarded annually or decennially there is a decided fall to be observed. In the Australian States a similar decrease is noticeable. New Zealand had in 1880 the highest birth-rate (40-78) ; in 1900 the case was reversed; but in 1906 the New Zealand rate was higher than that of Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia. The movement over ten years is calculated as under : —

Birth-rates per 1,000 of Population.

This table shows that although New Zealand had in 1900 the lowest birth-rate in Australasia, the rate in this colony for 1906 was higher than that of New South Wales, Victoria, and some others. A declining birth-rate is noticeable in many civilised countries, and attention has been drawn by Btatisticians°and political economists to the serious consequences that may result. That fertility among women in New Zealand is decreasing, from whatever causes, further facts will tend to show. Taking the number of married women in New Zealand at what may be considered the childbearing ages (i.e., from 15 to 45 years, inclusive) as shown by each census since 1878, and for the same years the number of legitimate births (excluding plural) registered, the birth-rate per 1,000 married women of the above-stated ages is easily found, and is shown to be steadily declining. In 1878 the rate was 337 per 1,000, in 1896 it had fallen to 252, in 1901 to 244, and in 1906 to 228; or, in other words, in 1878 one married woman of the ages specified in every three gave birth to a'child, while in 1906 the rate was less than one in four. The figures for each census year are given below.

XII

State or Colony. I 1897. 1898. 1899. 1900. ! 1901. 1902. 1903. 1904. 1905. 1900. I 1 Queensland Jew South Wales Victoria iouth Australia Vestern Australia Tasmania lew Zealand ... 29-92 28-42 2659 26-97 25-82 27-73 25-96 28-28 2744 25-72 24-98 29-35 26-24 25-74 I 27-31 30-21 27-10 27-43 26-71 25-82 25-51 25-78 3064 31-46 25-98 28-25 25-12 25-60 28-28 27-60 25-77 25-39 30-32 28-40 26-34 27-68 27-17 2523 24-85 30-09 28-95 25-89 24-71 27-12 25-28 ; 26-73 24-46 : 24-65 23-43 24-70 30-27 30-34 28-61 29-59 26-61 26-94 25-92 26-73 24-83 23-82 30-30 29-32 27-22 26-31 27-04 25-14 23-54 30-02 29-52 27-08