17

H.—2.

Before we could value the benefits much time had to be spent in constructing the necessary tables, and this work has very materially delayed the valuation, a circumstance we much regret, but could not help. (c.) As regards the present value of the future contributions of members: The contribution being the same at all ages and in all cases—whether the member be married or single, or a widower — the present value has been found by multiplying the present value of £1 per annum at each age (Manchester Unity Table), and payable twice a year (1) by the annual contribution, and (2) by the number of members in the society at each age, and then summing up the column. The total so obtained amounts to £2,668 ss. Bd. (d.) In regard to the present value of the benefits to widows: We had to consider, first, the value of the future payments to the widows who were on the fund at the date of valuation, and, second, the number of widows who may yet declare on it, and the value of their benefits. The number of widows receiving benefits at the date of valuation was 13, their ages varied from 24 (last birthday) to 69, the average age being 42f years, and the periods during which the benefits were payable varied from 11 months to 5 years 9 months. In consideration of the benefits being payable quarterly, the necessary additions were made in each case, and an addition was also made to cover the time from the date of last payment to the date of valuation. The value of the benefits under this division we find to be £275 12s. The number of widows who may yet claim the benefits of the fund is definitely within limits, yet not susceptible of anything like exact determination, and we do not know of any tables of the various contingencies that have to be estimated that are at all suitable for your particular case. The various classes of widows that have to be included in the estimate are as follows: — (1.) Widows who may be left out of the 383 wives existing at the date of valuation; (2.) Widows who may be left out of the second or subsequent marriage of the 383 married members whose wives were alive at the date of valuation; (3.) Widows who may be left through the remarriage of widowers; (4.) Widows who may be left through the first marriage of members at present unmarried ; (5.) Widows who may be left through the second marriage of members at present unmarried. We estimate that the number of widows of the first class will be 210. Of the 173 members left widowers, we estimate that 130 will marry again; and, as the wives selected by them are likely to be several years younger than themselves, the proportion of widows that will be left is likely to be considerably greater than in the casejaf first wives. Accordingly we estimate that the number of widows of the second class will be 100. As the returns furnished to us did not distinguish between bachelors and widowers, we have considered the 241 single members as all bachelors, and therefore have not been able to make an estimate of the number of widows of the third and fourth classes separately. Turning back to Table 1., it will be seen that of the single members only 21 are over 45 years of age —that, in fact, 129, or over 50 per cent, of the whole, are under 25 years of age. Such being the case, a very large proportion may yet be expected to marry. Our estimate of this number is 187, and the number of widows left from such marriages we estimate at 103. Coming now to the last class, and reasoning as in regard to the second class, we estimate the number of widows who will be left through the second marriage of members at present unmarried at 47. Adding these various estimates together, we get a total of 460 as the number of widows who may yet claim the benefits of the fund. What we have now to consider is the present value of the benefits to these 460 widows. The value of this benefit depends (1) on the age of the member and the value of his life at the date of valuation ; and (2) on the age of the widow, and the value of her life when she enters upon the fund, together with the probability of her remarrying during the time the benefit is payable. At the date of valuation the mean age of the wives was about 3i years less than that of their husbands, and this difference is likely—in consequence of remarriages—to increase rather than diminish. Beyond this, it has been fully proved that female life as a whole is better than male, and these two circumstances require to be taken into account. There is, however, one circumstance which has a tendency to counteract the difference in age between the members and their wives, and also the superior longevity of female life, and that is the remarriages of widows. After much thought and deliberation, we have come to the conclusion that, for the present valuation, this contingency, which tends to lessen the value of the benefits, may be set against the two we have mentioned tending in an opposite direction, and hence that the ages of the wives may be assumed to be the same as that of their husbands. The mean age at death of the members now living at each age has been found by adding the mean after lifetime (Manchester Unity Experience) to the age at the date of valuation. The value of the benefit to the widow when she enters on it has been taken as equal to the value of an annuity of £7 4s. for six years on a life of the same age, less the mean age at death of the husband, and the present value of this annuity has been obtained by multiplying it by the present value of £1 at death of the husband. The total of the values so obtained is £5,177 9s. (e.) In regard to the present value of the benefits to children: Under this head we had to consider, first, the value of the future payments to the children who were on the fund at the date oi valuation ; and, second, the value of the benefits to the children who may yet become entitled to receive the benefits of the fund. At the date of the valuation the number of children receiving benefits was 26, and their ages varied from Ito 11 years, the average age being 6 years. The value of the future payments to these children was found by multiplying the sum payable yearly to each into a temporary annuity (payable quarterly) on each child's life till it reached the age of 12, and the total of the values so found amounts to £172 15s. 9d. The value of the benefits to the children who may yet become entitled to receive the benefits of the fund is much more difficult to estimate than in the case of the widows, because of the greater B—H. 2.