WHEN APRIL COMES.

Woodville Examiner, Volume XXVIII, Issue 4627, 7 May 1915, Page 2 (Supplement)

WHEN APRIL COMES.

NUMBERS EQUAL ON WESTERN FRONT. MR. BELLOC ON THE ROAD TO VICTORY. With the “ fundamental postulate” that —other things being equal, as they are in the present war —numbers are the deciding factor in the campaign, Mr. Hilaire Belloc offered some comforting reflections to the audience to whom he lectured at the Queen s Hall, London. The enemy began with a nnmercial preponderance in men and material; he still possessed it; but it was passing away, and if we could endure until it had passed it would have certain calculable effects in our favour. Therefore, wo had at the present moment sound reasons for patience, tor endurance, and for the determination not to permit an inconclusive peace. The burden still was, and would m the future be more and more, a very heavy one, and he feared a moment in winch —not despair, but moral fatigue, might handicap our own society, if not that of our Allies, and he wished to argue with all his force against any yielding to such fatigue. Germany looked for victory, swift and secure, and she did so with a fair margin of certainty, pe-c-ause the Whole conception with whicn she undertook and forced this campaign was on her superior numbers. At the beginning she "had in fully trained and equipped men a proportion of a little more than eight to a little less than six of the Allies. In the first phase of the war the preponderance of Germans in the west over French and English was at least three to one. In the battle of the Marne, without any question whaiever, the pursuers were only as something between 10 and 12 to 'something between 14 and 16 compared with the pursued; his own personal opinion war, that

1G AVERE BEING PURSUED BY TEN. In the west the German forces ha-3 never had a less preponderance than four to three, and in the early stages it was more like four to two and a ha f. So it was easy to understand why the enemy regarded a rapid and decisive victory as certain. If the Allies endured by*April or a little later they would be eight to eight, and by June perhaps nine or ten to eight against the Germans, and when' the preponderance shifted to our side wo should he far more certain of victory than the Geiinans were when they had the preponderance. There were various reasons lor this. The German Great General Staff had not envisaged a campaign against superior numbers; the whole ot the French strategy for generations had contemplated nothing else; and no should be dealing with an enemy who had not allowed tor such a contingency. The -100 miles of line in the nest were held by 2J millions of Germans —a lesser number could not hold it, and with our approaching predominance in numbers and artillery the work of attrition would <>■o on more rapidly. If the enemy did not break through there must come a time when his numbers would not be sufficient to hold the lino. And when, and if, he shortened his line we should be at the beginning of the end. The enemy would be on the run. Mr. x>olloc estimates that of the Allied troops who have been put into the firing line 25 per cent, have been hit and caught; of Germans 40 per cent. Of those but about half came back again. His personal conviction was that the enemy would not be brought to a serious pass in the matter of food, and that Germany would not suffer from a shortage of copper; hut in petrol,- horses, and rubber, which was essential, she must he dependent on outside supplies, and it we could make our blockade effective Germany would soon feel the pinch. AVliat would happen then, or when the enemv feared that his line must lie broken was that he would call lor a •‘draw.” In this he would have the support of three categories among the Allies —the fools, the knaves and the enthusiasts. The fools and knaves need not count, hut the enthusiasts, who hated war, and for whom he had the proloundest respect, must he especially kindl-v entreated. For when the enemy called for a draw it would he precisely because he was on the point' of cracking.