The Wanganui Chronicle. TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 1949 GENERAL ELECTION—OPENING PHASE

Wanganui Chronicle, 8 November 1949, Page 4

The Wanganui Chronicle. TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 1949 GENERAL ELECTION—OPENING PHASE

'"THE General Election has been developed through its opening 1 phase and now the issues should be getting clearer. It is remarkable that this clarification has not developed in the way that might reasonably have been expected.

The public is asking which way is the eat going to jump? The public being the cat. it is in the position of asking how it is itself going to behave? If there is any indication to be found in attendances at public meetings then there is reason for the Labour Party being very much concerned at the lack of drawing-power of the personality of the Prime Minister. 'Wanganui is considered by the Labour Party as a test seat. If the Wanganui public can be retained, then it is assumed that any decline in popularity throughout the country will not be of a landslide character, but if Wanganui cannot be held then a Dominion-wide landslide away from the Labour Party must be expected. There is good reason for taking this view of Wanganui an an indicator, Wliat indications are there today in Wanganui that reveal, or should reveal, the tendency of the public mind on the political issue? The first is the attendance at the meetings held by the party chiefs during last week. If attendance at these meetings is evidence then it is to be remarked that Mr. Holland was fortunate in having an audience that was more than twice that of Mr. Fraser. The former had the handicap of his meeting coinciding with the late shopping night so it may be assumed that on a night when the major counter-attraction was not operative, Mr. Holland’s audience would have been much larger than it was. It does not necessarily follow that the man who gets the larger audiences also gets the larger number of votes and a sampling of public opinion on the limited field of one provincial town must be regarded as inadequate. Taken by itself, then, the Wanganui Opera House meetings cannot be regarded as a satisfactory indicator of the trend of public opinion throughout the Dominion. The attendance at meetings of the candidates, however, may legitimately be added to the attendance at the Opera House meetings and here it is that the Labour Party has some cause for concern. Meetings held by the Nationalists on ground usually unfavourable to their party are being well attended. The two facts taken together may add up to something and they may not do so. Bitt they are two undeniable facts. How have the leaders fared in other centres? There the trend of public attendances has been dominantly in favour of Mr. Holland, while the attendances at Mr. Fraser’s meetings have been lower than he is entitled to expect. It cannot be said that Mr. Fraser fails to interest his audience, for he never fails in that direction. What, then, is the cause for the failure of public response to one man and the willingness to respond to the other? Leave that question unanswered for the moment, but recollect that in Wanganui this response is not confined to the Leader of the National Party only; it extends to Mr. O’Keeffe and to. Mr. Sheat as well. Mr. Sheat is a forceful speaker with an established reputation for hard hitting which is always attractive to the public, but Mr. O’Keeffe, while an attractive personality and known to a large number of young people, is a newcomer to the political platform. Yet he is attracting audiences to a greater degree than any other National candidate in recent election contests. It would be dangerous to ignore these phases of the campaign. It may be that Mr. Fraser’s tactics have been wrong, in that he has handed the initiative of the campaign to Mr. Holland. True, the former hoped to capture the front position conceded to Mr. Holland by addressing to that gentleman a series of questions. Mr. Holland has replied in effect by saying: “You tell your story and I will tell mine,” which has left Mr. Fraser beating the air. The ground which Mr. Fraser lost in Auckland has, consequently, never been recovered. Such lost ground again may not be fatal, but it would be idle to pretend that the campaign is going as well as it should have done if the Labour Party is to feel assured of winning the campaign. Further, it is significant that during this campaign no. other member of the Labour Party has as yet struck the public imagination or even its attention. Mr. Nash is a good campaigner, but as yet he has hardly been heard of. Mr. McLagan has limited uses, especially at a* time when the problems of the waterfront seem to have a way of refusing to remain quiescent, while Mr. Semple is a lively gentleman for all his advanced years, but he is probably not much of a vote-catcher today. The younger members of the Cabinet, are moving round the country and working hard, but as yet they do not appear to have been able to contribute much liveliness to the scene. This is matched by the leading members of the Nationalists who are also on the move. Generally speaking each candidate seems to be determined to look after his own particular piece of territory, realising that in this contest survival is the important achievement for the sitting member. On the present showing, it does not appear that any conclusive opinion may be drawn as to how the campaign is progressing. It can be said with confidence, however, that the advantages formerly enjoyed by the Labour Party, particularly the emotions of expectancy and hopefulness, which engender an enthusiasm in a party’s following are not that party’s characteristic today. The problem which confronts the campaign managers is how to revive that flagging enthusiasm. That is no easy task, but it does not follow that it cannot be done. The major mistake that has been made in the conduct of the campaign is to rely upon the emotion of Fear as a psychological stimulant to action. Fear is not a positive emotion: it does not ride the average healthy mind easily and it is natural for that healthy mind to endeavour to overcome any emotion, of Fear. Such an effort is a primary condition of life itself. Having relied upon fear as the impelling emotion for the opening phase of the campaign it is desirable that the second phase of the campaign shall introduce a new note. Can this be done? The problem is certainly a difficult one, for any move in the positive direction must go directly against the Fear complex that the first phase of the campaign has sought to set up. To turn to a positive note then now would for the Labour Party undo the work sought to be achieved in the first phase. On the other hand, to continue to promote the Fear complex and to hope to win the contest before that complex was overcome would be a gamble of a kind that should not lightly be engaged in. To hope to stimulate that unpleasant complex and at the same time proclaim what wonderful things have been done during the last 'fourteen years is to set out on a policy of internal conflict when viewed from the psychological angle. The results must be various and not harmonious. It is against this background of the Labour Party s efforts that the Nationalists have to retain the initiative, to inspire confidence by moderate statements and by expounding a policy which is practicable and sound financially. All they have to do is to keep on as they are going and all the mental hazards are left for their opponents. The second phase of the campaign should indeed be interesting to watch and to examine as it is in the process of development.