NEARING THE DAY

Wanganui Chronicle, Volume LXXXII, Issue 19443, 31 October 1925, Page 10

NEARING THE DAY

PROBABILITIES ANALYSED INDICATIONS OF GOVERNMENT VICTORY MANY SEATS IN THE BALANCE (Special to 41 Chronicle.”) WELLINGTON, Oct. 30. With the last week of the election campaign now well r* •' -r way, the prospects of parties tr-.; candidates are being freely discussed. Though there are a variety of interests in the field, the principal battle is recognised as being between the Government Party and the Labour Party. The other sections which have entered the fight arc the Nationalists, the Country Party and a few Independents. There' are definite lines of cleavage between the Government Party and the Labour Party. The Labour Party stands for the elimination of all forms of defence and for nationalisation of the homes and holdings of the people. The Government Party, led by Mr Coates, stands solid for adequate defence and for a freehold policy, under which every man who has a home will be able to call it his own without fear of interference by the State. The Government Party stands for sound finance as a first essential of State for the development of the resources of the country on business lines and for equal opportunities to all and a total disregard of sectional interests. The Prime Minister, the Hon. J. G. Coates, has nearly completed his New Zealand campaign. Wherever he has gone he has ridden on a wave of personal popularity and public esteem, and there is not the slightest doubt that the night of November 4 will find him returned to power with a majority greater than that which he had when he took up the leadership of the country a few months ago.

To begin at the north of the country, one finds an interesting situation in the Bay of Islands seat, where the retiring member, Mr Allen Bell, who is standing in the interests of the Government Party, is opposed by four candidates— Nationalist, Labour,' Country Party and Liberal. Mr Bell’s most difficult opponent is thought to bn Mr Sweeney, of the Country Party, but it is fully expected that the seat will not chance hands. z

In Marsden, Mr Murdoch is in grave danger of losing his seat to Mr W. Jones, who carries the Government banner, but the contest is open. Kai para will plump solidly for the Hon. ,T. G. Coates, and his friends will not bo in the least surprised if his majority is a record. The contest there is s straight-out fight, and Mr Coates’ opponent is a Labour nominee, Mr W. E. Barnard.

Mr A. Harris is expected to retain Waitemata for the Government, despite the fight which has been put up to shift him.

Sir James Parr is unlikely to forego his claim to represent Eden. Auckland East, Auckland Central and Auckland West seem likely to return their present Labour representatives, Messrs Lee, Parry and Savage; but in Grey Lynn Miss Melville has an excellent chance of defeating Mr Bartram, who has sat in Parliament as the nominee of the Labour Party. If Miss Melville is successful she will be the first woman to be elected to the New Zealand Parliament.

Roskill is expected to stick to Mr Potter, and Parnell will give Mr J. S. Dickson another big majority. In the Manukau electorate Mr John Massey, a brother of the late Prime Minister, is putting up an excellent fight against the Labour candidate, Mr Jordan, who sat in the last Parliament, and though the polling will be close, it is quite on the cards that Mr Massey will win.

Franklin will stick to Mr McLennan, who won by such a huge majority in the by-election which followed Mr Massey’s death, and the Government will retain Raglan and Tauranga also per medium of the Hon. R. F. Bollard and Mr C. E. MacMillan.

In Thames, Mr T. W. Rhodes has three opponents, but the indications are that he will hold the seat for the Government Party. Mr H. Poland will, of course, be very hard to beat in the Ohinemuri electorate, and the chances are that he will be returned. He is standing as an Independent.

A close contest is expected in Waitomo, where Messrs J. C. Rolleston (Government) and W. J. Broadfoot (Nationalist) are fighting what looks to be a very even battle. Over in Gisborne the chances are that Mr W. D. Lysnar will be reelected, and if so he will be found supporting the Government in essential matters, and Mr K. 8. Williams retains the Bay of Plenty seat for the Government without the necessity of a poll, no one thinks it worth while opposing him.

Hamilton will retain the services of Mr J. A. Young (Government), and the Waikato seat, which was won by Mr F. Lye for the Liberals in 1922 on a big minority vote, is almost certain to send Mr D. S. Reid to Parliament. Mr Reid supports the Government. Mr F. F. Hockley (Government) and Mr C. H. Clinkard (Nationalist) are having an interesting contest at Rotorua, in which a couple of other candidates appear as side issues; but the general opinion is that Mr Hockley will be returned.

There is an excellent chance of the Hawke's Bay seat returning to the Government, Mr H. M. Campbell being expected to defeat the retiring member, Mr G. McKay. Napier, which is not a Labour seat, probably will dispense with the services of Mr Mcllvride and elect Mr J. Mason (Government).

In the Waipawa and Wairarapa Sir George Hunter and the Hon. A. D. McLeod (both Government) are safe, and Mr J. Sykes ought to have a fair majority in Masterton, while at Pahiatua Mr A. McNicol, who was defeated by Mr Ransom three years ago, has an excellent chance of regaining the seat. Mr McNicol is a straight-out supporter of Mr Coates.

The position regarding the Taranaki seats is decidedly interesting. The fight in Stratford is exceptionally keen, and if Mr Masters is to hold the seat he will have to fight very hard. The same applies to New Plymouth, where Air S. G. Smith is in danger of defeat by Air C. E. Bellringer. Air O. J. Hawken should h*v<? Bttle difficulty in retaining the Egmont seat, and the indications are that the Government will get the Patca seat too: Patea was represented in the last Parliament by Air J. R. Carrigan (Nationalist). His opponent this time is Mr H. G. Dickie, and instead of

there being a split vote there is a straight-out contest. If Mr W. A. Veitch manages to win the Wanganui seat it will not be by many votes, for the supporters of the Government candidate, Mr John Coull, are very confident of registering a surprisingly large vote. Labour is likely to lose the Waimarino seat, the old-time Liberal, Mr R. W. Smith, who is standing as a National, having every prospect of winning the seat from Mr Langstone. The Oroua seat provides another very interesting contest. Mr D. H. Guthrie has retired and the Government is represented by Mr Gordon Elliott, while Mr R. Cobbe stands for the Nationalist and Mr J. 11. Taylor for Labour. All along it was recognised that the contest would be a close one, but, while Mr Elliott has made great headway in the last few weeks, Mr Cobbe has gone back, and his shares are lower to-day than they have been at any time during the campaign. The chances appear to be a shade in favour of Mr Elliott. Messrs Nash, Linklater and Field should be able to win the Palmerston, Manawatu and Otaki seats for the. Government, and there is practically no doubt that Mr W. 8. Glenn, will hold Rangitikei for the Government. Tn the Hutt Mr T. M. Wilford (Nationalist) is not opposed by a. Government candidate on acount of his indifferent health, which has necessitated his leaving Now Zealand for a while. His opponct is the Labour candidate, Mr W. Nash, but there is no indication that Mr Wilford will not win.

Wellington Central and* Wellington South will bo retained by the Labour representatives, Messrs Fraser and McKeon, and the chances are that Sir John Luke will again win Wellington North as a Government candidate. At Wellington East the position is different this year from what it was three years ago. The situation is not altogether easy to analyse, but the Government representative, Mr Forsyth, has a prospect of winning the seat back from Mr Monteith, who sat in the last Parliament as a Labour member. Labour is very hopeful of defeating Mr R. A. Wright in Wellington Suburbs, but will find the old campaigner a very hard sort to head off.

In the South Island Nelson is likely to retain Mr Atmore (Nationalist), Motueka, Mr Hudson Government), Buller Mr Holland (Labour), Wairau Mr Girling (Government), Ashburton the Hon. W. Nosworthy (Government), Timaru Mr F. J. RoUeston (Government), Waitaki Mr J. Bitchencr (Government), Dunedin West the Hon. W. Downie Stuart (Government), Dunedin Central the Hon. C. E. Statham (Independent), Dunedin South Mr T. K. Sidey (Nationalist), Chalmers Mr J. McC. Dickson (Government), Wakatipu Mr J. Horn (Nationalist), and Mataura the Hon. G. Anderson (Government). Mr D. Buddo (Nationalist) is in danger of losing Kaiapoi to Mr W. Brock (Government) and the Nationalist leader, Mr G. W. Forbes, is being kept so busy in his own electorate, Hurunui, that he cannot make a tour of the country in the interests of his party. His opponent is Mr J. G. Armstrong (Government). Mr H. Holland should be able to capture Christchurch North for the Government. This is the scat formerly held by Mr L. M. Isitt.

Labour will win Christchurch East and Christchurch South with the former members, Mr H. T. Armstrong and Mr E. J. Howard.

Riccarton is expected to fall to Mr H. S. 8. Kyle, who is bearing the Government standard. Riccarton for many years was represented by Mr G. Witty. Avon most likely will return Mr D. G. Sullivan (Labour), but in Lyttelton Mr J. McCombs (Labour) is 'having the fight of his life to beat Mr M. E. Lyons (Government), and it is exceedingly doubtful if Mr McCombs can retain the scat.

Mr E. P. Lee (Government), probably will regain the Oamaru seat, and in doign so defeat Mr Macpherson, who ousted him from it three years ago.

Temuka will be a close contest. Mr T. D. Burnett is representing the Government and Mr C. J. Talbot the Nationalists. Clutha is almost certain to have a new representative, Mr J. Edie being likely to succumb to the Government candidate, Mr F. Waite.

Mr A. Hamilton ought to bo able to win back Wallace, and in Invercargill Sir Joseph Ward and Colonel Hargest are fighting what is regarded as a fifty-fifty contest. Mr De la Perelle (Nationalist) will not have much to spare if be beats Mr J. R. Hamilton (Government), at Awarua.

Of the four Maori seats the Northern will be won by Mr Tau Henarc (Government), the Eastern by the Hon. A. T. Ngata (Nationalist), and the Western by Sir Maui Pomare (Government), while Mr H. W. Uru (Government), probably will come back the representative of the Southern.