GENERAL ELECTION CHANCES.

Star (Christchurch), Issue 16902, 29 November 1922, Page 3

GENERAL ELECTION CHANCES.

TIPS FOR DECEMBER 7.

LIBERALISM TO CONQUER IN CANTERBURY.

Flection tips are being broaden ted this week. The trouble is that they as to the probable results, arid time that do use a lot of “ ifs." lit-one electorate where there are lour candidates i standing, chances ought to he about ; level, according i<> same of the know- J ii g on s. Cchei - i >int to the figures, compare them wii.li lire 191.1 ( figures, and ■ " Tiier«* you are. j .Don’t \ou .-sec*. Tv’s a cert lor bo-and-So. If you cau subtract. add. then multiply it's quite caw. To estimate the feeling of the electorates. the* * ; Star” sent its special 1 rorre: pondent. on tour to study the situation on the Canterbury front, paying particular nttenion to the following points : (1) Is it likely that the Reformers will be thrown out of the Massey line this summer? (2) AY ill the new premier be Mr \YiJford ? (3) AVhat is going to set the great, mysterious silent vote? Our correspondent supplies the following report:— CHRISTCHURCH FAST. There are three candidates in the field for C hristchurch East and one ol" them has no chance. "Tim” Armstrong, the Labour man. is more likely to frighten J>r Thacker than Hiram Hunter. Hunter was beaten by about two thousand votes in 1919. Armstrong, secretary of the Trainwavmen’s Union, is better known in the district, and be will get more support, particularly as he has been one of the most useful of the Labour men on the present City Council. Unless something extraordinary happens, the Doctor should win by over a thousand votes. His election speeches ore up to his best form, and nowhere have the interjeetors got the suspicion of the upper hand. Of course, there are hundreds of people who would rather swear off j tea than vote for Dr Thacker, but their j number stays about the same. To the majority, the Doctor is wha.t he professes to be, “ a sport,” without fads or snobbery, and that conviction will have a big bearing on election day. THE NORTH EVENT. The position is more complicated in j Christchurch North. If ever there was j a three-cornered contest this is one and j there is not likely to be any c-.-rt-ainty j about the result until the numbm - «m* up. Mr Isitt had a majority of 2-'»t:d , in 1919. and in a straight-out fight In* ; would again win without trouble. A < present lie is favourite, with Mr Archer second in popular fancy. For a time. Mr Isitt appeared to be losing ground because of his i pledge t-o the IG* it miners, but it is now becoming more clear-, ly recognised that this action was con- | sis tent with Air Isitt’s past actions ; and professions. He has always fought ' tooth and nail against Red Fedism, and he is likely to do so until the end. Mr Archer will get at least two thousand votes, a block present from Labour. He would get more but for his poor platform style. Impartial critics think he ought to stay in the pulpit. Mr Andrews’ position is one rather hard to define a hardened Reformer without official Reform support.. Even if he had the “ tag.’’ however, Air Andrews could only run into third place. Recentexposure of Reform maladministration has not made his path easier and his own record as chairman of the reserves committee of the City Council does not stamp him as a man of business acumen and foresight. His speeches do not carry weight arid lie lias only one firm and solidly-balanced opinion that it : s a crying shame that E. H. Andrews was turned down by the Christchurch Reform Executive. TIIK R 1( C A RTON \V K 1 /i ER . Alter Christchurch North, it is a pleasure to put in a forecast for Kiccarton. It’s this -Air George AAittv first, and the rot nowhere. Ti ever a constituency lias been well and truly represented, it is Ricoarton, and the ; bulk of tho electors are clearer off the ! point than they Were in 1919. Bad times and good, Mr Witty has stuck I steadily to his guns, doing his best for , people of all political colour and never ; making a song about it. Air Kyle, ] from the Reform siJable, and Air Al’Culj lough, the Labour man, differ on one j very material po int. Mr Kyle thinks ! lie will be second. Air M CuHough is inclined to believe that will b<> his priv_ • ilege. At one stage. Air M-CuHough did stand a better chance. That was before ho spoke. His first speech fell flat. It was expected that a man who had had experience on the Arbitration Court Bench would say something oringinal about Ln hour’s cause. Mr M’ChiUov.f’h simn’v lollowed tli©. dull, tiresome lines of Labour propaganda for the salvation of the world. Mr Kyle is a good vet., but he is a poor hand at conducting a campaign. THE AVON WELTER. The unknown quantity in Avon s Air Sullivan's personal popularity TTo got a heavy swag of Reform votes in 1919, and also a heavy swag of from people who regarded him as an Pflrnwt. hord vur'-ino- VOUPO* man. pot ly anxious to improve the lot of everyone. worker and capitalist alike l’u one direction, be lias, 10-t rroinid. IU ha, cut very little ice al (*»t x Cnillie'l debates, Lie >"H h lie started elf viiiu.d

ly as leader oi the Labour group. Rossibly, Parliamentary duties had ; something to do with Liiat disappointment. In Parliament itself. Air Sul- . ; livun l.:m been outshone bv Air Hol--1 land. Air Al I.'oihlk and "Air Howard. 5 At this election. 5:o will lose lvis swag of Reform \Pi.es. he will lose many women’.- votes, and he will In.-,* the ■ onii-opidcmie voles cast, again, t Air i Rus.sc!l. He vi ii! find it verv hartl t ; | ke**p his seat. AU Russell's chances are growing brigliter cverv day. Hicampaign has g-.ne with ;i swing right from the start. :nwl Alr Wilford’s vi-ii biougl:: back lulte-warm l iberal' into active support. For grip of finance, and Statute law. not another eandi date in the whole oi Canterbury can come near Air Russell. His indictment of Reform government was published from one end of New Zeals ml to another, and it is not likely In he forgotten on polling dav. I' shows that Air Russell is as alive to present dav problems as ever lit* was. Airs Herbert will poll more votes than Colonel Loach. She is stage-manag-ing her campaign like a veteran, but it is one of those things that can ho overdone. Whatever tin* reason, there are hundreds of women in Avon who would prefer no representative in Parliament to a woman representative. FOR CHRISTCHURCH SOUTH. Circumstances are helping Air Howard. ll.is Liberal opponent, .Mr Ell, made a mistake in 1919 when ne forsook Christchurch South to win favour in Lyttelton., and that desertion is not standing him in good steat!. At the same time, there are thousands of people iu Christchurch who consider Air Ell is doing more for the province than .any average politician, and thorO people would prefer him to stick to his Port Hills work. The Reform candidate. Air H. C. Lane, made a late and surprising decision, almost quixotic, if one can believe Air Lane. It must have happened like this —Mr I Lane was sitting at his desk, conning j some deep educational problem, when suddenly there came to him the disturbing thought that Red Fedism was a menace and that Air Howard was not as innocent as lie should bo. Therefore, Air Lane entered the lists, j Following Air Massey’s noble lend, be i« out to keep the Empire safe for ; Imperialists. "It is a noble ideal, let I hecklers say what they may. There j is another candidate in Christchurch i South, a humanist. Air Thomson. His ' platform is broader than Air Lane’s He is out on behalf of tho world and jhe i< backing his convictions to the ! extent of £lO. THE LYTTELTON HANDICAP. Air Macartney’s supporters claim to j be optimistic in regard to the chance i of defeating Air APCombs, but their candidate U not fighting the campaign with the vigour lie displayed in 1919. i Perhaps his confidence in the Massey ' Government has been shaken. There wore four candidates three years ago, ' and Air Alacartncy ran into second place .AGO odd votes behind ATr AFCombs. This year lie hopes to ; secure a lot of Liberal, support. All ; things considered. I believe that Mr i APCombs will win. As n critic ol the Government and as a close student- ; of cost of living problems, be* has J strengthened his position. 'Till some I time ago he had a drawback that I tended against popularity—a vehement j bitterness that almost turned nis i speeches into scathing sermons on the j wrongs of Labour. Lately he lias rei Taxed. During, his first meeting ;>i the present campaign, lie actually ascended to humour, and more wonderful still he made liis audience laugh. From the common man’s point of view. ; that i-, all to the good. Protracted • seriousness i- boring. EL EES HER E. ■ As far as Hit* country electorates aro i being focussed on Ellesmere, win re Sir ; Heaton Rhodes’s seat F regarded as i shaky. His Defence administration has be(*n weak and iiis speeches arc I more, apologetic than anything else, i Air Free, the Libera! candidate, del : not stand last Year, but- in 191 I be 1 i polled 2(521 votes against- 2897 for Sir | Heaton Rhodes, and that in spite of ! the fact that lie came forward at a ’ j comparatively late hour. In 1919. Sir Heaton Rhodes’s majority against ATr • Barclay ua- 1000. odd. This year Mr ■ Free Ims better organisation behind i luni, and lie is receiving enthusiastic i support from all parts of the electorate. Provided there m no slackening i cl! lie may win the contest. It is a ; fact that Sir Heaton Rhodes’ tenure [ if the seat is in grave danger. ! THE K \ I API) 1 SEAT Another Reform stalwart is booked ' to clash on December 7. Air David Jones has been deeply concerned with i the Meat Pool scheme and his elector- • ate lias received scant attention. Mr • .It.nos would not Imre won in 1919. but I’c,• the fact that there was a threecornered contest. 'This year there is agai:; a three-cornered contest, but the IfUpon-i nt■Labour c*.,nrlidat«*. Mr R , 1 . Marvin, very much weaker than , Mr Al organ Williams, the Labour candidate of 1919. Rad information must , have tempted him out- for Ivaiapoi. "Mi Buddo was beaten by fifty votes in '9!9 Thi'; - sar lie should win by a« much as 000. HFRUNUT AND ASHBI'RTON. I .M i (b (rg ■ I- f’.rbi *■• has la id 111 Dip i.mii since 190-3, and lie will

! hold it for another three years. Hits opjioncnt-. Air S. Andrew, will not- do a well as Mr -I. G. Armstrong, the iUUrnvr who polk c! 2311 votes in | 1919 against Air Forbes’ 3008. Even m Kaiicorra, where he is chairman of *b- < omit;. Council. A»r Andrew is not widely popular. Hiss speeches are mainly stereotyped songs of praise tor In Ashburton. Air Nosworthy will have a close call. There i- strong <opposition to him all over tho district, but it lias still !_•.) be .welded togotlier. 'lt Noswortlvy’s mishandling of the uln-nt business: from the peoples’ point- : e! view is not likolv to be forgotten. ’Hx* LibcraU would ’do bmtoi with a yming■•r ami ''trongt r candidate. FARTHER SOUTH. Tim sitting member for Tonjiika. Mr I . i). Rurneir. Reform. i> at the end i of Ids U'tiicr. according to reliable in- ( I..nna tion. and Mr T. !!. Langford, a j ycung !>iberal. i- confident of success. ! Iu spite* of tiit* 19:9 liyuve- (Burnett 3291. Talbot 3293) Teuiuka was Lib- < ral stronghold. DOWN AT TIM ART Alossagcs from independent sources predict a close fight between Mr P. (.’. Vinnoll. Labour.'and Mr F. -I. Rollcst« n. Reform. Air RolU -ion i*. the ton o*’ the Hon Miili an i Rollout on. who vas tic tea led for Riccarton in 1899 bv ouc vote, the victor being tin* Hon G. | AY. Russell. Mr IB.Heston is a capable lawyer, but his opposition to the Lake Tekapo .scheme and to other proposals will lose 11im quite a lot of support. The issue is an open one. THE AY AITA K I CONTEST. Tim AVaitaki issue lies between Air *I. Ritchencr. Reform, and Air A\ . G. lb.ii!. Labour, and it is in doubt. The 1919 figures were:- J. Bitch oner (R.A 2-3-30. J. Ans lev (L.> *2078, AA" G. Paul (Lab.) 1(50-3. Suunning up. there ,-iiould be* seven * >• eight Liberal candidates returned, :lie remainder being divided between Labour and Reform. Feeling in the North Island, is running on similar liiTcs. and therefore, says the i% Star ” correspondent, the end of Alasseyism is in sight and the new premier will fie Air Torn AYilford.