How Goes the Fight?

Star (Christchurch), Issue 12066, 23 July 1917, Page 2

How Goes the Fight?

HOTES OH THE WAR.

THE POSITIOI ANALYSED,

CHRISTCHURCH, July 23

The average reader may bo excused for being a little bewildered by the conflicting reports regarding the submarines and the shipping position. At the end of May, in the course of a speech that is reported elsewhere in this issue, Mr Lloyd George declared that th 0 German hope of winning through the submarine campaign was foredoomed to failure, though he was careful to observe that economy and increased production at home wc*e essential. The point of interest just now is that during the month of May, according to the Prime Minister, the British had been "dealing more effective blows at the submarine than durins any previous period of the war," that the arrangements for meeting the danger were becoming increasingly effective and that the May losses were considerably below the Admiralty's anticipations. It is true that in June there was a quickening of the German activity, but even so the total British losses reported in June were- no heavier than those of May, and so far as it has gone July has been a much better month. If the Government was satisfied that losses at the May rjite could not reduce Britain to starvation, therefore, it is difficult to understand in what respect the prospects have changed for the. worse.

The dispatches from London to American newspapers, which have been mentioned in the cable messages during the last day or two, do not greatly elucidate the position. Up to February 1, when the unrestricted campaign was initiated, the Germans claimed to have sunk just over four million tons of Allied shipping. It is stated now that the total losses since the. beginning of the war have been about seven and a half million tons, so that sinco the opening of the submarine blockade the losses should have been about three and a half million tons. If that represented the losses of nv<-> months the monthly losses would average about 700,000 tons. This is just over the average stated by Rear-Admiral Laeaze in the French Chamber of Deputies at the end of May. The French Minister of Marine, in the course of a speech from which a few points were cabled, gave tho losses for four months as 2.-500.000 tons, and he added that, if the rate of destruction were maintained the net loss at the end of the year—deducting the now construction—would be about 4,500,000 tons.

Before they entered on the campaign of unrestricted submarine warfare the Germans seem to have worked out the probabilities and possibilities and to have arrived at the conclusion that thev could reduce Britain to terms within the year. They assessed tho total British tonnage at 20,000,000. Of this, they said, some 8,600,000 tons were requisitioned for military purposes 2,000,000 toiTi were employed by the Allies, 500,000 tons were employed in the coastal trade, and 1,000,000 tons were under repair. There were thus at most 8,000,000 tons available for Britain's oversea -trade. The Germans allowed another thre© or four million tons for Allied and neutral shipping that might assist the British tonnage. They argued that the neutral ships could be frightened away and that if half the British and Allied tonnage C-ould be sunk Britain would be compelled to make terms. One of the '' facts" supplied to the German Press was that if 100.000 tons of shipping trading to Australia were sunk it would mean the loss of twelve days' supply of wheat for the Mother Country- There was obviously sufficient basis of truth in the argument to make the campaign an exceedingly dangerous one from Britain's point of view.

Tt wis met, of course, by utilising ships almost exclusively in the importation of foodstuffs and war .supplies, by the exercise of rigid economy and. by the concentration of ail available .shipping on the task of feeding the people of the British Isles. But it is quite clear that the losses have been serious and that the position is likely to be worse at the end of the year. If the "blockade" continues the pinch will begin to be felt in the winter and it will be severe in the spring, when home grown supplies are ncaring exhaustion. That, is why new construction is of such pressing importance and fc-hy the British authorities are so anxious that the Americans should waste no time. As a matter of fact

the latest reports from the United States suggest that the disputes between Major-General Goelhals and the chairman of tho Shipping Board were on the high road to settlement, and that the questions still at issue were not likely to aifect the rate of construction of new ships. It is possiblo that an exaggerated importance is being attached to the dispatches of the American correspondents in London—a mistake that is quite excusable in view of the meagre amount of information given to the British public concerning the submarine campaign.

Tho Austro-German drive on tho Zlockov sector in Galicia looks serious. Russian official reports declare that the initial success achieved by the enemy was due to tho disaffection of certain regiments, which offered no resistance, and it is added that the penetration of one portion of the front compelled the forces on the flanks to retire. But unfortunately there is little exact information to tho extent of front affected. The attack was delivered immediately north of Pluhov, and it seems to have affected tho front as far south as Brzezany and northwards towards Brody. The German reference to operations between the Strypa and the Sereth may mislead the casual reader, because the Sereth runs down to the Dniester in a channel that is ton or fifteen miles east of the Strypa. But the Sereth rises net far from the Brody-Zloczov road, south-west of Brody, and its course is generally south-east. The Strypa rises to the north of the Zloczov-Tarnopol road, and a thrust from Zloczov eastwards would carry the Germans past tho source of the Strypa and towards the upper Sereth. 4. serious breach in the Russian linc»

on this sector must prejudice the position on the Brody sector and also on the Brzezany-Dni ester front and will undo all the good "work that Brusilov has achieved this year, by compelling him to relax his pressure on the Narajovka front and to deprive Kornilov's army of the co-operation and support of the army immediately north of the Dniester. The reports already to hand show that the enemy broke through astride the Zloczov-Tar-nopol road on a narrow front, hut rapidly opened a bgger gap. Their actual advance is.now being made on a front of twenty-five or thirty miles, but its influence is being felt on fifty miles of the front. The Russians have fallen right back for nearly twenty miles at one point and are now along the upper Strypa, northwards of Tarnopol, which is clearly in danger.