A FORECAST FOR OTAGO.

Star (Christchurch), Issue 5655, 28 August 1896, Page 5 (Supplement)

A FORECAST FOR OTAGO.

"Merchant," writing from Port Chalmers to the New Zealand Times, sends the following notes on election probabilities in the south: —

The report that Sir Robert Stout would contest the Waihemo seat was received in the electorate with derision. His countrymen from Shetland alone would support him. I deal gently with Sir Robert, for he has many qualities that endear him to his friends, who half believe that he is, Malaylike, running " amuck " in a frenzy of disappointment, and that he will yet come back to the fold.

The Minister of Lands is universally trusted and liked in the south. The fact that he is the only Minister who has really opened the land for the people is well recognised. He is indeed "of the people, for the people," and is a tower of strength to the Ministry. Many a man next election will owe his seat to the fact that he is a supporter of the Minister of Lands.

The Prohibitionists are active, but they are not a united family. Some of their leaders (Mr A. S. Adams, for instance) are not popular even with their own party. Some of them are friendly to the Ministry, others are not. It is by no means certain that the Prohibitionists will cast a concrete vote. The labour vote will be nearly as solid as it was at the last election. Workers recognise, I think, that they would be cutting their own throats if they dismissed the only Ministry that ever recognised their worth. They are very mistrustful of Sir E. Stout. The prospect of being ruled by men like Messrs Duthie, Hutchison and Newman is sufficiently appalling to concrete anything. The conduct of members is being closely criticised. The sudden find of conscience among some of them is seen through, and set down as an attempt to straddle both parties. The stiff-backed members will come through best. -

In Port Chalmers no man will be found bold enough to oppose Mr Millar. In Caversham Mr Morrison will, I think, be again returned. Some insulting reference to his grammar, made in the local morning journal has helped him, because it is recognised that a labour member is not usually academic, and the sneer has stung his active supporters into activity. He will be opposed by Mr Barron and a few political fledglings. In the city Mr Pinkerton will be returned ; Mr Hutchison is improving his position by his steadfastness; Mr Earnshaw will not, I think, see Parliament again. He trusts to the votes of those who are in the habit of saying, "It is a good thing to have a man who hits out." Mr Earnshaw, however, is too personal. He betrays the fact that he has some grievance against the Ministry. He has had at some time or other to tighten his belt for laok of something that his party could have given him. Such, at least, is the belief here. He will not get back, and it is a pity he ever came under Sir Robert's wing. Another possible impossible, Bruce, is crying for a Liberal candidate, and will not be content till she gets one. Mr Allen 13 too negative to please his constituency. He is not poor, not a good speaker, not a Liberal, and not popular. If he meets a good man, he falls.

This year is going to see a return of the only " People's Ministry " the country ever saw. Prices are rising, everything is looking well, and voters are in a good temper. The country wants no change to check the good times. Some weak-kneed Ministerialists will fall between the stools, the bulk will go back ; whilst the already thin ranks of the Opposition will get thinned anew.