JAPAN’S CAPACITY

Taranaki Daily News, 10 July 1929, Page 15

JAPAN’S CAPACITY

AMPLE FOR BIG POPULATION IMMIGRATION NOT JUSTIFIED. IMPROVING ECONOMIC POSITION. The belief that Japan's rapidly increasing population constituted one of the major problems of that nation was attacked in a statistical study by Duncan K. Overall, economist, contributed to the annual review of the Japan Advertiser, copies of which reached this country recently. Mr. Overall’s tables disclosed that there was no surplus of population in Japan, and that the nation’s fast-ex-panding industries and its robust agriculture had demonstrated clearly Ihe country’s ability to care for its many millions without recourse to emigration. “This -brief statistical analysis,” Mr. Overall wrote, after giving his tabulated figures, “ought to demonstrate that a rapid increase of numbers is quite consistent with a much more rapid increase in economic welfare, even in a land already densely populated. “It is not claimed that the economic position of the Japanese people leaves nothing to be desired, but it certainly does prove that there is no economic justification for the efforts beiim made to send people out of the country and none at all for alarm. The position clearly is improving and improving rapidly.

MAY EQUAL GERMAN EXPERIENCE.

“The signs very strongly indicate that Japan will have the same experience as Germany, between the years 1875 and 1914, when the phenomenal increase in population gave rise to similar alarms, but was actually inadequate to satisfy the demands of German industry. “It is earnestly to be hoped that before initiating a policy based upon the assumption that Japan is over-popu-lated or likely to be over-populated, the Japanese Government will at least take the trouble to investigate whether such an assumption is at all justified by the facts.”

In considering the problem Mr. Overell took 100 as an index to represent population. and food in 1883. In 1926 population had grown to 172, with the chief foodstuffs registering as follows: Rice. 194; wheat, 245; sweet potatoes, 382; and beans, 156.

“It would appear, therefore,” he concluded. "highly probable that even densely peopled Japan has not yet reached the point of diminishing returns in agriculture, and that even if there is a population problem—which is exceedingly doubtful—the problem is becoming not more acute, but less acute, in spite of the increase in numbers.”

I.” another table the economist showed comparative rates of expansion of population and production of minerals in Japan. The period studied was from 1921 to 1926, In 1926 population was rated at 107, and the minerals as follows: Lead, 80: zinc, 108; coal, 108; copper, 98; tin, 191; sulphur, 226.

TEXTILE OUTPUT INCREASES.

Textiles were surveyed in another table, showing a comparison between the rate of expansion of population and the value of output of certain textiles.' The period surveyed was from 1917, with population and output fixed at 100. In 1926 population registered 112, and the following textiles as shown: Silk, 258; cotton, 251; and woollens, 3.51. A similar table was devoted specifically to raw silk, because of its economic importance to Japan. Assuming that the figures for 1917 were 100 in each case, the Ifiil figures were reported by Mr. Overell as follows: Quantity, 194; value, 306; population, 112. The same tabular method was employed hi transportation and in the growth of production of gas and electricity in Japan. In transportation the rise from 100 in 1917 is shown as follows: Tonnage moved on railroads, 168; population, 112; tonnage moved on ships, 207. In electricity and gas the figures were: Electricity, 344; gas, 220; population, 112.

In commenting on the increased output of electricity, Mr. Overall said: “The very steeply rising curve showing the increasing production of electricity in Japan during the last decade is not only of interest in itself, but important as indicating the degree of wealth production which has called it and which it has called into being. In comparison, the increase in population is distinctly small.”

The rate of increase of bank accounts in comparison with the rate of population increase was shown by Mr. Overell. In 1912 he rated his subjects at 100, and in 1925 his table reported as follows: Number of depositors, 236; amount of deposits, 586; population, 117. “The economic welfare of a people,” wrote Mr. Overell, “and with it the question of over or under population, depends very clearly upon the economic position of the bulk of the population; that is to say, the wage earners, including in Japan the ma jority of the farmers. If the savings of these people arc increasing, clearly their economic position must be improving. “These poorer people use the Post Office Savings Bank. These figures arc most interesting as showing that business boom and business slump have had apparently no effect upon the rate of improvement of the economic position of the wage-earning classes taken in the mass.”