MR HILL'S FIGURES CHALLENGED.

Colonist, Volume LVII, Issue 14144, 22 July 1916, Page 3

MR HILL'S FIGURES CHALLENGED.

(To the Editor of "The Colonist.',') Sir,—ln Terence to Mr H. G. Hill's estimate of past and future production of fruit, published in your issue of July 10th, I would like to point out that his deductions are quite erroneous, and th&t it is in the public" interest that such •statements should not be allowed to pass unchallenged. Mr Hill sets out; by basing his calculations on the 1903 orchard acreage, averaging sis-year-old trees, producing one case to tho tree. Every practical fruitgrower knows that a huge area of 28,058 acres of such trees would not average anything of the kind. Then following the same course of reasoning he arrives at the conclusion that last year the Dominion production of fruit totalled 10,209 485 cases, and that in 1921 we should reach 18,003.448. Ho also points out that Nelson possesses approximately onefourth of th* acreage in New Zealand. Well, row, Nelson is not loss productive than other parts of Now Zealand, and tho inference is, according to Mr Hill's reasoning xlia.t this province must have produced last year over 2,500,000 cases. Would that gentleman be surprised to know taat the- Nelson Province last year did not produce two and a-half millions nor two millions, nor one million cases ? The quantity was' actually little more than 400,000 cases! For confirmation of this statement make a reasonable allowance for local consumption and take the quantities handled on the Motueka and Nelson wharves. Whatever, the total production of tall.kinds of fruit-may have been last year, it is ■safe to say that apples and pears were well under one million cases for the whole Dominion. Seeing that there has been comparatively little extension in the direction of stone ■fruit»a;rowin«*. Mr Hill's 10,209,485, away iip in tl~e clouds, comes down with a bump to a very tiny altitude. If Mr Hill's figures •are so unreliable as to actual production in the past, what value can be "attached to his estimate of future production? iAs a fruitgrower, I hiaive no fear of the future. Whea it became known that I our export trade would be cut out for 11915 blank ruin was prophesied. What ;happened? For a tfew weeks prices were low (though good stuff realised ! fair prices), but the market quickly recovered, and now- it is impossible to supply the demand. Orders for thou- | sands of cases at good prices from Aucki land and other places have been turned ■ down. We simply haven't got the fruit. ,All,this goes to show that there is no over-production. It goes to show rather that we need a sane system of marketing. What of next year if the export trade is again cut out? I venture the opinion that there-will be no .'difficulty in placing our fruit within the Dominion, and at good prices, for'these reasons: , 1. Increased cool storage accomj modation will help to regulate the market in the early or fat part of the season by Carrying over supplies to the later or lean .months. i 2. The two trading companies which jhftve been registered may deal with interior fruit through the evaporator or otherwise, and thus relieve the market I at a critical time; but in any ease will } certainly even up things by eytending the present scheme of distribution, and increase ■consumption-"by. offering a properly graded and packed article.' 3. The N.Z. Federation, it is expected., will have nearly £2000 at disposal to- organise an advertising propaganda, with the object of enlightening the public on the advantages of the medicinal and food 'value of fruit. Such a campaign of publicity would assuredly ; result in increased consumption. ; We are constantly beint; told, certainly by those not over familiar with the subject, that we shall soon have millions of cases for export, and plaintively asked, "What will you do with them all? 1' Well, sir, my answer is: Under new methods there will be a consider- ! able increase in local consumption. An increased demand has already set" in. Besides our population is'increasing, {and will increase after, the war in a i much greater ratio. Our production of P}P fruits is less than half that of tho United States, calculated on a popula-' ■ tion basis: Here we have not yet acquired the fruit habit as they have in

iho States. But we shall, /and perhlaips in agri-eater degree. It will be many years lienee before there are a million

cases available for export. Was it not predicted in 1911 that there would he a surplus of a million ctees this year? Anjhow, when that million does materialise it will he a morsel that will have no ill-effects on the digestive organs'of the world's markets. I am, etc., ARTHUR McKEB.