The Southland Times WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 1942. Japan's Next Move

Southland Times, Issue 24862, 30 September 1942, Page 4

The Southland Times WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 1942. Japan's Next Move

THE Japanese Prime Minister has announced that Japan has completed all her preparations “for the next stage of the war.” “He did not,” naively declared the cable message which reported this announcement, “elaborate what the next stage would be.” There is, however, no lack of speculation on this point. During the last few days newspaper correspondents and military experts in all parts of the world have been airing their theories. The latest forecast, from a correspondent of The New York Daily Mirror who has just returned to the United States from Australia, is that Japan’s next objectives will be Port Moresby, New Caledonia and New Zealand, in that order. “Although General MacArthur forestalled a Japanese invasion of Australia,” says the correspondent, “the enemy believes he can accomplish the same purpose by sitting astride the United StatesAustralia supply line.” This prophecy may prove to be true: New Zealand certainly cannot ignore the possibility that it may be true. But recent experience in the Pacific has shown that the successive conquests of Port Moresby, New Caledonia and New Zealand would be a matter of extreme difficulty for the Japanese. The dominating military factor in the Pacific war so far has been air power. Air power gave the Japanese their first surprise victories and paved the way for the reduction of Bataan. Air power destroyed the British and Dutch naval forces; and, in turn, air power gave the United States her victories in the Coral Sea and off Midway Island. Since then the Japanese have hesitated, as the United Nations have hesitated, to use their warships within range of land-based aircraft. A cable message printed this morning stresses the advantages that the Americans have won by establishing air bases in the Solomons. Before the Japanese can sweep south all these advantages have to be nullified. The air superiority of the Allies over New Guinea has to be overthrown and the bases in the Solomons regained; and only then will the enemy be in a position to try conclusions with the air forces that are based in New Caledonia and New Zealand, not to mention the combined naval and air forces that he would meet on the way. It would be a tall order, even for the Japanese. And according to the latest news from Port Moresby they have been forestalled in the initial phase of the programme by a strong United Nations offensive in the area of the Owen Stanley range. Japan has not wholly lost the initiative in the South Pacific, but she is on the point of losing it; and if the new offensive can be sustained, and supported by increasingly widespread and powerful air attacks from the Solomons, the Japanese, instead of advancing, may soon have to retire from some of their recently-won island bases. The Russian Threat

Other correspondents have prophesied an early attack on India; others again believe that Japan will attempt to extend her hold on the Aleutians. And there is still a strong body of opinion which predicts that Japan’s next move must logically be made against Russia. Support for this latter prediction is perhaps to be found in a statement by the Japanese Foreign Minister which accompanied the Prime Minister’s assurances that preparations for “the next stage” are complete. The Foreign Minister said that Japan’s policy towards Russia was unchanged. “Our relations with Russia in Far Eastern territory are unchanged and tranquil,” he added. No one who reads these words will fail to recall the “peace negotiations” which the Japanese were carrying on at the time of the attack on Pearl Harbour. The same kind of treachery may be used again. For there certainly are strong reasons why Japan must sooner or later remove the potential threat that overhangs her home territories. Russia is not likely to attack Japan in the present phase of the war: all her strength is needed on the Eastern Front. But when the day of Hitler’s defeat comes—and all the evidence suggests that the United Nations are making this their primary objective—Japan’s position will be terribly precarious if Russia remains in possession of her present Far Eastern territories. For the enmity between Russia and Japan is so bitter and of such long standing that it is impossible to believe that the Soviet would not in these circumstances grant bases to her Allies. The recent American operations in the Solomons have shown that it will be no easy task to regain the many strong-points in the Pacific that the enemy has seized. If the ultimate offensive against Japan has to be launched from the south, from the east or even from the west, it is certain to be long and costly. But the use of Russian Far Eastern bases, with the air power that would be available once Hitler was destroyed, might enable the United Nations to smash Japan with a single, crushing blow. The Japanese are well aware of this threat. It will be surprising if they do not take steps to remove it while their hold on their Pacific territories is still reasonably secure.