The Southland Times. FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24, 1941 America's 'Victory' Programme

Southland Times, Issue 24574, 24 October 1941, Page 4

The Southland Times. FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24, 1941 America's 'Victory' Programme

IT WAS REPORTED in a cable message from New York this week that the American defence leaders are preparing plans for a vast upward revision of the armaments programme. The report was attributed to the Washington correspondent of The New York Times and may be accepted as reasonably correct not only because of the reliability of its source but because the programme it outlines is in keeping with America’s now evident determination to fight the battle of the democracies to a finish. The United States Government has had to decide whether it will make America the “arsenal of democracy” and nothing more,. or whether it will embark on an “alt-out” effort to defeat Germany, not in the Atlantic alone, but if necessary on the continent of Europe. The occupation of Iceland, the Atlantic meeting between President Roosevelt and Mr Churchill and their military advisers, the adoption of conscription, and the progressive steps taken to ensure the safe delivery of a greater and greater volume of supplies to the fighting fronts—all these things mean that the United States Government has made its decision and has resolved to use its huge resources actively and directly to bring about Hitler’s defeat. The decision envisages the landing of a second American Expeditionary Force in Europe or Africa, it envisages American participation in the naval war, and it envisages the production of a sufficient volume of armaments to give the democracies superiority in “machine power,” especially aircraft and tanks, over their enemies. The project is. a vast one, and it calls for a prolonged effort on a tremendous scale. The purpose of the “Victory” programme, according to the Washington report, is to prepare the democracies “for the final show-down in 1944.” There is no one who will not hope and pray that the war will end before 1944; and if Russia’s resistance is maintained and Hitler is deprived of further resources of oil, it may, and probably will, end sooner. But the fixing of 1944 as “zero hour” for the democracies is based on a knowledge of the industrial resources which are now open to Hitler in Europe and of the leeway which Britain and America have to make up before they can go, on to achieve that decisive arms superiority which alone will give them victory.

Heavy Handicap

The extent of the handicap which has been, imposed on the democracies through the comparatively late beginning of their rearmament is not always realized. The Nazis began their rearmament programme in 1933, and it took them, with singleness of purpose and authoritarian powers, five years to achieve quantity production. British rearmament did not begin in earnest until 1938 and was not put on a “total” basis until 1940. The American rearmament programme was not launched until 1940 and did not get under way until 1941. The size of the task which confronts American industry is well set out by the military expert, Max Werner, in his new book, “Battle for the World.” Actually [he writes] the new American defence programme corresponds approximately to the German armament level of 1941—that is to say, the German defence performance of the seven years from 1934 to 1940. Yet the American programme is only scheduled to come into effect in the years 1942-43, which means that it is not yet so planned as to parry the German armament programme for the next two years (say, from July 1, 1941, to July 1, 1943). But American defence will also have to take into account German armaments in 1942-43. This means, in effect, that America must accomplish in two years what Germany accomplished in nine. Admittedly, this is only part of the picture. The industrial war is not by any means being waged between Germany and German-occupied Europe and America alone. Arms output in Britain is reaching record levels, and the industries of Canada, Australia and India are contributing their full share. But it should be remembered that what is required is not merely arms equality with Germany (or, more accurately, with Germany, Italy and Japan combined), but such a superiority that the democracies will be able to win a decisive military victory. Even with the help of American resources, that superiority cannot be obtained in a year or two. Aircraft and Tanks

The rearmament programme laid down by President Roosevelt in 1940, for completion in 1942-43, provided for the production of 50,000 military aircraft, 9200 tanks, 17,000 heavy guns, 25,000 light guns, 13,000 trench mortars, 300,000 machineguns, 400,000 automatic rifles and 380 warships. Mr Werner has pointed out that these arms would be sufficient to equip a very strong fighting force of 15,000 to 18,000 first-line aircraft (with reserves and training units), 15 armoured divisions (with reserves), and about 200 infantry divisions. It is a measure of the task that confronts the democracies that this force is now considered inadequate. According to The New York Times correspondent, the new “Victory” programme provides for 125,000 aeroplanes (an increase of 150 per cent, on the present figure) and “tens of thousands” of tanks. “The goal,” he says, “is to provide the anti-Axis forces with twice as much military material as they have been expecting in 1942 and 1943”; and this is expected to necessitate the diversion of “at least half” the nation’s productive capacity to arms output. But it seems doubtful whether anything less than the full industrial capacity of the United States would be sufficient for such a prodigious task. Indeed, the question must now arise whether the output aimed at could be achieved without a declaration of war and the complete mobilization of America’s resources.