The Southland Times THURSDAY, JULY 18, 1940. Clash of Interests in the East

Southland Times, Issue 24181, 18 July 1940, Page 6

The Southland Times THURSDAY, JULY 18, 1940. Clash of Interests in the East

THE SITUATION in the Far East, always obscure beneath a tangle of conflicting interests, has not been improved by the formation of a new Japanese Government. As far as can be judged at this distance, the change is related almost entirely to questions of foreign policy. According to a London message, the new Cabinet “is expected to have a pro-Axis tinge and a stronger southward policy,” a development which will not cause much surprise outside Japan. But the example of the Nazi war chiefs cannot be emulated in the Far East until some large difficulties have been overcome. Expansion by sea is very different from the thrust of mechanized columns across the land frontiers. And when the Japanese leaders ponder the dream of a Pacific empire they think first of the probable attitude of the United States. One English radio commentator went so far as to suggest that the latest political change was timed to influence the American Democratic Party Convention against, the nomination of Mi’ Roosevelt for a third term as President. In these days, with rich colonial territories passing outside the control of European States, the important fact to be discovered is how far it would be possible to advance into the South Seas without provoking the active intervention of America. And Mr Roosevelt is no friend of Japanese imperialists.

War and Trade

Japanese naval power is so dominant in the Far East that it is easy to wonder why so much should depend on the reactions of American statesmen. The United States fleet is more,powerful than the Japanese. But unless a sudden alliance with Britain gave it the use of the Singapore base, its striking power would be considerably affected by the wide distances of the Pacific. (The American base at Pearl Harbour, for instance, is some 7000 miles from Batavia, in the Dutch East Indies.) Although the Japanese Navy must also operate within easy reach of its home ports, it has most of the strategic advantages. But naval power is only part of the story. Japan wants to remain on friendly terms with the United States for two important reasons:

(1) The war in China is not yet over; and (2) American shipments constitute more than 54 per cent, of Japan’s imported war materials. The American trade treaty has been denounced, and although the threatened embargo has not yet been imposed, it remains a nightmare for Japanese Governments. There is a possibility that a seizure of the Dutch East Indies would make" Japan independent of American and British oil supplies. The Indies are fifth on the list of the world’s oil producers: their 1939 output was 61,580,000 barrels. At one blow, then, the Japanese might be able to free themselves from their most serious economic weakness, and would thereafter be in a position to pass on to new gains. It is generally believed, however, that the oil wells have been mined, and would be destroyed as soon as the islands were attacked. This would at least keep the wells out of production during a dangerous period for Japan.

China’s Struggle

The Chinese question is equally delicate. There have been repeated hints of a forthcoming settlement, and it is generally believed that Japan would like to wind up the venture and turn her attention to war-time opportunities in the Pacific. British people, whose sympathies have been almost entirely with the Chinese, can feel nothing but regret and uneasiness now that the Government appears to be making concessions over the Burma Road. They do not feel, with Mr Cordell Hull, that the issue at stake is the importance of “keeping open the arteries of commerce throughout the world.” On the contrary, they have supported the Chinese because they are engaged in tfie same struggle as themselves —a resistance to aggression. -They see also that, if Japan is assisted in her blockade measures, she may eventually be free to attack British interests and territories. Unfortunately these are no longer questions of principles, but of self-preservation. Although Britain is strong enough to hold the seas in the Atlantic and in the Mediterranean, she can scarcely be expected to fight simultaneously in the Far East.. If the United States Government believes that appeasement is the wrong policy, the remedy is in its own hands. No other Great Power has the naval and economic strength and at the same time the freedom from European entanglements which could allow America to play a decisive part in the Pacific. The time may come when diplomatic hints and naval gestures in Hawaiian waters will no longer restrain Japan from seeking her destiny.