HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL’

Southland Times, Issue 20013, 29 October 1926, Page 4

HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL’

PROSPECTS FOR WOOL SEASON. “THERE ARE NO PROPHETS IN THE WORLD.” ‘There is not a prophet in the world of wool whom I would honour. The more I have to do with the trade the more am I convinced that there are no prophets.” This is the considered statement of Mr H. T. Milnes, the well-known wool buyer of Christchurch, who has operated in the Dominion for the past 37 years, and who returned to Wellington recently from a visit to the Old Country. Mr. Milnes, when questioned upon the indications of the market in England so f r as New Zealand was concerned, replied that none could prognosticate with accuracy how the season would turn out. “The best men in the whole trade,” he said, “and men to whom every wool grower looked for a lead, prophesied two years ago. Everyone followed them—we had to to some extent—and with what results? Almost every bale of wool which was bought was subsequently sold at a huge loss. In some cases the loss amounted to fifty per cent. CAUSE AND EFFECT. “Anyone who has bought wool during the past two years has lost money; and those who buy wool cannot operate at a big loss for two seasons and still hold the wool for bigger prices. They have had to sell for what they could get in order to get money. “I might form an impression to-day—in fact I did when I was in England—and tomorrow this might be completely upset by a combination of the circumstances which contribute to the fluctuating market. Very few of us can argue from the cause to the effect; the causes are so many. “What is going to happen I cannot say; but at the present time I see no reason for any material and immediate alteration in the prices. Any fluctuation that does occur will probably be the result of speculation—not speculation of the man who buys a few bales here and there, but of those who buy in huge quantities for overseas interests. It was speculation that ruined us two years ago. CONTINENT WANTS WOOK “It is true that when I left Home there was an appreciation in the price of halfbred wool and a decline in crossbred; but this state might have lasted for but a day. I had left the shores of the Old Country only a few days when my own impressions of the market were quite upset. Continental buyers want the wool—France wants it and Germany wants it—but who is going to supply to these countries when the finance is in such a precarious state? They would take the wool on the Continent if they could get it on six months’ bills; but Bradford is not sure that the money will be forthcoming at the end of that time. “A good deal of business was at one stage being done with Russia, but there is no money available at the present time for the arrangement of sales there. “Some of the fluctuation on the market is caused through the spasmodic operation of the Continental buyers, who can purchase only when the ready cash is available. Then they have to again close down till more money is forthcoming. As a result of the coal and other strikes in the Homeland there is a great deal of manufactured goods in the shops as well as a large quantity of raw material on hand, because the purchasing power of the people has been restricted through the lack of money.” MOTIVE FOR COMMENT. Mr Milnes continued that many of those connected with the wool trade endeavoured to prophesy the trend of the market over a certain period, but their only achievement was to incur the amusement of their fellows. Usually there was a reason when any comment was made, and when he saw a prognostication of the season’s prospects, he looked for a motive at the back of the statements. He personally did not assume to have a knowledge of what was going to happen, and whatever might be his opinion to-day, this would probably be entirely changed on the following day. The question was then asked: “What is the reason for the general belief that New Zealand is going to have a good season in wool?” Mr Milnes replied simply: “Hope springs eternal in ths human breast. 4 ’