DESPERATE GAMBLING

Southland Times, Issue 17938, 18 May 1917, Page 6

DESPERATE GAMBLING

ONE LAST PLUNGE. STAKING A MILLION TONS. In America when you express sympathy with someone in financial trouble they have a happy way of asking you, “How much are you sorry?" It is a good, practical test that can be used to measure other emotions besides sympathy, and can be very well applied to Germany’s feeling of despair. Despair has driven Germany to thrown down the glove to the United States and other neutrals, and the measure of the risk-s she runs 'and the sacrifices she may thereby bo called upon to make is the measure of her present despair. How much are the Germans desperate? They are desperate, writes D. E. W. Gibb in the Daily Chronicle, to the extent of losing any moral support they ever had among neutrals. That may not count for much. They are desperate to the extent of throwing the American Navy and American finance on to the side of the Allies. That certainly counts for a good deal. They are desperate to the extent of endangering all their merchant vessels lying in American and South American harbours. That counts for everything; it is the gambler's last throw. What the loss of their steamers in neutral harbours would mean to the Germans only those who know Germany’s pride in her mercantile marine, and the hopes that she bases on it for the future, can realise; but certain figures which have been published this week show very clearly the volume of the sacrifice she is prepared to make. GERMANY’S DESPERATION. To answer the question, “How much is she desperate ’’ turn to Lloyd’s List of the first three days of this week, which has contained a long list of German and Austrian vessels lying in the harbours of the United States, Mexico, and South America. The list is presumably complete, and it Is certainly accurate enough to give a good idea of the amount of shipping endangered by a breach between Germany and a league of neutrals headed by President Wilson. The steamer tonnage, excluding Austrians, summarised, is roughly as follows:—•

German Steamers. Gross tons. In U.S. ports 623,000 In Brazilian ports .. .. 235,000 In other neutral ports of North and South America 405,000

Total 1,263,000 This total Includes many of Germany’s crack liners —the Vaterland, which is the pride of her mercantile marine, and the Kronprinzessin Cecllie, which found herself at the outbreak of war in the Atlantic with gold worth millions of sterling in her to bo picked up by the first British cruiser that crossed her path. It include® besides these luxurious passenger steamers cargo steamers of great value and efficiency, and if we take the average value of the whole at not more than £ls per ton we get the very respectable total of £19,000,000 as the selling value of the property Germany is prepared to lose as the price of the hostility of American neutrals. But the cash value of steamers is a very poor gauge of their value as a national asset —that is a lesson that we have all learnt in tills war—and Germans would be ttio last to under-esti-mate the national value of their property in steamers. They know, in fact they openly state, that their recovery and development after the war will depend on their mercantile marine, and they aro counting on it to replenish their stocks of raw material, and push their export trade at the expense of the Entente Powers. These after-the-war hopes of Germany will be crippled in the proportion in which she loses her mercantile marine now, and to find out what that proportion would be we need only compare *the total tonnage under the German flag with the German tonnage in American ports. Here is the figure of total German tonnage shown in Lloyd’s Register:— Gross Tons. Steamers. 1916 > 3,890,900 WHAT SHE STANDS TO LOSE. That is the sum of Germany’s mercantile marine. Now compare It with what she stands to lose if her steamers in American ports are captured or destroyed:— Gross Tons. Total GermSn marine .1,890,000 In American ports .. 1,263,000 Remaining 2,627,000 These figures mean that neutrals in North and South America have in their hands almost exactly 33 per cent, of all Germany’s tonnage in steamers, and if Germany forces war upon the United States and other American Republics this 33 per cent, is lost to her. The recovery after the war, in so far as it depends on shipping, will be crippled by one-third, the supply of food and raw materials for the hungry people and tlio hungry factories will be checked—and yet Germany Is prepared to take the risk. How much is she desperate •' Nor is the material loss the greatest that she would have to suffer. The pride that she takes in her growth as a seafaring power would suffer not less severely. In the 16 years of this century the steam tonnage of her mercantile marine was nearly doubled, the figures shown in Lloyd’s Register being as follows: Gross Tons. 1906 2,160,000 1916 3,890,000 Growth 1,730,000 In sixteen years she added 1,730,000 tons to her mercantile steamers. She is endangering now 1,263,000 tons—over two-thirds of that increase. If the Republics of America arc forced Into war with Germany the progress of twelve years in German shipping is straightway wiped out. What does Herr Ballin think of that?

Once again, “How much is Germany desperate?" She is as desperate as the gambler when he throws down on the table his last and most precious possession to keep the dice moving for a few more seconds and give Fortune one fins! opportunity to look his way.