The Southland Times PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. Luceo Non Uro. MONDAY, DECEMBER 30, 1912. THE PEACE CONFERENCE.

Southland Times, Issue 17231, 30 December 1912, Page 4

The Southland Times PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. Luceo Non Uro. MONDAY, DECEMBER 30, 1912. THE PEACE CONFERENCE.

While the Peace Conference has not concluded its labours, and while it is obvious that considerable difficulties have been encountered, it is quite clear, we think, that all danger of an European conflagration arising out of the Balkan w r ar has passed. The proable difficulty of negotiating a settlement between Servia and Austria with respect to Albania and an Adriatic port was the chief cause of anxiety, but it is understood that wdth the exercise of reasonableness on both sides the obstacle has been overcome. Albania’s autonomy is recognised, and Austria on her part yields Servia’s claim to a commercial port on the Adriatic, approached by a neutral railway. There was good reason to be-

lieve that Austria would not prove obdurate in regard to the latter point. Austria could not use force in the matter without involving other Powers. The consequence of war between Austria and Servia would probably have been war between the Triple Alliance and the Triple Entente. Austria’s partners in the Triple Alliance are Germany and Italy. Italy -would oppose war because she wants peace to recover from 'the expense of her own war with Turkey, and Germany would oppose tvar because she is never favourable to war except she is practically certain of success. War between the Triple Alliance and the Triple Entente at this juncture would mean that England, France and Russia would have the assistance of the Balkan Allies, or in other words of more than half a millian men hardened by experience and flushed with success. The Allies would be assisted against Austria by the sea power of the Entente, and Germany would have so much to do in defending her Eastern frontier against Russia and her Southern country against France that she would send no assistance to Austria. In a very lucid analysis of the position the London Spectator sums up the reasons why an European war is improbable. This is the essence of the statement; If the Triple Alliance were to provoke a general war in order to crush Servia, nothing could keep the Balkan Alliance fnom joining the Powers which were helping one of its members. The Turkish war, if not quite ended, would soon he ended by the use of t ie command of the sea, which belongs to the Triple Entente. The Balkan armies would at once be able to face about and begin an attack upon Austria-Hungary, helped again, and enormously helped, by sea power. Whether they would be a match or not for the Austrian field army remains to be seen, but at any rate they would have the power to prevent Austria-

Hungary from rendering help to Germany in her war with two fronts, Austria-Hungary would have enough, and more than enough, to do to hold the Balkan States in check, when they were assisted by a Franco-British fleet in the Adriatic guarding their flank and threatening Bosnia and Dalmatia. But though these considerations are so strangely Ignored in England, and even, apparently, in France,-we do not doubt that they are quite clear in Berlin and even in Vienna, though that is a region somewhat impenetrable to ideas. To repeat, if the Triple Alliance were to fight now it would fight at the very serious disadvantage occasioned by the addition of half a million fighting men to the Triple Entente. Therefore, however much Aus-tria-Hungary may bluff and grumble, the Triple Alliance will not choose—assuming of course that no wave of insanity seizes upon its members—the present moment for making war. The course of the Peace Conference has proved the accuracy of the Spectator’s view of the position, and we may take it that whether peace Is arranged or not there will he no extension of the war beyond the Balkan Peninsula.