Poverty Bay Herald PUBLISHED EVERY EVENING GISBORNE, MONDAY, OCTOBER 15, 1934. POPULATION DECLINE

Poverty Bay Herald, Volume LXI, Issue 18528, 15 October 1934, Page 6

Poverty Bay Herald PUBLISHED EVERY EVENING GISBORNE, MONDAY, OCTOBER 15, 1934. POPULATION DECLINE

The fact that the birth rate is falling in most of the white nations is probably but a natural sequence to the demolition of youth in war time and the subsequent economic depression but nevertheless it gives food fot much serious thought. Evidence is accumulating from official statistics showing a positive demographic de cadence of the white race, contemporaneous with a rising birth-rate ot the nations of the East. In Great Britain, after a steady growth for two centuries, the population lines reached its peak and ten years hence will bo in decline. This is the conclusion of statisticians, who have given the London Times an interesting survey of the changes that may overtake Britain when in 19.1(1 it will have only 41,000, 000 and by .1970 only .‘>3,000,000 people —it reduction in 40 years’ time of oru quarter of the present population total. Nor, says the Times, is this the whole story. With the decline in numbers there will also be a rapid fall in the proportion of children. In 1931 there were 10,750,000 children below the age of Hi; by 1950 the number is expected to have fallen' to 0,000,000 and by 1970 to 4,000,000. This shrinkage seems likely to be accompanied by an increase in the number of people over 05—from 3,200,000 in 1931 to 5.750,000 in 197(5 —so that the community a generation or so hence will have many more aged people than children to support—hardly a state of affairs to be contemplated with equanimity. The consequences may be far-reaching and even disastrous if not discounted in advance. In France the position has long been regarded as desperately serious—the more so to-day because of the disparity between France’s population and that of its belligerently-minded neighbor. Recently there was published a dramatic appeal to the French nation by 20 important personages in politics, science and art, designed to put the people face to face with the destiny which faces them. The birthrate, which before 1870 was over 1,000,000 a year, is shown to have fallen to 082,000, and, says the statement, “wo shall soon find ourselves with a diminution of over 80,000 births a year. Besides if the fecundity of yohng French couples continues to diminish with the average rytlim of the last six years it is mathematically certain that France will not have over 550,000 births within the next ten years, 'fhe number of deaths at that time will bo far superior to births. Already depopulation has impoverished many departments, whore villages perish and farm houses are falling in ruins. To allow the falling birth-rate to fall still lower would signify m: admission that the French people have become a people of old men and women. II would condemn France to progressive weakness. By the end of the century her population would be lower than the population of Spain. Following depopulation, agriculture, industry, and commerce will decline for want of consumers, 'flic State will become insolvent for want of taxpayers and incapable of defending itself for want of defenders. These dangers are not dislant but imminent and the present generations are those which find themselves threatened by the falling birthrate, in their goods and oven in their J

own life by the prospect of ruin and wars which the phenomenon opens before their eyes.’’ There are one oi two European states where the birthrate is even lower than in France, In Hungary the prevalent custom is one family with one child. Even iri Italy, where the Government has taken measure- to encourage fecundity, the posi lion is regarded as unsatisfactory, and Mussolini a few weeks ago published a stirring appeal, in which he stressed the importance of maintaining a healthy growth of population. To the outsider it would seem that with a yearly excess of 400,000 births the Dime’s country is not doing so badly. Germany, also, with a yearly excess of 250,000, has undertaken an energetic fight since the war to rebuild her popu lation. Mussolini mentions that in the Argentine. ien times as largo as Italy, and where from SO to 100 million people could comfortably live, a falling birthrate is annihilating the excess of births over deaths so that by 1939, it is predicted, the population will be stationary at 12,000,000 inhabitants. Mussolini argues that, the past century has completely exploded the theories of Malthas, according to which (he increase of population would lead to hunger on account of lack of food supply. The world can and should maintain a population 20 times greater than mi present. The crisis we are enduring, he says, is not one caused by famine hiu as a crisis of super-abund-ance, due largely to the decrease in population in the great industrial countries. After staling that Italy regards its policy of population promotion as an .issue of life or death, the Dnco makes the significant remark: “The point is to know whether in the face of (he increase in numbers and llu 1 expansion of the yellow and black races, the civilisation of the white race is destined to perish.’’ This is a new aspect of the “Yellow Peril” which at one time so greatly alarmed the ex-Kaiser. If the white races continue to diminish while the yellow races, already in a majority, continue io increase, it is only a matter of time before there will be vast change? in the social, political and economic relations of East and West.