ECONOMIC PROBLEMS.

Otago Witness, Issue 3830, 9 August 1927, Page 50

ECONOMIC PROBLEMS.

THE DRIFT TO THE TOWNS. LECTURE BY DR FISHER. The first of a series of six le; ires dealing with the economic problems in New Zealand was given by Dr Fisher (Professor of Economics) at the University last night. The lecture, wine’s was given under the auspices of the Workers’ Educational Association dealt ■with the question of the drift from the country to the towns—a subject which has engaged attention for many years, and one which is regarded by many people as of considerable importance to the 'immunity. There was a fairly large attendance. In the course of his remarks Professor Fisher said it was true that .he welfare of the country depended to • large extent upon its primary products. In even the simplest economy there was a great variety of occupations open to the m ‘tubers of a population. What influenc°s determined the distribution jf the p illation? Was it possible to ascertain exactly the appropriate ratio which should

be maintained between the numbers engaged in different kinds of work, and in particular was it possible to say what proportion of the population should be engaged in agricultural and kindred pursuits? Nearly everybody in New Zealand seemed to believe that it was possible to do this, for everybody deplored the fact that the urban population w is growing more- rapidly than the rural population. In 1881 the percentage of the rural popution in New Zealand was G 2.3, and there had been a steady decline ever since. The figures for successive decades were:— 1891, G 1.7 per cent; 1901, G 0. 9; 1911, 57.1; 1921, 51.2. By 1926 the proportion had dropped to 48.4 y - cent. By some people the lure of the attractions in the towns was bl .med for the drift from the country, and other things, including the land policies of Governments also came in for a share of the criticism. In some quarters the drift was regarded as an indication of the departure of the spirit which animated the pioneers. Professor Fisher went on to quote pre-war and post-war figures relative to the United States, Germany, France, Sweden, and Denmark to show that the rural populations there had declined in much the same manner as had been the case in New Zealand. This did ■not prove that the tendency was a good one, but it did suggest that it could not be explained by reference to purely New Zealand conditions. In the ideal distribution of population, we should find exactly that number engaged in each type of production whose work would suflice io meet the reasonable needs of the rest of the community. There would be waste if either more or less than the appropriate number were employed in any industry. This applied to the production of food" as to the. production of everything else. As a community became more wealthy it was, however, natural to suppose that the proportion of total time and energy devoted to the provision of food and other absolute necessaries would steadily diminish. The very complexity of organisation in a growing community would demand such specialisation in transport and similar work as would enable other men to concentrate on their own special work too. And apart from this, it would be both possible and desirable to develop other types of work which would be quite impossible in a community w’ ’ h hid to devote the whole of its energy to agriculture. The natural tendency would there fore be towards relative decline in the size of the agricultural popuL.Jon. This would be true even in a country which, like New Zealand, depended largely on the export of primary products. If there were, in an excess of population in the towns and a deficiency in the country, we e.m-oiq expect to find those who remained in the country extremely well off. wime lite townspeople would be rather depressed. Bin the farmers complained that they were being ruined, while the towns folk were prosperous. There was. however, no inevitable distribute of population as between different occupations. If the Government saw fit to offer privileges to definite types of productions more people would be attracted into them. The natural drift to the towns was inevitably intensified by a protective tariff. It was still possible to argue that on health, social, or other grounds it would be better to avoid the large aggregations of urban population which were characteristic of modern times. These were largely dependent on costs of fuel and transport. With the development of electric power and cheap transpo.t, it might be possible to dccentr lise - anufacturing, though it seemed unlikely that large-scale commercial work con’ . be carried on except in close proximity to other similar units. In many cases substantial barriers had to be urmouutcd before cnc could take up a pafticular profession, while those inside were able to move about freely, being more or less protected. In New Zealand it was commonly believed that the barriers were not so difficult to surmount as they wee in other parts of the world. Aggregations in large towns were perhaps bad, but it was very probable that the distribution of the town population would alter as time went on. There seemed to be no reason to suppose that the volume of food produced was insufficient, nor was it the case that the farmers here or in any other parts of the world received excessive incomes, ns might be expected if there were Hot enough people engaged in primary production. As a matter of fact, the farmers were all complaining that they were very

badly off as compared with f e people in the towns. It seemed a qu er sort of way to set right the disparity between town and country to suggest that more people should go to the country and leave the town people in fewer numbers to share the prosperity that was actually tkere.