THE NEGOTIATIONS.

Otago Witness, Issue 3003, 4 October 1911, Page 32

THE NEGOTIATIONS.

PRELIMINARIES TO A STATE OF WAR. The following cablegrams were published prior to the announcement by Italy that a state of war with Turkey existed: CAUSE OF THE TROUBLE. According to the Matin, Turkey', after refusing France a lease of Tripoli, announced that if an Italian warship were sent there she would expel the 50,000 Italians who now reside in the Turkish Empire and boycott Italian trade. In that event, says the paper, Italy would declare war. Italy seeks a lease of Tripoli, but offers to maintain the Turkish suzerainty. In the event of a refusal or a menace to the safety of the Italians in the Turkish Empire she will send 60,000 troops there. Italy is particularly annoyed over the despatch of war material to Tripoli. . Italy’s action is a direct consequence of The Porte’s refusal to listen to a protest against the unfair treatment of the Italians in Tripoli, coupled with a denial of that preferential treatment to which Italy is entitled by her special position, and the fact that other nations are favoured. Italy is also actuated -by a desire to consolidate her Mediterranean position, in view of France’s claims in Morocco. The Tageblatt publishes a private telegram from Vienna which states that Italy has notified all the’ Powers that she is demanding from Turkey practical guarantees for the protection of Italian interests, in Tripoli,-and that these guarantees must be of a material nature. Italy would regard permission to establish an Italian garrison in Tripoli as practical protection for Italians. An Italian Note to Turkey demands guarantees for tbs protection ’of Italians, and adds that the despatch of reinforcements to Tripoli would be regarded as am extremely serious act. It ,is understood that the guarantees are equivalent to some form of protectorate. The Minister of Foreign Affairs (the Marquis di San Giuliano) has telegraphed to Constantinople reminding the Porte that for many years Italy had urged ending the disorders and neglect' which Tripoli endured. The exigencies of civilisation now made a change vitally important. After stating Italy’s grievances, the Minister adds:-—“My Government - has decided to proceed with the occupation of Tripoli, which is the only solution.” He expects Turkey to instruct the Tripolitan representatives not to offer any opposition to the landing of Italian troops, and states that his Government will subsequently negotiate an agreement to settle the definitive situation arising out.of the occupation. A reply is requested in 24 hours. The ultimatum produced consternation in official circles, who comment' upon it most strongly. The Powers’ neutrality has keenly disappointed the Turks. On the eve of the ultimatum the Porte offered Italy concessions for building a harbour in Tripoli, and for the establishment of agricultural and commercial enterprise, with special privileges, but the offer was regarded as coming too late. Although the Young Turks are greatly excited against Italy, The Porte expresses its willingness to remedy any legitimate grievances. It is now striving to secure Germany’s and Austria’s friendly intervention. .... APPEAL TO THE POWERS. The Porte has appealed for the good offices of the Powers to restrain Italy, from hostilities. • ” " Germany has counselled The Porte to accede to Italy’s economic ambitions in Tripoli, and has urged Italy to abstain from provoking hostilities. Marschall Von Bieberstein, the German Ambassador, has assured the Sultan that Germany will make friendly representations to Italy on behalf of Turkey, but he is unable to promise success. There are indications that Germany is seeking to effect a compromise, assuring Italy’s dominance in Tripoli, and avoiding an open rupture. GENERAL STRIKE FAILS. The Socialists, Republicans, and Anarchists in Rome, Florence, and other cities are attempting to provoke anti-military outbreaks, and the Government has been compelled to station troops to repress them. Many of the railway stations are occupied by the military. Some stonethrowing was indulged in, and numerous arrests were made. A projected general strike was a complete fiasco. The extremists were unable to meet -publicly, but thy harangued private assemblages, even to the extent of glorifying regicide. The bulk of the population throughout Italy, especially in the south, and also in Sicily, is enthusiastically in favour of sending an expedition. The reservists responded with great alacrity to the summons. Everywhere they received ovations except in the provinces of Ravenna and Forli, where mobs of women and children lay across the rails, ineffectually attempting to prevent the departure of train loads of reservists, who shouted “ Long live Italy and Italian Tripoli!” TURKISH SUBJECTS IN ITALY. Italy has informed the Porte that in the event of war Ottoman subjects may remain in Italy, assured of full protection, provided they conform to the law and requirements of the situation.

The Government proposes to safeguard foreign interests and the citizens of Tripoli by Italian troops, without preference for Italian subjects, as far as the exigencies will allow. The majority of the Italians have quitted Tripoli, but some few, with the officials, remain at the Consulate. NEUTRALITY OF THE POWERS. The Daily Mail's Rome correspondent states that Italy has received assurances, of the neutrality of all the Powers. The Pope has expressed his sympathy with the Italian plans for the occupation of Tripoli, which he says constitutes a triumph for the progress of civilisation. BRITISH SUBJECTS IN TRIPOLI. There are only 300 Italian subjects and 800 protected subjects in Tripoli, while Great Britain has 4000 subjects (including 3000 Maltese). The members of the Anglo-Maltese colony implore the Government to help them to leave Tripoli. The Italian steamers are carrying only people of their own nationality. THE RIVAL FORCES. The Times publishes statistics showing that in the event of war there is no present indication that any large Italian and Turkish armies would collide. Italy's manifest naval superiority places Tripoli at her mercy, and the Sultan's armies would be unable to proceed with an attack as long as Turkey "was without the help of a naval Power capable of clearing the Mediterranean of Italian warships. Otherwise the two are hot unevenly matched. Each has approximately 1,250,000 trained men. The Times correspondent who was lately in Nigeria, in the course of an article, remarks that, events are apparently shaping in a .fashion calculated to stir the Islam depths throughout Africa, and th© consequences will possibly be momentous for the interests of African Powers. A few years ago Italian ambitions'in Tripoli might perhaps have peen achieved without much difficulty whether they were morally justifiable or not, but their active expression now occurs when two circumstances have entirely altered the situation. Firstly, there is the recrudescence of Turkey's political activity and a vast hinterland,- and, secondly, the Senussio's recognition of the Sultan's spiritual authority. PEACE OF EUROPE IN DANGER. The Times declares that outside of Italy the prominent feeling will be one of disappointment and regret at Italy's action. V Britain's sympathy would have been assured in any measures taken for the defence of legitimate interests as long as they did not violate international equity or wantonly endanger the peace of Europe, b lit the step which Italy is " i rlbw taking seems to be out of all proportion to her grievances, and to bring the peace of Europe in more imminent daiiger than has threatened it since the annexation of Bosnia-Herzegovina. FORCES OF ITALY AND TURKEY. It is interesting, in view of the possibility of Turkey and Italy going to war, to examine th©/strengths of the two Powers on land and sea. ' Th© peace strength of the Italian army in 1910 was 238,617 men, and th© total war strength could, on paper, be brought up to 3,380,000, but over two million of .these additional men would be almost untrained. Service in the army (or navy) is universal and compulsory. Italy ranks as a formidable military power, but of Late_ doubts have been expressed about the efficiency of tli© army, as compared with that of, say, France or Germany. A commission which sat a few yeans ago found serious shortcomings in it, ' especially in the artillery, and it is hardly likely that these have been remedied by now. ~ The peace strength of the Turkish army is about 375,000 men, of which many thousands are in th© Yemen, and many other detachments elsewhere. The wide disposition of th© army would make it difficult for Turkey to concentrate a force quickly ii Tripoli. Altogether, the Empire could put about 1,000,000 men into th© field, but a large proportion wouldV have little fighting value. Th© degree of efficiency whion the army has attained is a matter of doubt. Since the Revolution its reorganisation has been placed . in the hands of i German officers, and authorities agree that great improvements' have been made, but it was stated last year that Tjjrkish soldiers* were' not up to the level of those of civilisedt Powers. ; At sea Turkey would be overwhelmed by Italy if it came to an engagement. Turkey has only five armoured ships, all small and old, naif a dozen or so rmaller vessels, and about 30 "mosquito craft." Before the Revolution the navy was of no fighting value, but British officers have been at work reorganising it since then. Italy, on the other hand, is a. strong naval Power. There are 10 battleships, most of them fairly large, fairly new, and powerful, nine armoured cruisers, 14 protected cruisers, and well over a hundred torpedo boats, destroyers, and submarines.