ELECTION PROBABILITIES. Wellington, August 9.

Otago Witness, Issue 2215, 13 August 1896, Page 30

ELECTION PROBABILITIES. Wellington, August 9.

The question of the new boundaries continues, 'to absorb the entire attention of members, and banking and other matters are for the moment thrown into the shade. In the North Island the commissioners had a good deal of trouble in arranging the new bcuudaries in accordance with community of interest, and they recognise fchat in one or two places, the Bay of Plenty for instance, tbe arrangement is not a very satisfactory one. .The only alternatives they could .arrange would, however, have been much worse. On the whole the general opinion is that tbe work has been well done, although some members are naturally grieved at losing from their constituencies portions in which a large majority »f the voters were favourable to them. Tho electorates of Messrs Hogg (Mastexton) and Hall (Waipawa) have been considerably cot up, while those of Messes M Quire, G. Hutchison, and Buobeuan practically remain as formerly. Mr Buchanan stales that the alteration in the boundaries of his constituency will not make a difference of 20 votes to him. Mr Cadman is undecided whether he will contest the new Ohineinari goldfields feat or the reconstructed Waikato seat. He is likely to choose the former, as Mr fjang is extremely strong amongst the Waikato pettlers. Matters, however, will be complicated fry the appearance of Colonel Frastr, the t'ergeant-atrarms, who. is also likely to con-

test Ohinemuri. Manukau is made absolutely erfe for the Speaker. The Opposition and the Government whips, Meisrs Matsey and Harris, will contest th& Franklin seat, and Mr 1 Massey is likely to be returned. Captain Rassell has been made verj safe by the alteration in tbe boundaries cf ah electorate— so oaf e that it will require a courageous man to stand against him. The* prevailing opinion is that the three now seats will go to the Opposition. In the South Island in several instances there will probably be two Ministerialists contesting the same electorate. For- instancs, Mr Mills and Mr Buick will meet at Wairau, and, as Rangitftta has been wiped out 3 Mr Muslin will probably be found oppoiiug Mr Flatooan, of Pareora. Mr Lewis regards bis chancss, either in Christohurch or a suburban seat, as considerably improved bj the new boundaries. Mr Green will contest Chalmers, and no doubt Mr Millar will announce himeelf for Dunedin City. It is understood that Mr E&rnshaw will sband against Mr A. Morrison for Civersham. Mr A. Lee Smith, it is reported; will contest Awatua, the constituency at present, represented by the Hon. J. G. Ward. Mr Mackintosh is likely to be thrown over by the Government, and Mr Valentine, tho Opposition candidate, is almost certain of election ' for Wallace. Already a number of candidates are in the field for this constituency. It is now stated that Mr O'Reg&n will stand for tho Buller seat, Mr R. M'Kenzie, the sitting merab?r, offrriug himself for Motueka. . Tbe Hon.' G. F. Richardson leaves • for tbe south to-morrow, and will tour hia o'd constituency (Mataura), in view,of tbe forthcoming election. ' •*£. CKDEL.FATE. Among all. the "members ' who have lost .favourite corners by the readjustment of the boundaries, fate appears lo h*.ve dealt mpsfc hardly with Mnjo» Harris, junior Government whip. Jie is the silent member of the House. He seldom speaks and never threatens, but by some mysterious influence be secured last session a substantial vot3 for Howiok wharf, on condition that the residents supplemented the amount out of their own pockets. The residents did not raise tbeir share ; indeed, no one expected they would, but the Government grant was spent all the same. This Mr Earnshaw denounced the other evening a 6 a direct bribe to the people of'Howick. However, retribution ha« come, aud this valuable corner has been transferred to an adjoining electorate, and the gallant major is l«f t lamenting. He will have a very etrong opponent in Mr Massey, the Opposition whip, at the coming election, and the most oherished spot in his distriot is handed over to Sir M. O'Rorke. This is the " most uakindest cub of all."