OUR LONDON LETTER.

Otautau Standard and Wallace County Chronicle, Volume VIII, Issue 395, 3 December 1912, Page 7

OUR LONDON LETTER.

m •■ October 18: j The Balkan problem has, during the last two days, been both simplified and compli- , cated by the conclusion of peace between j Turkey and Italy. It is not supposed that ! the pourparlers would have ended so sudj denly if Turkey had not had to face the i Balkan Coalition. It was, however, of exi treme importance to neutralise Italy if Tur- | key was to hope for success in her strugi gie with the Allies. The struggle is not yet properly joined as I write, except with <Mon- , tenegro, but minor engagements are proj ceeding on every frontier. Singular as it 1 may appear, the state is not exactly one of j war; in the Balkans troops may fire across i frontiers, and men may be killed with ini- | punity. Thus the state of war might at any ! time be replaced by the hostile peace to j which we have been habituated for generaI tions. or it might blaze up into a vast ! campaign. The terms under which Turkey ' makes peace are bad, for they amount to a I complete surrender of Tripoli, whence Turkish ! troops will withdraw, subject to a shadowy religious suzerainty and to an assumption by Italy of a portion of the Turkish debt equivalent to Tripoli's share; but these arrangements free Turkey, and that is where the situation becomes both simpler and more complex. It becomes simpler because there is no longer any fear that Italy will attack Asia Minor. Italy was pledged to the great | Powers not to attack European Turkey, but she retained a free hand in Asia. Now that danger is removed and Turkey can shift her ! troops to the danger zone in Europe. The element of complication consists in the command of the sea. Up to the conclusion of the treaty the Turkish Navy could not have convoyed transports from Asia to Europe, for the Italian fleet would have captured them without fail; now the Turks have to face only the Greek Navy, which is somewhat more modern than theirs, but in nowise stronger in gun power. < This is of immense importance, for the allies probably Telied on a very slow Turkish mobilisation," on congestion on the few and inferior railway lines of Northern Asia Minor. They hoped thus to strike a great blow at the outset; to force their way to Constantinople before the Asiatic reserves arrived. This is still possible, but it is difficult, for the Turk is a good defensive fighter, and now every day's delay serves him almost as well as a victory. This is the cause of the sudden lull in the war talk; it hardly appears likely that hostilities will be averted, for the peoples of the Balkans have." bolted from their Governments, but there is just a thin chance that, by favor of this lull, .the belated efforts of the Powers will resjiftv-in an agreement under which an adequate measure of selfgovernment is given to/ Turkey's Christian provinces. It is a thin jchanec, for Turkey rid of Italy is likely to be stiff-necked, while Turkey living in fear of Italian attack in the rear might have been influenced. On balance, therefore, the complications of the new situation are greater than the simplifications, and it would be a bold man who prophesied to-morrow's developments.

**** . * * * Interesting developments in China are promised by Mr Crisp, the.' prqmoter of the Chinese loan referred to in my letters. It will be recalled that this loan was the " rebel loan," and that it was floated in London in the face of the opposition of our Foreign Office. It was not a success, for the underwriters were compelled to take some 60 per cent, of the issue; but I understand that the group is so well satisfied that it is ready to issue, when required, another £5,000,000 loan on similar terms. But it seems that the rebellion against the financial dictature of the Powers is to be carried further. The group are ready with money to pay the Boxer indemnity if the Powers attempt to dragoon China, ready with as much as £20,000,000. Moreover, there is talk of a Chinese State Bank, with a capital of £2,000,000, one-half to be supplied by the Chinese Government and one-half by five nations. The object is laudable, for the bank would deal mainly with the currency question. Those New Zealanders who trade' with China well know the exasperation caused by the fluctuations of silver; nowadays they cannot tell exactly how much they owe or are owed by their correspondents in China. A bank capable of introducing the gold standard would be doing a great commercial service to China and to the rest of the world.

I I venture, however, to think China unwise in I admitting " five nations " into the State I Bank ; the powers, England included, have so^ | far behaved as pirates in China, and there' is no reason to think that they will mend their ways. Chinese money in a Chinese bank is alone capable of freeing China. / *******

The speed trials of the New Zealand, to which I alluded in my letter of the 16th, have come to a very satisfactory conclusion, for the Fairfield Shipbuilding and Engineering Company, of Glasgow, who are respou- ' sible for her, announce th.it she has attained ; a speed of 27 knots. This is superior to any j ; performance so far recorded for vessels of j . the New Zealand's displacement. I

******* Mr Lloyd George has at last announced the ■ Bills Avhich are to be passed through the ! 1 House of Commons before prorogation. Home ! Rule, Disestablishment, and the Reform • Bill are, of course, included. The first two [ are not likely to give rise to incidents graver than vocal protests; the third, however, may ' jeopardise the existence of the Government owing to the women's suffrage amendment. A number of such amendments p.re likely to be put forward, with a view to enfranchising either a limited number of women (householder and occupiers mainly), or as many women as qualify under an adult suffrage system. I have in previous letters indicated at some length how difficult is the position of the Government, who are internally divided on the point. We can take it for granted that the Radical wing will oppose a limited extension ; that the Liberal Centre will ob- ' ject to adult suffrage. The attitude of the Unionists is not yet fixed. They have no chance of turning out the Government on this point, for they will not adopt the suffrage amendments ; but the Labor members are practically pledged to support adult suffrage. I If that particular amendment fails, Labor I may suddenly coalesce with the Unionists and overthrow the Government on some other clause as an act of revenge. This possibility is strengthened by the proclamation of the National Union of Women's Suffrage Societies — the powerful constitutional group — that it will in future support the Labor party. This is a clear and intelligent bid for Labor pressure. _ Taking these factors into consideration, the balance of probability is that the limited amendment will pass, for the Labor party may be disinclined to sacrifice the Osborne Judgment Bill, which is on Mr Lloyd George's list. To overthrow the Government would be to lose this Bill, which at last gives the trade unions power to use union money for political agitation. No other important Bill, except that which is to deal with the white slave traffic, has been allowed to stand in this concentrated programme. The Railway Rates Bill, originally intended to compensate the companies for the increases of salary they were compelled to grant their men, has, I understand, been dropped. The Government have shown their wisdom in this, for it was extremely distasteful to the Radicals. Certainly there is little room for higher rates in a country where private companies can exact from passengers a penny a mile.

******* Two interesting women's suffrage items have come to light. On the one hand Mr Mark Wilkie has been released. He was imprisoned because his wife, a well-known suffragist, refused to fill in her Income Tax return or to pay the amount on which she was assessed. Being responsible, Mr Wilks was I imprisoned, and has been released only because he is unable to pay, and because the | Government realise the absurd condition of I the law. At present a man may not touch \ his wife's income, under the Married Wo- [ men's Property Act, but he is liable for her j Income Tax, even if he does not know the amount of her income. Gilbert and Sullivan law; it cannot remain long unamended. The other item is that Mr and iMrs Pethick Lawrence have left the Women's Social and Political Union after a disagreement in policy with Mrs Pankhurst. They retain the management of 'Votes for Women,' while the j W.S.P.U. issues this week a new organ entitled ' The Suffragette.' The cleavage is unfortunate, but such incidents are inherent to all progressive movements, for strong individualities must be expected to clash. Still, the parting appears to be cordial, and I understand that the two camps are prepared to continue to co-operate, each on their own lines.

* * * * * * * Prince Lichnowsky has been appointed as I German Ambassador here in succession to the | late Baron Von Bieberstein. The new Ambassador is a personal friend of the Kaiser, Little is known of him save that he is a diplomatist by profession, and not a brilliant politician-freelance like his predecessor. He will be valuable at the present juncture, for he has represented his country in Constantinople, Bucharest, and Vienna, while he has had some acquaintance with London, where he was an attache. Whether he will succeed in establishing better relations between Britain and Germany remains to be seen. Prince Lichnowsky certainly has an opportunity at present, when divergence on the Balkan question is probably acute behind the scenes. It is no small matter to balance Russia against Austria-Hungary, and to do so is essential.