THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES Monday, June 16, 1941. A SOVIET DILEMMA?

Otago Daily Times, Issue 24634, 16 June 1941, Page 4

THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES Monday, June 16, 1941. A SOVIET DILEMMA?

British opinion must be slow to accept as anything other than an impressive feint, or else as another move in the complicated play of pressure politics in which HenHitler indulges/the concentration of Nazi forces along the Soviet frontier. There is no reason to believe that M. Stalin is friendly towards Great Britain; there is every reason, since the Russo-German pact was announced in August, 1939—after an Anglo-French diplomatic mission had been, presumably with great hopes* negotiating an instrument of like nature—for distrusting appearances where M. Stalin's relations with the outside world are involved But if it is beyond all things idle to build oh what seems like evidence of a strained situation between Germany and the U.S.S.R., it is at least not necessary to accept at their face value. Moscow's emphatic denials of any Russo-German difficulties. One of the things which Herr Hitler was known to want for Germany, in the years before his ambitions encompassed, half the world, was the Soviet Ukraine. The political economist, planning for a greater Germany the ideal disposition Of territory under a "New Order," would certainly mark for plunder that fertile and, from the military viewpoint, comparatively vulnerable, area. Two years ago M. Stalin, in one of his infrequent pronouncements, characterised Herr Hitlerwith non-Asiatic vehemence—as a lunatic for dreaming of annexing the Soviet and intimated there we're straight-jackets enough ; in Russia to restrain all who might cherish such an ide'a. Conditions have altered much since then, and not least strangely in the development of ostensibly warm relations between Germany and the Soviet. In. bloody harmony they. divided Poland. Hitler went on to over-run the European, Continent while M Stalin seized the opportunity to pick up what he coufd—his Finnish adventure, incidentally, proving no advertisement for the efficiency of the huge Red Army. Russia has been supplying Germany with vital re-, quirements, including oil; but not in the quantities promised. Russia has recognised Nazi control of Jugoslavia and Bulgaria, among other spoils; but after having ostentatiously held out the hand of friendship to these States while their fate lay in the balance. To the rebel faction in Iraq, Russia hastened to accord recognition even before the abortive revolt was fairly under W ay.»-and Soviet "volunteers " were reported as joining Raschid Ali even while the extent of the German aid he was receiving was still undetermined.

AH of this may be symptomatic ;of a deep-laid and extraordinarily subtle collaboration between Herr Hitler and M. Stalin, designed' to obscure the singleness of their aims while they prepare a division of the Middle East. But it might also, without entering the realm of fancy, suggest that. Stalin is apprehensive that a toorsuccessful Hitler would be able to bite off the Ukraine, seize control of the Black Sea outlet, and bar Russia from participation in the fruits of a conquest extending to the Persian Gulf. If Hitler were to succeed in carrying through Turkey to Syria, Iraq, Iran, and to the gateway of India, it would mean a very great, contracting of the Soviet's opportunities for expansion. It would mean that the great but cumbersome Union of Soviet Socialist Republics would be virtually isolated in an aggressor's world dominated by Hitler. This is speculation upon the grand scale. But it can scarcely be doubted that such visions of grandeur have assailed the Fuhrer's eyes, and that one of M. Stalin's preoccupations at .the present time is calculating what Herr Hitler may have : in view. The reports of Nazi .troop concentrations facing Russia are rather too persistent and wellaccredited to be dismissed as mere rumour. It may be, as the diplomatic correspondent of The Times admits as possible, that Hitler is seeking thus to draw attention from a plan for the invasion of the British Isles. But he could hardly hope, by that. or any other ruse, to throw the British off guard; and Moscow's official denials that the despatch of Nazi forces to the frontier is. of any concern to the Soviet at least suggest that if the move is an elaborate feint Russia is not a party to it. The theory that Hitler is pressing the Soviet for concessions, probably industrial, seems more tenable. If it should be correct, Russia can be expected to concede—or to refuse to do so. If threats served to win Soviet compliance now, Herr Hitler might be much encouraged in his Ukrainian aspirations. And M. Stalin must then decide whether to pursue a Vichy-like path of evergrowing collaboration with the Axis, which would not lead him to greater power and glory.