WIDE CAMPAIGN

Otago Daily Times, Issue 23886, 14 August 1939, Page 7

WIDE CAMPAIGN

IS JAPAN RIDING FOR A FALL? PROVOKING THE WEST EXTRAORDINARY SITUATION WITH RUSSIA Relations between Japan and the neutrals have steadily become worse during the past few months. The continued closure of the Yangtse to third Power trade, the constant interference with and over-riding of neutral rights, and discrimination against their trade, and the almost daily destruction of neutral properties by aerial bombing, had exasperated American, British and French opinion before the enunciation of the "new order in East Asia" policy raised a further fundamental issue with the democracies. The Governments ,of the three Powers have made it quite clear that they will not now or in future recognise Japanese pretensions in China, and the situation has recently been aggravated by the deliberate attempt to dragoon the British Government into reversing its policy by the blockade of Tientsin (writes Mr H. G. W. Woodhead, Shanghai correspondent of the Sydney Morning Herald). It is fully recognised in London, Washington and Paris that any weakening on the part of the British Government on questions of general policy would result in the complete collapse of foreign rights and interests in China.

There is little doubt that, but for the activities of American isolationists, the British Government would have rejected the idea of negotiations in Tokio while military interference with the British area in Tientsin continued. Public opinion in Britain has been so incensed by reports of what has occurred in the northern port that no' British Government would dare to compromise on the broader issues that have now b«en raised. It must surely be the first occasion on which any foreign Government has had the effrontery to demand that Britain should reverse her foreign policy. Though ostensibly aimed at Britain alone, the blockade has adversely affected American interests to an almost equal degree. Exports from Tientsin to the United States in June amounted to only 79.119 United States dollars, compared with 865,666 dollars for the month of May, The patience of the two Anglo-Saxon Powers has been strained almost to breaking point, and it is becoming increasingly diglcult to see any alternative to ultimate retaliation. ' Campaign In Mongolia The state of Russo-Japanese relations at the Dresent time is well-nigh incredible. Almost daily incidents on the Manchukuo-Siberian frontier have recently given olace to pitched battles on the Manchukuo-Outer Mongolian border. If Japanese reports could be credited, in the course of three or four weeks they have shot down approximately 500 Soviet and Outer-Mongolian Dlanes. The outside world has received these reports with utter incredulity. Moscow, however, has admitted that large-scale fighting has been in progress, and. as is generally known, the Soviet Government is committed to the defence of Outer Mongolia by a defence pact signed in March. 1936. It hardly seems possible that fighting on this scale can continue much longer without bringing this defence pact into operation. The time factor is becoming a more and more vital element in Japan's continental plans. That. presumably is the reason why her militarists have deliberately risked a rupture with Great Britain in the north. The nrosoects of success of the New Order in East Asia nolicv are extremely remote if the democracies adhere to their present stand, and continue to afford moral and limited material support to the Chinese Government. China's MftVa! Resistance In the past two years China has suffered continuous and serious reverses which, according to all conventional theories, would implv that she had lost the war and had no alternative but to sue for peace. Only in Shanghai and in Taierchwang did Chinese troops offer really effective resistance to the invaders. Inefficient leadership and lack of co-ordination in the field resulted in the rapid and successive loss of positions which should have been held indefinitely. An amazing feature of the hostilities has been that inefficient leadership and continuous reverses do not appear seriously to have affected the morale of the Chinese forces. Much nonsense has been talked about a plan of campaign which involved luring the Japanese farther and yet farther inland. China could derive no oossible advantage from razing scores of her most prosperous and important cities to the Pround. Nevertheless, the extension of Japan's operations inland has now reached a noint where each additional advance adds to her embarrassments. If the fall of Hankow and Nanchang. Canton and Swatow. has failed to weaken China's will to resist it is difficult to see where Japan can go for a really decisive victory She lost the opportunity of makine a reasonable oeace after occupying Nanking, where the excesses of her military forces l.orrified Chinese and foreigners alike, and undoubtedly strengthened the demand for resistance to the last.