JAPAN’S NEW OUTLOOK

Otago Daily Times, Issue 18465, 28 January 1922, Page 17

JAPAN’S NEW OUTLOOK

INFLUENCED BY AMERICA. A STRIKING CHANGE. J (By the Special Correspondent of the 4 Melbourne Argue.) TOKIO, November 25. Japan, improving on the plea', of Clive, ■ Boema determined to as toman the world by her moderation at the Washington Conference. To many of your readers it must seem that their eyes—or the eyes of the writers on Japan in the last five'years — have been deceiving them. Where is the militarist nation of common report? Where Uia immitigable policy of naval and military expansion ? Where'the ruthless pressure on Otuna? Where the clamour for race equality ? To observers in Japan the change is no less suggestive. The press ia now discussing the A n glo-Japaneso Alliance. With efgha of regret it is admitted that the pact will hj,ve to go, since it is apparently incompatible with friendship with America, but ttio spiritual bonds that unite the two island empires, so wo ore assured, will remain, Q/iieir memories iwb not to bo those of a squalid divorce, but of halcyon honey-moon days, when Japan and the world were young. Compare _ this with the virulent attacks on the alliance and England in 1916, compare it also with the inspired insistence on renewal about the time of the Imperial Conference. The American naval plan, instead of provoking outbursts of jingo anger, ia supported: by the whole press; some influential newspapers even condemn the qjlorts of the Japanese- delegates to save the three postJutland ships which are doomed to the sorapheap by the Hughtgj proposal Demands are made for the reduction of the Japanese army by 50 per cent. The open door in, China ia affirmed to be Japan’s greatest wish. A negative but significant sign is the dead silence on race equality. Ail this “publio opinion” evidently owes nothing to official inspiration, but unquestionably it does not run counter to official ' national policy as it is being stated at Washington. That policy oan best be described as one of non-obstruotion. Subject to one or two fixed {joints that are not in themselves unreasonable, and are not likely to bo irreconcilable with the fixed points of American policy, the leadens of Japan are plainly showing fjmt they have resolved to fall in with the views of the British Empire and the United Btatea. A CHANGE OF HEARTIt seems impossible to deny thlt there baa been a profound change. The question for the rest of the world i»: How fox does that changed policy represent a change ot heart? Is Japan merely floating with a current which at the moment ia too strong to be resisted, and biding the time when her imperialistic tendencies can again be safely asserted? Ia she wailing the usual reaction in, American affairs when the now President and Admijuatratioin have Soot' their, popularity, and when the nation, grown weary of the intractable problems that a world-policy will involve, resumes its traditional ‘‘disentanglement?” Prediction in the profession of the soothsayer; newspapers can deal only with visible and more, or less .ponderable facts. Japan, I fear, wjjl have to walk in the new ways for some time ■ before the world ia convinced of her conversion. As a hitherto sceptical observer I will merely list Certain facto which lead me to think that Washington is registering a real change of course by Japan. . The old course is clearly marked by a number, of conspicuous acts of policy. During the world war Japan profited by the absorption of other nations to embark on the aggressive forward movement. She * utilised the opportunity of driving the Germans from Tsmgtao to seize the Shantung railway, ond advance half-way -up it towards Peking. She presented the notorious 21 Demands,- which, if granted in: their entirety, would have made China , a vassal State. She financed civil war in that country. She sent 70,000 men to Siberia when the Americans sent 7000, and she took up positions dominating half of the enormous land. She occupied the Island, of Saghalien. In 1914 she added two divisions to her already ample army. last year she passed.into law a:naval programme which bjv 1927-8 would have given her 16 post-Jutland-coital ships. If these actions on the part of a nation strategically so impregnable as Japan are not evidence of an aggressive policy there never has been such evidence. SENSITIVE TO CRITICISM. .The results were not what had been expected, and they wore not long delayed. The effect on opinion in other countries was ' unmistakable. Someone said that Japan woe the Germany of the East, and though the Japanese bitterly resented, it, the phrase Imd enough truth' to riiake it stick. A strain in" (relations with the United States was, immediately perceptible, and it steadily increased, notwithstanding official , and unofficial “.better understanding ’ ’ missions. , Books poured frejm .the press pillorying’ Japan as the now menace to peace. Onopeychologicaf “ imponderable ” inay be introduced, into this catalogue of facts. "Tt a matter, of general observation that the Japanese at® sensitive to ‘criticisrry to a degree that the self-confident Briton scarcely realises. The majority of modern business men in Japan above the shop l keeping level have been to America or have sent their sons there, and they were impressed by the universal suspicion aroused by. the-octs of their Government. In China Japan’s policy provoked outbursts of anger on a deeper and wider scale than any other foreign nation has experienced, and a boycott of Japanese goods paralysed trade for months. The Japanese deliverers ” of Siberia inspired among the Russians a hatred and fear which could- not be .concealed.- Japan saw herself . morally isolated. ‘ ■ ; At the same time there was a change in the world’s balance of power. The United-States, after two years’ delay, created an army ariH sent it to Europe. No event of the war impressed tho Japanese so strongly. ' It compelled a complete revision ol their estimate of America. President Wilson’s journey to Paris and his share in bringing the League of Nations into being, the immense American; naval pro-: gramme,: the' decision, to remain in the Philippines, the creation of a merchant fleet, the formation of a loan consortium for China at the instance of the United States, which had ostentatiously withdrawn from tho old one; the swarming of American business men to China when the industries of the old world were out of actionmany facts 'combined to herald the entry of America on the world stage. Tho balance of power for Japan was irrevocably changed. It is not necessary io throw stones at the Japanese militarists, or to suppose them to be animated bv baser motives than tho rets of mankind. Their-policy can be explained by the assumption that they expected a German victory or a draw, and determined to peg out rich claims for tho scramble that would follow. The victory of tho Allies and, above all, the appearance of America as a’ military Power, brought about a change of circumstances. In Asia the policy had brought no tangible results commensurate with its coat. In the wider field of international relations the Japanese saw themselves plunging into , antagonism with Ainerica. The naval rivalry which had had such fatal results for tho militarist empire in tho North Sea was being transferred to the Pacific. Tho collapse of tho export trade warned financiers that there would be difficulty in paying for the ships already sanctioned.: America is the best ■ known of all countries to Japanese. They understand its size, its wealth, its resources, and something of the spirit of its people. They saw themselves drifting into antagonism with their best customer and their most formidable neighbour. When these facts are brought together the reasons, for believing in a change of Japan’s policy ore clear. WORKING WITH OTHER POWERS. A number of internal events must bo briefly mentioned, for they constitute our evidence for believing that the change ;s ■ more than a mere trimming of sails, and is a gign that the leaders of Japan have resolved to oast in their lot with the liberal Power's and play their 'part in the world movement. Tho military Premier was succeeded'by a politician, and b'n his assassination by a orazy hoy ho was again succeeded by a politician, instead of by a bureaucrat, as had been customary; A change of direction has been clearly shown in Japan’s China policy. There have been no more loans for civil war. Japanese diplomacy is working "With that 'of the other Powers. For two years there have been no complaints of discrimination against foreign traders !n Japan’s sphere' in Chinn. Proposals have been made for the settlement of the Shantung/question which represent a great advance from the position taken up by Japan at Versailles. - In Siberia two of the throe Japanese divisions have been withdrawn, and Japan’s troops only hold the maritime province. There is reason to hope that the negotiation's with the Russjans which are now going on will result in the' complete evacuation of the mainland. Sa.gholien wijl. probably. remain Japanese. ■ It was a homin’a land up. till half a century , ago, and Japan has old claims. Little, indeed, is left of the grandiose enterprises of a few years ago. A silent rearrangement, little spoken • of,, but vitally important, has taken

place in the groups around and behind the throne which shape Japan’s policy virtually without reference to tho immature electorate. Prince Yamagata, for over 40 years at the head of tho army and the Government in some capacity or other, and latterly as chief of the Elder Statesmen, wielding almost supremo power, lias faded into practical retirement at the ago of 83. His place was filled in the last political crisis by Prince Saionji, a civilian and party leaSer with no army affiliations. The Minister of the Imperial Household is Viscount Makino, also a civilian, and a broad-minded modern statesman. On tho day that this is written there is taking place within the triple moat of tho Imperial Palace a ceremony behind tho picturesque colouring of which lie important realities. The Crown Prince, before tho Imperial Shrine, has informed the spirits of his ancestors that by tho Emperor’s command he has assumed the Regency. It was known early in the year that he would have to be Regent, but before tho appointment was made he was sent to England to complete his education and gain a glimpse of tho_ British constitutional monarchy. His political adviser is to be Count Chinda, former Ambassador to London, a civilian, and a member of the group which cultivates friendship with Britain, and dislikes the militarist clique which has controlled the country for many years. The throne is now surrounded by moderate and progressive A change of this kind is infinitely more important than anything which could bo effected by the ineffective and immature forces of Japanese Liberalism. There is a growth of Liberal sentiment in the country, but the Liberals are still too inexperienced politically to be able to transmute that sentiment into national policy, even if they were not handicapped by a Constitution which has tho elected House checked and balanced into impotence, and ■ which gives the vote ,to one m 20 of the population. The now policy springs from the _ perception by tho real loaders of tho nation of a change in tho world conditions. They see that tho Allied victory was real, after all; that ■ militarism is down and AngloAmerican democracy in the saddle. They have elected to go with the world movement, and not to offer it blockheaded resistance. It is substitution of enlightened opportunism for the Prussian doctrine of expansion by force. The policy which we may reasonably expect this new • spirit to dictate is one which will retain the friends ship of the Liberal Powers, and enable Japan to work out the salvation of her crowded masses by the development of industries and tho peaceful exploitation of tho natural resources of China.