FUTURE OF TRADE

Otago Daily Times, Issue 17324, 25 May 1918, Page 5

FUTURE OF TRADE

A GERMAN'S PESSIMISM. Dr Meersmann, a very eminent authority on German economics, has written an interesting pamphlet, entitled "Tho Outcome of the War and German Industry." Ihe main interest: of the pamphlet lies in the fact that Meersmann, who has hitherto been identified witli tho cheerful Pan-t-ier-man view of the future of economic Germany, has executed a complete volte face, lln( ' »°w discovers that cheerfulness about tho future is misplaced, and that there is rather room, for the gravest anxiety. Economic success, he says, is tho foundation on which a Groat Power is built, and tho future of Germany as a Great Power depends absolutely on her success in developing and rebuilding her industries. Before the war, says Dr Meersmann, Germany found the moans to pay for her imports in hor valuable exports of finished products, in her world-embracing shipping, her insurances, and her foreign investments. But in tho course of the war this state of affairs has completely altered. There are no receipts now from shipping, 110 insurances, 110 foreign investments, and the value of tho exports to neutral States is too small to be considered. The minus against Germany it is impossible to make good by the export of gold, and tho result is tho sinking of the exchange which must have cost Germany milliards of marks. Tho author expresses grave anxiety with regard to the possibility of sales in foreign markets. England, with remarkable con sistency, her allies also, he says, has pursued the policy of endeavouring to crush the economic power of Germany. She oar ried on this method, for years before till l war, and it is clear from the conclusions of the Paris Economic Conference that all tho enemy States have pledged themselves after the war to follow the policy which will make all German enterprise impossible, and to render futilo all Germany's efforts to regain a footing in foreign markets. Even though it. were possible to compel tho enemies of Germany to relinquish this hostile attitude, tho aversion against Germany of foreign countries, would remain, and would be a formidable hindrance to German effort-. The author regards it as a dangerous and stupid belief that a socalled understanding at tho peace negotiations would break down tho repulsion of foreign peoples to Germany, and make them inclined to open their doors or display a disposition to re-enter on the old relations. Germany, after the war, will be confronted with a now world. Her cost of production will bo greatly increased, wages will be double or treble tho old rates. It is the same in other States, but other States are moro favourably situated with regard to raw material. This is the groat and perplexing question of tho future—the question of the creation of new economic possibilities. "We must have largo, extending, and everincreasing economic elbow-room. Our population is increasing. The increase is 12 per cent, against England's 10.3 per cent., and France's 1.5. England claims one-fifth of the surface of the earth, notwithstanding its limited population, and sterile France owns an empire which is double that of tho entire economic field of action of the Centra.! Powers." In view of this alarming situation. Meersman sees no other course for Germany than the extension of hpr political power. If Germany's flabby statesmen could only rid their minds of empty formulas like "No annexations and no indemnities," .and pursue a trenchant and German policy, they would remove much from the path of their country which otherwise threatens serious menace. " Our merchants and industrial captains must seriously consider a situation 011 which the entire future of the nation depends. If we allow our existence to bo subjected to hampering restrictions, the entire nation is confronted with a sorrowful future."