MOTES ON THE CABLES.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 17066, 26 July 1917, Page 5

MOTES ON THE CABLES.

By Shkapnel

THE SITUATION ON THE "WEST FRONT. It is difficult from tho scarcity of the signs and the paucity of information to discover what Sir Douglas Haig's plans are for tho European autumn. An analysis of tho German mind is easier. German guns and reserves have been increased behind the front from La Basseo to the coast opposite Nieuport. The actions of tho enemy admit of two interpretations. Either they anticipate a British offensive on tho sectors forming that part of the line or their concentrations and great artillery activity mean that they are making a show of taking tho offensive themselves Tho phrase "making a show" is of course intended to imply covert tactics. If tho Germans' object is not to make an attempt towards Dunkirk and Calais, then it is to overthrow the preparations for another British attack. Tho German Staff expects that a threat in Flanders will bo sufficient to draw British guns and reserves to that front. It also anticipates that the possibility of the British striking between Lens or Arras and St. Quentin is very remote, the Germans' belief being that tho French are on the road to exhaustion, and that there can now be no combined offensive by tho western Allies. They have taken literally M. Painlevc's statement that the French armies must remain on the defensive until America is able to relieve the position.

If tho German deductions in that respect be regarded as well founded, there would be little to be gained by the British driving in towards Cambrai unless they are prepared to bear almost the whole brunt of the struggle to drive the enemy out of the industrial departments of France. It is, however, the fixed determination of the Germans to hold tho mining districts of Fiance to the last. To lose them would reduce Germany v s economic strength and increase that of Franco; but the gain to Franco would be greater than the loss to Germany. That strategical consideration weighs more greatly With the Germans than would the less of prestige through their having to give up the territory. If they are willing to pay the price the British'can drive the Germans out of the country between Lens and Lille, but a consideration which influences them is whether it would be better to do that now or wait till the Germans further exhaust themselves, " and then, when tho decisive trial of strength comes, to make the offensive continuous until the Germans are driven out of Belgium or back upon the Mouse.

A mature consideration of the points and of the general situation in all the theatres of war—in the cast of Europe and in Asia, as well as in the west of Europe— it appears that it would be better to delay any great offensive until 1918, when the TJnitod States should have an army in France that will change the viewpoint of the Allied General Staffs on the west front. In the meantime, then, the plan of the Allies may be to increase their big guns and howitzers and improve their power of mobility. For that purpose they will have to organise and increase the railway construction corps and accumulate an abundance of railway material of the usual kind and any improved military traction machinery that may bo devised, for as the Germans retreat they will remove every pound of metal, every sleeper, and destroy every bridge, as they have done from the Somme front to the Hindenburg line. In view of the confusion in Russia, and of the terrible burden which France has so heroically and uncomplainingly borne, and is still resolved to bear, no great forward struggle may be undertaken this year. A unique opportunity, if it occurs, may lead to an advance such as the French made north of Verdun, but will such a chance bo again presented by the Germans? It is safe to say it will not unless Russia shakes herself free of the trammels of anarchy and sedition. GREAT ACITYITY ON WEST FRONT. iTencn and Uerinan reports of the hgnting on the west front. are more ealigjicenmg in , their detans ~tnan toe Britisn,—not because the Britisn! are doing little, but because otlicial British reports by Bir Douglas Jiajg consist ot few words, simple ana direct. Unless it is obviously necessary to counter some of the German allegations, the' British Commanaer-in-Ouef is letting the Germans report what tnov do, and oiten wnat they do not. A German official message, partly confirmed by a DVeoeh report, says there is an incessant artillery duel of unprecedented intensity in Flanders. That .implies that to© Britisn are 'becoming aggressive tnere; but from lormer messages we' nave learnt that the Germans initiated this bombardment, and the inference is that the British are replying to it con amore. Further, the British thrusts are said to be increasing. That the German reports must be read with a pinch of salt is seen in the reference to the lighting north of the Aisne, This would lead us to believe that the French have been ceaselessly attacking along the Ghemin des Dames. It is to be gathered, however, from the reports issued by the French that their policy is to await attacks or feint to provoke German attacks. It is to be noted that the German message omits to mention that the French made a successful attack for the purpose of wresting the natural fortress formations called the casemates from the Germans on the edge of the broken plateau near Gr&onne, We can believe the Germans penetrated Caurieres Wood, and inflicted heavy losses, when the French mako reference, to an engagement of such a nature. M. Marcel Hutin expresses the opinion that the German batteries from the coast to the Scarpe, air squadrons, and the reserves of troops near Lille have been, strongly reinforced. From the extent of the enemy artillery. along both the British and French fronts, it is evident that the German military authorities have during the last 12 months been devoting great attention to the task of meeting the British artillery production and supply of ammunition supply on equal terms. One of the purposes of their great submarine campaign has been to divert British energies from the production of guns, while they have themselves been strenuously at work to equaliso or surpass the British output and employment of artillery. Though the Allies are not really engaged in an offensive of the known variety, a tremendous artillery battle is either being fought or being begun on the west front. The Germans have apparently initiated it. GERMANY AND HOLLAND. The export of coal from Germany to Holland has heen stopped. Either revenge or compulsion is at the bottom of the German decision. Dutoh jurists have expressed the opinion with reference to the recent capture of German vessels by British naval scouts that tho British were within their rights in chasing tho German ships into territorial waters if the attack commenced outside the limit. As it was probable that tho attack did so commence, and as there is a prospect of an amicable solution to the difficulty as 'between Groat Britain and Holland, tho German prohibition of the export of coal may be a coercive act, as well as one of distemper. It is known that Germany has for a long time been endeavouring to embroil Holland with the Allies, in order to obtain submarino bases in her excellent ports and to protect the German northern flank. Moreover, Germany wants to usp Holland's supply of men and her cattle and field products. There is no doubt that the element of compulsion bulks largely in this economio manoeuvre.

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