THE ISOLATION OF FRANCE

Otago Daily Times, Issue 16120, 8 July 1914, Page 4

THE ISOLATION OF FRANCE

(By J)f AUMOAAI'.II K.UII, (iItAVKS, ill Collier's Weekly.)

After my experiences with the. earlier :=la;;e.s of the French, English, and GeriiiiiTi situation, I was quite prepared for the niont unexpected developments. What occurred in th.; mid.lie of October, 1911.

was, however, beyond what 1 had imagined. The Morocco incident had shown Uk , (Jennaii Enijioror that the entente cordiale was indeed solid. England and France would stand shoulder to shoulder in war. JSeing used to tho ways of • ierman diplomacy, I know that from the Williolmsfras&e- would come a quick counterniove. 1 guessed, tr«, that when it came J would be employed. It skxxl to reason that, knowing so much of the trend and importance of the affair—l had seen the intrigue grow step by step —I was the logical ohoice. Nor was my reasoning at fault. I soon received the "expected summons, and it brought mo into the most amazing of my diplomatic adventures—a mission which showed me the utter ruthlessness that characterises emperors a<nd kings, particularly when the vital interests of their countries are concerned. — The Black Forest Summons. — Word to appear at the Wilhelmstrasse came when the autumn holidays were in full swing. The usual procedure of the Foreign Office having been observed, I found myself in Count von Wedell's private study. After an invitation to he seated, the Count surprised me. He complimented me on my previous mi&sions on the entente cordial* situation, and handed me a pretty substantial cheque. It was actually 10,000 marks—2sCodol,—which ths stubs of the Royal cheque book will show.

Aa I took the money he remarked, " Seirw Majestat " —Foreign Office brevity for conveying that his Majesty was satisfied. Without more ado Von Wedell plunged into the subject. Leaning back and crossing his legs, he began to talk in his abrupt way. " I want you to go with his Excellency. Herr von Kiderlen-Wacchter. as his private attendant and secretary," began Von Wedell. "I have selected you because of your knowledge of English and your insiccht into tha whole matter in hand. There is to be a meeting of certain statesmen in a certain spot in the iSchwarzwald (the Black Forest). You are to be tho sole attendant of these gentlemen. You'll see to it that nothing of their identity becomes known. You will look after them in every way. You will destroy all writing, such as paper and blotters.. You will burn anv such things in the presence of Herr von KiderlenWaechter."

He paused impressively, and I fonnd my mind in a whirl. What his words portended I could guess. This mission promised to be very interesting indeed.

" I want you to be cat the place of meetin £,'' Von Wedell continued, " three days before the arrival of these frentlomen. You will have to make arrangements as regards catering and so forth. You'll be the only attendant. Means have been taken to assure strict privacy in the district. Understand that we want this to be thoroughly cloaked. I suggest to you the idea of a hunting paTty. The details I leave to you. The irentleme-n in question may or may not be known to you. I shall write you their names."

— The Tremendous Import.— His pen began scratching across a piece of paper, and I had a moment in which to realise the' grave importance of this mission : the future of Germany menaced; complete isolation was in the' making between England, France, and Russia; and the Kaiser was about to save Germany by a master stroke of diplomacy. Of what tremendous importance it was, however, I did not learn until I had gone down into the forest.

Looking up, Von Weddel tossed a piece of paper across the desk to me. It bore these mames in his handwriting:—Viscount Haidane, Winston Spencer Churchill, Admiral von Tirpitz, General von Hceringen, General Moritz Bitter von Auffonbevg, Herr von Kiderlen-Wa-echter.

I suppose, had it been my first secret service mission instead of the climax of 11 years in the service, I could not Lave controlled my surprise. These men, all meeting in a lonely spet in the tfhck Forest Bangs, foretold a grave situation. Especially was this true in view of the newspapers of Europe. Here Avas all the press having Germany and England ready to rush at each other's throat in war. It was the time of the German spv scare in England. And now here were the two powerful members of the English Cabinet meeting the Kaiser's' Minister of War secretly.

— Brains of Three Nations.— But Von Wedell was not yet through. " These gentlemen," he said, " will meet at Schlangenbad about the middle of this month. You know the place—in the Taunns Hills, one of the Emperor's hunting lodges. I suggest that you get down there to-morrow and have everything' ready. You thoroughly know what is required of you, Doctor , '"

On rrtv assenting I was dismissed. I lost no time in getting home to my quarters and into comfortable togs. This mission needed some thinking out. And after I told my Basiito boy to pack mv .-tag, I glanced at the list Von Wedell iwd given me.

Haldane, Lord Chancellor of England, persona grata with the Kaiser—in fact, a personal friend. Churchill, First Lord of the British Admiralty. Waechter, the German Minister of Foreign Affairs and, despite Court opposition, the trusted man of the Kaiser. Tirpitz and Von Heeringen, chiefs of the Germany navy and army staffs, the latter a second Moltke. When I came to Von Auffenberg's name I whistled. Von Auffenberg was Minister of War and the right-hand man of the Chancellor of the Austrian Empire. Thus three great Powers were represented. Six men or this eminence, the brains and force of three nations, to meet in secret in a little obscure hunting lodge in the forest! It portended darkly for France; but how ■darklv I could not then conjecture. It interested me tremendously, but I consoled myself that I would probably know all when the party gathered in that secluded hunting lodge. According to instructions, I presented myseli early next mornimr at the residence of Herr von Kiderlen-Waecbter. It was in the Thiergartenstrasse. Without delay I was shown i::to his Excellency's room. He was seated at his desk, and while we exchanged a few perfunctory words I permitted 1 myself a moment's brief conjecture.

— A Statesman and His Waistcoats. — Judging from appearances, you would never have token this portly, rubicund, iron-grev, bushy-»browed gentleman to be a statesman. But a statesman he was for all that, and the Emperor and Germany miss him sorely. I would have taken him for a lioer Uopper or an English yeoman. This suggestion was supported by his atrocious taste in fancy waistcoats. The one he had on still sticks in my memory. It was a lurid peach-blossom creation, spotted with green. But once his steelgrey, doerhound eyes looked you up and down von forgot all about the fancy waistcoat and cot right down to business. I told his Excellency I had come for his personal instructions. . ITis first remark was like iv dash of cold water in the face.

"Hum!" he grunted, "you axe rather young, but I suppose they (meaning the Emperor and Von Wedell) know what they are doing." Besides telling me to "halt my maul " (a German military expression literally meaning keep your mouth chut, but implying the- need for utmost werecy) he gave me certain general instructions. Hut from them 1 could gain no idea of just what wo:; going to happen. I could only guess. How big was the gathering storm he never i-n'ti hinted.

.Remembprin.2' Von Wedell's suggestion about the hunting party, I procured some guns and reached the station in time to catch the 12.30 express for Schlangenbad.

It was early in October when I went to the Kur Hotel and registered as Herr lVunbcrper from Berlin. If you ever go to Sehlangmibad, look up the register. iSchlangwibad is a mineral watering-plaeo in Prussia, near the Black Forest, and within easy distance of our ultimate meet-ing-place, "the hunting lodge that Von Wedell had mentioned.

— The Secret Envoys Gather.—

I was alone at the hotel for several days. Then, travelling incegnito, the dig-

uitaries began to drift in. First came the Austrian. General Moritz Hitter von AufiViiborg. A distinguished, quiet, un-!i;-siiininir gmitktman, lie is known to be high in (.lie c(infi(ii:rice <if FnmcLs Joseph. J found tho War Minister very fond of .salmon fishing, ami a< A finite into his jto'hl graces by enthusiastic tales of flyfishing in New Zealand.

Admiral von Tirpitz and General von lFeeringen came. next. The Admiral is typical of the German sailor, a big man, 6ft, wide of shoulder, blue-eyed, and full bearded. Ilif manner I found genial and courteous. His exact opposite was Von Jlecrinu'en. thin, almost crooked of body, stoop-shotilderwl, unusually taciturn, and possessing deep-sunken, smouldering black eyes. He struck m<- as an animated ninmmy of the Rameses dynasty—come to think of it, he much resembles Rameses 11.

The exact date of tho meeting, as I recall it, was Octolxir 12. and the place a 'hooting lodge, named Ehrenkrug. On the morning of the 12th I hired a vehicle, and, loading provisions, wine, and other necessaries aboard, drove to the lodge, 16 miles into the fore.-t.

No farmhouse or other hnman habitation wa.s within a radius of several miles. It was a lanre stone and brick building, somewhat similar to vour colonial style. It had five or six guest rooms, a large general meeting hall, and a moraine room. Tt being the property of the Royal Family, I fonnd two old pensioners of the Imperial Forest Service in charge. They had a good fire going in tho irrate, which was welcome, for it was still a little damp and chilly, especially in this wet mountain forest.

Patrolling both ends of tho road were a number of gendarmes. They were scattered through the woods, too, forming a cordon through which no one could come. Indeed, thev had challenged me. About 3 o'clock in the afternoon the German and Austrian envoys came out from the hotel, and at a anarter to 4 (I remember Waechter remarking, " They're three-quarters of an hour late!") the chmr of a motor announced the others, Lord Haldane and Winston Churchill.

— A CSroup of History-makers. — I had never happened to meet Haldane before, and I found him the English gentleman personified—polished and reserved. Yet his reserve, tempered by age, blended into a genial mellowness. The usual English arrogance had evidently been subdued by reason of his cosmopolitan knowledge of the world. In speech and action he was a Chesterfield, but in appearance he was not unlike a canon or a bishop, a little ascetic looking, and rather bald.

Quite the other type of Anglo-Saxon, still boyish in .looks, high-strung and nervous, erratic in speech and action, just a bit self-conscious, Winston Churchill was the youngest member of this remarkable gathering. I had met him during the iioor war, and as he took oif his motoring coat he looked at me closely. " I believe I've seen you before," he said.

" I met the right honourable gentleman in the Bloemfontein Field Hospital during the war." " Ah, yes," said Churchill, his face lighting up. He had had his wound dressed there. His recognition showed his remarkable memory. After refreshments the envoys immediately adjourned to the big morning room, and I was posted outside to see that no gendarme or forest pensioner came within earshot. I was not present at the beginning of the conference, but after an hour had passed I was summoned. My first impression as I opened the door was of an air of tenseness. It was obvious in the way Churchill was staring across the table at Haldane. It was an ordinary large German oak dining-room table, and in the middle were two big shaded lamps. It was growing dusk, and, after lighting the lamps, I backed away to a corner of the room. I had a distinct impression of the features of the six men who were making history round that table. There were writing materials, stacks of paper, and documents at every place. Sheets and sheets of paper were covered with their handwriting. Only in front of Von Heei , - ingen were the sheets blank, for he Beyer makes a note on anything, carrying everything in his marvellous memory. Obviously what were the last words of a speech came from Moritz, the Austrian, as I entered: " And to make this, all possible," he was saying, "we must break the Russian Federation in the Balkans."

— The Pawns in the Game.— From his place at the head of the table the iron-grey-haired Kiderlen-Waechter rose slowly. I noticed he wore another of those atrocious vests. Turning on- his left he gazed at Churchill and Tirpitz; his careful measuring eyes then met Moritz, an expectant, slightly nervous figure at the other end of the table .awaiting the reply to the point he had raised. And Waechter's eyes turned from him to Heeringen, to Haldane; then he spoke. I recall distinctly the import of his remarks. '

"Gentlemen," he said, "the point raised by General Moritz must stand, and, of course, it needs the sanction of our respective heads. As Lord Haldane has pointed out, it does complicate matters to some extent. The Balkans concern Austria most; to my way of thinking it is quite within reason to accede this point. [As • I write I recall vividly how gra-ve they had all become. They knew what this meant—war in the Balkans.] On all main points," said Kiderlen-Waechter, "we are agreed. As indicated by his Imperial Majesty, the primary reason of our meeting is to come to a tacit understanding in regard to technical details. This we have done. It is unfortunate, however, that this possible phase, the Balkan point, has not been gone into before. I suggest that we adjourn, to inform our respective Governments of this point. If necessary, we will meet again on Wednesday."

— Destroying the Evidence.— This second meeting, by the way, was not necessary, all the Governments represented agreeing with Austria. As Kidorlen-Waechter sat down, Haldane audibly concurred, the others merely nodding. Apparently the conference was at an end. But what had they accomplished? From the general tenor of their conversation it was obvious that they all agreed. But what were the terms ot their bargain? Presently I was to know. " Bamberger," said Kiderlen-Waechter, addressing me by the name I had taken, " gather up any pieces of paper on the table and consign them to the fire." "I replied: "Yes, sir." Then turning to the others, he continued:

"Gentlemen, select the memoranda you wish to keep. The rest is going to bo destroved immediatelv.'"

—Reading Between the Lines.—

While they ran over their , papers, saving necessary scrape, I at-ood back from the table. It was characteristic of ths men that Winston Churchill ehould have taken tbo most \olujninou6 notes, while Jloeringen had not put down a line. I then gathered up every ecrap of paper left on the table—blotters, little notepads, foolscap—used or unused. Everything was to go into the fire. I went, about this slowly and deliberately, taking care to glance at everything before I carried it over to the grate. I wanted to make sure that nothing of value was destroyed. Here and there came a pood chance to read some of the contents. Piece by piece from the memoranda the different men had made, always being careful not to confuse individnal notes, thus learning ono by one their train of thought, the thing began k> piece itself together for me. There were extensive notes on army and navy matters. Churchill, for instance, had carefully noted the full strength that Austria and Germany could muster in case of wax. Kider-len-Waechter had recorded the. full strength of England and Austria as given by Churchill and Moritz. So had Morite taken down German and English st-itis-ties. Obviously it was a. triangular alliance, each noting to what extent dependence could be placed upon the other. Then there were data on the French and Russian armies and navios. 'The (significance of that wae apparent. What puzzled me, howerver, were numerous statistics on Holland and Belgium.

—5,500,000 Germans Ready for Action.—

Not until Kiderlen-Wacchter and Churchill, squatting down by the fireplace and poking the burning papers with oldfashioned irons, not untii then, when

there began a conversation and other pairs conversed on certain points all <uound the room, did I gain a clear idea of just what had happened. What they said, the vital scraps of their conversation as they drifted to me while 1 moved to and from the table and fire-place, I shall now present as close to the worde of the men involved as I am able.

11-'oriugen, who had drown Haldane aside, said : "We are ready at any time with 3,500.000 men without any further straining of our reserves. According to our latest agreement, Austria will support us with 2,000/JOO more men. The financial aspect of this is, of course, out of inv hands."

Haldane mumbled something that sounded like "That is very satisfactory." At any rate, he nodded an affirmative. By this time tho positions had changed somewhat, and Churchill drew Tirpitz aside. Churchill spoke German only indifferently, so they conversed in French and partly in English. I heard Tirpitz say: "We could bottle up the Baltic in 12 hours. Russia would not have a ohanee to stir. Of course, in the event oi any outside situation arising, we shall look to Y. n gland to take care of such new condition, That seems to rest clearly with yoirr navy." Churchill he-came a little cautioue. "There is a certain contingency that might arise," ho said. "Suppose, under stress of circumstances, the United States should take a definite stand against us in Uiis matter?" —United States Not a Factor.— The reply, of the Admiral was the very expressive German word —"Quatsch!" He further intimated that tho United Statee was so interested in its own internal affaire that it would not be drawn into the question, and that in any event its navy would be needed for ite own immediate protection. He had a disposition, however, to put the entire situation up to Oh iirchill.

KidcTlen-Waechter and Moritz were deep in tho Balkan question, and I sensed then the coming -Balkan imbroglio. "Without doubt," Moritz said, "we will bring that to an issue within a few months." I knew he meant that Austria would precipitate the Balkan question. Kiderlen-Waechter was serious.

"It has got to be done." Thero were other , snafehes, all bearing on the same subject, and gradually the situation began to clarify in my mind. It was not, however, until I had noted the contents of certain document* before destroying them that the tremendous importance of the big stakes ihey -were all playing for became apparent. What I shall now do is to reveal the substance of these documents, coupling them with overheard conversation, thus interpreting the full significance of the conference.

Within the last 25 years Germany has so enormously advanced in commerce that she urgently needs some further outlet on a northern seacoast. This means Holland and Belgium. Hamburg and Bremen are the only two practical iharbours that Germany possesses for the distribution of her enormous export. The congestion in both places is such that steamers wait for -weeks to load. One-quarter of Germany's exports goes through Antwerp. Germany must have Antwerp. Practically the whole of southern Germany's commerce, especially along the Rhine and the highway of the Rhine, pours into a foreign conn-try at present. Germany must have Antwerp—in fact, the whole coast, iAmsterdam and Rotterdam included.

The. ompire wants harbours, not cdonies. The colonising idea is a fallacy. Germany is, finst and last, a manufacturing country. It never was and never will be, for a long time to come, a successful coloniser. At present all that Germany wants is markets, and facilities for extending her markets. These markets Germany will always be able to command because of her intense scientific application of all branches of manufacture. But these products need outlets. Germany is quite willing to let the otbeTs colonise so long as phe has a chance to get her goods in. So much for the German situation.

—Germany Cannot Fight England.— England, in her vast oversea domains and possessions, wants rounding up. England has not been able in the past, and certainly is not at present, able to supply herself and her colonies. In Germany she has a finst-class workman. Germany manufactures what England needs. Germany's building of lifer navy was never meant* as a real menace to Great Britain. It was' solely a means to impress the English that Germany would make a powerful and valuable ally in every shape and form. Conversely, it was a threat that she would be a dangerous opponent. This is clearly understood in the English and German Cabinets. Public opinion is being rapidly educated up to this in both countries. All the war-scare talk between Germany and England hns been/and is only a meane to an end. The end is to throw dust in the eyes of the rest of the world. Germany and England will never go to war. The destruction of one would mean thg destruction of thq other. They are too equally powerful to be able to fight each other; their real intereste run too close together. Indeed, they are mutual. Germany manufactures, , England uses. — The Doom of France.— Shoulder to shoulder, Germany and England (Germany, of course, including Austria, and probably Italy) cculd dictate to the rest of the world. There is one stumblinj-block. Thia is France.

Well-informed Frenchmen have known r.nd feared this for a long time. They have, of course, never mentioned it in public. Shrewd French statesmen have long kept it in the seclusion of their own minds. It would hs r>olitical and possibly physical death openly to assert that France is doomed. But doomed she is.

With all her gallantry, hvsterical patriotism, and wealth, she would never be able to hold out against Germany

alone. Her attempts at alliances have been frenzied. To secure Russia's friendship she has loaned enormous sums of money. But the Japanese war and internal troubles have eliminated Russia as a high-class ally. She was at the time of the Black Forest conference but a secondary power. She is to-day balanced by Turkey and Austria. The Balkan States are smashed. So France did -her utnvost to solidify the entente cordiale fostered t>y the late King Edward VII under the stress of public opinion in England.

— What They All Want.— To what extent she met success we have seen. The Moroccan question showed England ready to back up France in war, but now comes this meeting in the Black Forest. Germany has shown England the greater advantage of a German-English coalition, and Fiance is frozen out. England, with her shrewd alertness to make the most profitable deal, was not slow to see the advantages of the German proposition. In a nutshell it is this:

Germany must have the lowland ports. Holland is not adverse to coming into the O.rman Federation. Belgium is adverse, but could be snuffed out as easily as a candle. But French public opinion mrald never tolerate under any circumstance? Wlis German acjiri'-esFion. France would, fight, l even though knowing it to be a kying right. If only she would let Germany have what she wants, there would be no war. But the French temperament, public opinion, years of decorating with flowers that Alsace-Lorraine symbol, the Strasbourg statue in Paris, have not been conducive to fostering a submissive spirit in France. To resent Germany's inevitable aggression is equally inevitable. So much for what Germany gets out of it. Austria wants to round up her Empire in the Balkans. Austria has to have outlets in the Mediterranean. England, for standing by Germany, will b- rewarded with French Northern Africa and the Dutch East India possessions. What wijl becora" of France? Keeou traction, partitioning, possibly a little kingdom, probably undsr the Orleans regime" France is in the lap of the gods. I know these things, for I possess them in black and white.

Note by the editor of Collier's Weekly. —In response to many queries following the publication of the article, "The Kaiser Prevents a War," we wish to say that Dγ Graves is no longer in the service of tho German Government. While on a secret mission to England in 1912, he was arrested in Glasgow, tried on a charge of espionage at Edinburgh in June, 1912. and sentenced to 18 months in the Barlirmey Prison. He was, however, released! by the Government in September of thr same yeas.