THE YEAR'S TRADE.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 15955, 24 December 1913, Page 6

THE YEAR'S TRADE.

A BUOYANT FEELING

NO LACK OP MONEY

EFFECTS OF THE STRIKE

At this time of the year it is usual for the business man to look back on tho operations of his previous 12 months for the purpose of g lv ' n g him some'guide as to what his prospects for the ensuing year may bo. Inquiries made by representatives ot this journal from many leading merchants and tradespeople in Dunedin leave one wah the pleasant oatisl'action that tho capital ol Otago and the province itself have had a prosperous year, and that the outlook fur the future is full of promise It has been onco more thoroughly demonstrated that Dunedin is well holding its own a 6 the industrial centre of tho dominion, and that our manufacturing concerns receive a very* largo proportion of their revenue from places many miles from here. Another very pleasing discovery which has to be recorded Is that tho effects of the strike, on tho whole, have certainly not been as serious as was at first anticipated—at any rate they have not been so far felt,—though such firms as R. Hudson and Co,, the Phoenix Company, and other concerns, which were right in the middle of their rush to execute Christmas orders for northern towns, must have suffered severe monetary losses. The hold-up ol i.i.c.d ln:i,.s in Sidney and Melbourne also prevented a lot of Christmas and New Year business being done. The general feeling amongst thotc business people interviewed, howovcr was a distinctly optimistic one, and they have no foar6 lor tho fair future of our city and province alike. Furthermore, it was freely stated that money was plentiful, and that bad debts were no more in evidence than usual.

WHOLESALE MERCHANDISE MERCHANTS.

Air J. Jliine, chairman of the Dunediu Merchant Association, stated that during tliu passing year business, taking it all round. Had been very good. 01 course, ho continued, tiie strike uuected town busintso to a certain extent, hut so iar its eitocts had not been noticeabie in the country to any appreciable extent, raid ho did not think it would. In the town it had been found that the 6tocks of old dried fruits, such as sultanas and dates, had this year been sufficient to meet the demand, demonstrating that the strike had caused a restriction in this direction, in an ordinary year, it was eat'u to say, tnesc o.d skicl;s, as well as the big proportion of the new goods for Dunediu now lying in Australian stores, wouid have gone straight into consumption. When they did arrivo the new season's fruits wouid have to be disposed of practically at a, loss. Mr Milne said that merchants' business on the whole •—that was, until the strike—had been very satifiiactory; money was coining in all right, and bad debts were no greater than 'there were signs, however, that a little more caution would be necessary. So far as could be seen, the town and country were both in a sound financial condition, and the outlook for future trade ooiined to the. past solid average being weli maintained.

A well-known merchant stated that a noteworthy feature in the merchandise trade was the manner in which the public taste changed. He pointed out that the.' fig trade at one time assumed considerable proportions, but that for some reason or other the people had evidently changed to other dried fruits, with the result that thedemand for lig6 had dropped oil' very materially, and merchants found it difficult to gauge the demand. One reason ascribed tor thia falling demand was the wide uso of false teeth, and the fact that the seeds of the figs got underneath tho plates and caused considerable inconvenience. Dates were another fruit which had upset calculations somewhat. When this fruit, said the merchant, first came hero in cartons it met with a greater salt; than the bulk dates, whereas the opposite state of things nowprevailed. The position as regarded dates, Iw continued, also applied to sultanas and currants, the greater demand being for the bulk goods. Ko tar as tho sale of 6Ugar was concerned, our informant remarked that during the last 12 months this commodity had become a more unprofitable line to handle than ever, and the action of the Government in bringing a case against the Merchants' Association as a result of its connection with th£ Colonial Sugar Company had certainly not improved matters, nor had it given the consumer the benefit of cheaper sugar. Taking fhe year all round, he continued, until the strike occurred merchants were well satisfied with their turnovers. Up till then business compared very favourably' with that for tho corresponding period «f last year, when trade had been very good, As siiowuig the effect of fhe recent industrial upheaval, tho merchant 6tated that great quantities of goods for immediate consumption, and more especially for the Christmas trade, had been held up in Melbourne and Sydney, and that when they did arrive the demand would have eased very considerably, so that merchants would be left with far bigger stocks than would be necessary during the year, and owing to tho non-delivery of the commodities, which in numerous cases had to bo paid for on sight draft, they were being kept out of their money. Well over 20,000 boxes of sultanas consigned to Dunedin are lying in Sydney and Melbourne, each box weigh' ing a quarter of a cwt, and also 3000 to 4000 boxes of dates, each box weighing half a cwt, and these should have all gone into consumption for the Christmas trade. There are besides many other lines of merchandise for Dunedin also held up in tho Australian stores. "Up till now," concluded our informant, "money is coming in all right, but the real effect of the strike will not bo fully apparent till the next month or two. Meantime we are disinclined to open up fresh business and are pursuing a policy of caution."

RETAIL GROCERY TRADE. The conditions experienced in tho grocery trade during the past year seem capable of summing up in the one word "unsatisfactory"—a state of affairs that has been induced by a number of unusual circumstances. The weather has been an all-im-portant factor during the past season, and the prolongation of winter conditions right on through the summer has meant that the demand for goods usually finding reads sale in tho hot weather has been extremely slack. Early in the year there were expectations 'on all hands of a good season, and

a large quantity of summer lines were imported, or, rather, placed on order, for the strike has held up several largo shipments on the other side. On the other hand, however, a number of lines that were held in heavy supply have been cleared, this result also being attributable to the holding up of good 6 through the strike, In addition to the adverse effect of the weather, this particular branch of trade has also suffered through the smallpox scare in the north, which prevented people from travelling, and lessened tho amount or money going into circulation. _ Generally speaking, the concensus of opinion seems to be that money has been fairly free, but with a good season for the farmers, and more steady employment for tho workers in the towns, there would havO i been a greater amount of business passing. With regard to tho prices of tho various commodities, it seems that these have had a tendency to become slightly inflated in value, and in view of the present conditions, there does not seem to bo a»y lijjelihood of a reduction. The future prospects of the trade are looked forward to with a fair degree of optimism, and eo long as an average degree of activity is maintained in the other trades, and the Government is able to borrow money, matters will go along satisfactorily. Altogether, the past season has been an extremely worrying one for the trade on account of its uncertainty, but with more steadiness in industrial circles an improvement is looked forward to. SOFT GOODS HOUSES

Apparently the soft goods merchants of Duncdin have enjoyed a year of prosperity. In the wholesale lino external evidence of the fact is afforded by the enlargement of premises, and internal evidence is given by the management. "Yes," said one gentleman, " business has boon fairly -well maintained throughout the year, though now mid again money has been somewhat on the tight side. During the latter part _ of tlie year the bad weather and the strike had a detrimental effect, and the sovernl wet Reasons experienced in the country districts to the south of Dimedn «Jso militated against the usual business being done. On the wholo, however, business is sound,

with an increasing tendency, and with a return to normal trade conditions there is r.o reason to think that we shall not be as prosperous as ever."

The retail soft goods dealers are as happily placed as is tho gentleman who made that statement. Their trade is more of a cash trade than that of the warehouses, and they are therefore in closer touch with the general public. One manager, who is not inclined to paint too rosy a picture of business at any time, raid that the year had not been at all a bad one. Looking calmly over his books since January last ho had really nothing to complain about, and if business is as solid in the coming year; he will be thankful. He is afraid, however, that the effects of the strike will mako themselves felt for some time. Already his Christmas trade is showing a slight falling off as compared with that of last Christmas. The lady who bought 6s worth of toys last year is buying only 2s 6d worth this year. The experience of this manager is typical of tho experience of others. Everywhere it is anticipated that the strike will have, at any rate, some deterrent effect on the retail business. Some hold that it will be serious, and .will be felt, for months, and others say it will pass away in a month cr SO.

One trader in George street is very sanguine. "I have increased my business all through the year, and as for the period of the strike my takings have gone up 25 per cent. I have no doubt, though, that they would have increased 50 per cent if it had not been for the disturbance. Yes, I have had a very big three months since October, as compared with the closing quarter last year, and I am quite satisfied." The reduced takings he does not attribute altogether to the strike. Much of it has been due to the atrocious weather in town and countrv. It may bo added that this is not the only retail house which has been enlarged during the year, and extension of premises is always a sure indication of increasing trade and greater prosperity.

THE IRON TRADE. As far as one leading firm _ is concerned the turn out for tnc year just expiring has boon a very good one uii round. Some lines have shown a phenomenal increase. Even during the time of tho strike the firm was kept very busy in regard to certain lines. In two of these tho increase Ims been exceptional, there being a jump in one manufactured article of from two to 56. The despatcli of goods to the North Island was considerably hindered during the strike, but the process of manufacture went on all the same though the. goods could not be shipped. In such a case the goods lay on the floor for a month, but everything has now been sent forward. It was pointed out in the course of conversation that but for the strike orders from tho north would probably have been considerably augmented, as some tanners who required immediate delivery may have abstained from ordering. The first ship that got away five weeks after the strike started carried nearly 40 tons of the firm's manufactured articles, the balance being taken north by the next boat. The representative' of the firm interviewed commented on the fact that, of the 150 hands employed in the ordinary course, there hud only been a reduction of six, and explained that that reduction was due to the introduction of new and up-to-date machinery into the moulding shop rather than to any other cause. Tho of the hands alone points to the conclusion that the year has been quite as busy a one as those preceding it. Since the strike the work has been mainly directed to makine provision for the requirements of the early part of next year, it being pointed out that in such a business it is necessary to carry a stock of implements ready for nrompt delivery. In addition, the firm feels that it is unwise to dispense, with the services of men who might be difficult to replace when any pressure of business comes. The aim has always been to keep the samo number of hands employed, and with that object, though orders may not be coming in as freely as desirable, the men are kept busily engaged in building stock for future requirements. At present all hands arc fully employed, principally in that direction. A representative of another firm, when asked for an expression of opinion as to how business this year compiled with business in the past, said there was no reason for complaint: that business had been quite equal to that of previous years. With the exception of the last two months, during which period business had naturally been seriously affected by tho strike, things had been as "good as ever. In some departments there had been a decided advance, and in the others business had been well up to the mark; that was, with tho exception of tho period just alluded to. Asked as to the prospects for next year, the gentleman interviewed was quite optimistic, and said that the outlook was quite a bright one. During the past year several very large contracts had been completed, and the firm was still busy with a lot of big' constructional work, such_ as steel buildings and steel bridges, covering many thousands of pounds. Tho past year, although perhaps not quite up to previous years, has on tho whole been a. very busy and successful one, said the representative of another firm. The late strike did not aft'ect this firm to any great extent, although it was, of course, • inconvenienced by the lengthy delay in the delivery of imported 6peei;il machinery parts. Work lias been found throughout the year for all the men employed by the firm. Several large contracts have been put through, and others are in. the course of completion, notably the building of a Priestman dredge for the Riverton Harbour Board. The whole of the hull, superstructure, engines, and boilers have been made at the foundry, tho only part imported being the Priestman grab. Tho dredge is a self-propeller of the hopper type, and when finished will proceed to Riverton under her own steam. A number of workmen are at present employed on tho construction of a dredge for the Five-mile Beach Gold Extraction Company, operating on the West Coast. The machine will bo a novelty in that it will be fitted with buckets and a ladder which delivers into a sump, 'from which the wash will be extracted by a gravel pump, to pa6s through screens and then over large spread _ tables. .The pontoons for the dredge are being constructed in Greymouth, to which place it is hoped that the machinery will be shipped by the end of .February or the beginning of March. The dredge is being built under the direction of Mr Leslie Reynolds, C.E., and will bo a very powerful machine when finished. During the year the firm has carried out the work of dismantling and remodelling the City Corporation gasholder. About 100 tons of plates and rivets for tho new bottom have just been landed—about eight weelio behind the estimated time of their arrival. This work is being put in l hand at once, and will be in full swing immediately after the holidays. It is hoped that this contract will be completed early next June. The firm has lately built an 18-inch sand pump for the Harbour Board, to be employed in the reclamation of Lake Logan. In addition to the foregoing, a large amount of general casting and forging work and shipping reuairs have been effected. Generally speaking, business seems to bo a little brighter than at this time last year, and it is hoped that tho coming 12 months will see an increaso in activity in all branches of the trade. Tho head of a well-known firm of rangemakers, when approached, said that the output of ranges during tho past year had been satisfactory, and he considered that the outlook was fairly bright. As illustrating the fact that Dunedin is the chief industrial centre of New Zealand, he mentioned that ho had recently supplied the whole of the cooking apparatus, consisting of nine ranges, for use in a big hospital in tho North Island. Within the last two or threo months he had also supplied a number of North Island hotels with large-size ranges made in Dunedin. WHOLESALE HARDWARE BUSI- ,, NIBSES. The head of a larso hardware firm stated that business in hardware lines during tho year had been of a satisfactory nature. Local linns, ho suid, had certainly been affected by the Home strikes which occurred at the beginning of the year. Tho delay in getting delivery of orders had caused prices to advance considerably, and this had been the means of curtailing business to a certain extent. Markets hero, however, had now got back to the normal, and merchants were looking forward to a busy summer and autumn, as tho lower values were stimulating a better demand, It was anticipated that this increased demand would be very_ noticeable so far as fencing and wire netting materials are concerned, t'hey being some 10 to 15 per cent, lower than six montlis ago. Taking it all round, money has been coming in very satisfactorily—there is no appreciable tightness—and the feeling as to the country generally is very good. The local etriko had had no effect whatever on their particular business. BUILDING TRADES. During tho year some very substantial buildings have been completed, or are at present being constructed, in the city. The largest of these is the handsome edifice being erected in Staiart street; for tho Dunedin Technical School. Then thero are tho public baths, tho additions to the University, Haynes's buildings, National Bank, tho orphaiKigo at Anderson Bay, Jamicson's buildings, Scurr's buildings, Dresden buildings, Plaza Picture Theatre, Hallenstein's buildings, new wing to Knox College, and other structures of

Ices size. Furthermore, the number of 1 suburban residences which have been built s prove that the town is progressing steadily, i The building trade, in fact, hns been well < maintained. In the coming year a start « will in all probability be made on the large I new St. Paul's Cathedral and a commence- < ment may 'also bp made on the proposed I new town hall. ' THE DAIRY INDUSTRY. ■ This important branch of our agricultural , export trade has now assumed largo dimen- ( sions, with, year by year a continuous in- i crease. For the 12 months ending November 30, 1913, the exports are as follow :— i Butter. Value. Cheese. Value. Cwt. £ Cwt. £ 364,733 2,014,426 532,573 1,541.693 I Theso figures would have been creator, but November shipments were'blocked by the strike. Total value of dairy produce exported in this one year ... £3,556,119 . Ten years ago the total value exported for the year was £162,334 sterling, so that in 10 years tliia valuable export has more than doubled. Sir Joseph Ward, speaking at our Otago A. and P. Society's winter show, once predicted that ere long dairy produco would be the largest export from 'this dominion It now ranks second only to wool, and who shall say that with closer settlement, so much needed, this prediction will not be verified within a few years. So far so good. A warning, however, was received trom London last season that the dominion cheese was not up f to a proper standard of quality. All experts agree that this criticism yus justified, and steps have been taken by the Government Department and by the Dairy Associations to impress on factories the great need of improvement, and that improvement all qualified people agree must in the main come in an improved milk supply—clean, cool milk. Cleanliness, in fact, is the root of the matter. There mav be matters of transit that need improvement, but clean milk supplied to factories will do more than anything else to improve our quality, for on "the whole our cheese makers, if given good milk, can make first claw cheese. This has been amply demonstrated in London by cheese sent to shows, and also by the great praise given to the cheese sent to London from our winter show. Butter has. on the whole, not been much complained of, but. great care is needed to maintain our reputation. For I/utter the dominion now has an excellent market in Canada, and the Vancouver steamers are booked full cverv trip. But the most important outlet in the future will probably be with America, through the San Francisco service, the new American tariff having now made it noesible to trade. Already the San Francisco steamers take largo quantities, but nothing like What will he the case if the quality and requirements of this new market are attended to. Mr J. R. Scott, secretary of the South Island Dairy Association, reports that this season has 'opened well, and, despite tho strike, produce is being got away with expedition, and in tho South Island nearly all the cheese factories sold to London at about 6Jd f.0.b., and arc on an excellent wicket. In the North Island a few sold, but butter and cheese were mostly consigned to London. Last year's prices wore not up to expectations, but still good. This year the outlook is more pronrsing for better prices than last year. But in the dairy produce it is never wise to prophesy till you know (that is afterwards). The new season opened in September, and quantities show great increase. Before tho end of December the Turakina takes from the Bluff some 11.000 crates of cheese, and from Dunedin 4COO boxes of butter. The Kaipara takes '2000 crates cheese from Bluff. From Dunedin the Zealandic takes 3000 crates cheese and 4000 boxes butter. Canterbury is having a sood dairy season, and the dominion will, probably show this time next year that its dairy produce export lias increased by at least 10 per cent. THE MILLING TRADE. The milling industry during tho past year has not been altogether too satisfactory. When the season opened, velvet, velvet ear. Marshall's white, and Tuscan wore quoted at 3s 5d to 3s 6d per bushel on trucks in the vicinity of Oamaru and North Otago. As the season advanced, however, all these wheats advanced in price, particularly velvet, until a margin of between Id and 5d ruled between the latter cereal and the others named. Prices to-day range from 4s Id to 4s 2d on trucks for velvet within a radius of 100 miles of Dunedin, and 3s 9d to 3s lOd for red sorts. Millers anticipated that such a, disparity in values would be recorded, as it was well known that considerably lees velvet had been sown. The position 10-day is that velvet is almos*- unobtainable, and that, while Tuscan. Marshall's white, and velvet ear have been more plentiful .all the year, particularly Tuscan, stocks of all varieties are practically exhausted, with the exception of that held by millers. It is considered that there is now just enough wheat in hand to tide millers over to tho tmeshing of the new crop. As has been stated above, the year ha 6 been a disappointing one for millers. Tho low rate of priees for flour and offal and the high prices for wheat have not lclt much to come and go on. There has been practically no export of wheat on account ot the high freignts and tho fact that wheat in the overseas mark'ets has ruled lower than in thj dominion, and it is a rather fortunate circumstance lor the consumer that it has been so, otherwise there would not have been sufficient cereals to meet the requirements of the New Zealand mills, and prices for flour must have shown a sharp advance. Most of the milling wheat required 'in tho dominion was secured from the Oamaru and Canterbury districts, that grown south of Dunedin being affected by tho wet autumn and spring, and being too soft for milling, The values received by farmers both for milling and fowl wheat must, however, bo accounted very satisfactory, though wet weather at tho sowing time restricted the areas _ laid down. Unseasonable weather has again this season prevented farmers putting in all the 'wheat they may have first arranged for, and the' difficulty of securing .labour has also ; had an effect in restricting the area, consequently the crops for 1914 will be again short—not sufficient, it is considered, to see millers into the 1915 season. With tho record harvest anticipated this year in Australia, however, the dominion wheat market will probably bo ruled from this quarter, and it is anticipated that a largo quantity ■of Australian tloui', or its equivalent in wheat, will find its way to our shores next year. What the effect on local wheat values will be, if the anticipated importations eventuate, remains to bo Men. The strike certainly had an. effect Jn dislocating tho export of flour to the North Island, but its effects •wero not very serious, as it came at a dull time of the year for the milling trade. ' THE OAT MARKET. "The most unsatisfactory season ever experienced in the history of the oat trade" just about sums up the position so far n3 Dunedin merchants are concerned. At the commencement of tho season it was freely conjectured that there was not sufficient crop to fulfil requirements. Experience has shown that tins forecast, was far from correct. Heavy floods in the southern districts in tho middle of winter had the effect of inflating the market, and one or two speculators bought fairly heavy lines, transactions being recorded at up to 2s and 2s 7d, f.0.b., s.L This was tho tco quotation touched; to-day prices are dewn to 2s 2jd to 2s 3d, f.o;b., s.i., with a weak market. So far as Dunedin is concerned, not a great number of orders for outside ports came this way. Australia this year required very few New Zealand oats—in 1912 merchants there took a very largo quantity;—the North Island kept its requirements pretty well down to a hand-to-mouth basis; and high freights precluded any possibility of sending oats to the European markets. Those speculators, too, who wanted to realise on their holdings, in tho absence of any great direct demand from North Island, sent their oats there' on consignment, and this brought down values. On top of these factors was the stringency of the money market and tho disinclination of farmers "to accept current quotations. All helped to restrict operations. Canterbury merchants secured practically tho bulk of the business coming to the South Island, Bluff securing most of ihe rcmiining'orders. One grain merchant summed up the position thus: "So far a 6 Dunodin is concerned, the oat business handled by our merchants is getting less and less every year." It is not to bo thought, however, that at the present time there is a shortage of oats; authoritative opinions say, there aro quite sufficient to see tho dominion over till next harvest.

LIVE STOCK AND WOOL.

The prices of cattle, sheep, and pigs must have been very satisfactory to fatmers during tho past year—in fact, so far as cattle are concerned, these, under the influence of a 6hort supply, have brought very solid prices right through the year. Tho sheep farmer, too, can have nothing to complain of in tho prices which his sheep have realised at auction ; and though wool-the largest revenueproducing commodity from an export point of view in the dominion—this year at tho sales shows a drop in prices in the heavier classes, nevertheless, taken all round, the values must show a fair profit. There is ono point, however, which ought to be referred to in connection with the drop in the prices of wool, and that is, seeing tho high

values which wool brought two years some farmers were induced to pay more for their land than they otherwise would have done, and they might now in the circumstances be feeling- the effects in the drop in this product. However, with the removal of the tariff on Wool in the United States, it is anticipated that the wool market will soon recover its previous buoyant position. With respect to pigs, tho supply has not been nearly sufficient to meet the demands right through the year, and a 6 a consequence very high values have ruled for these. OTHER PRODUCE. Those farmers who planted increased areas of potatoes and expected to experience a demand from Australia equal to that of 1912 were doomed to disappointment. At the commencement of the season good prices were on offer—one Taieri farmer sold his output at £5 and £5 5s per ton on trucks there,—but in tho absence of any outside demand prices commenced to come back. A number of farmers refused to accept the offers then current, but values still receded, and towards the end of theWeason potatoes were practically not worth the trouble of digging or sending to market. The chief feature of the chaff market has been the largo quantity of inferior samples on offer, these consignments greatly exceeding the prime lots. The latter commanded fairly remunerative values throughout the year, but all sorts of prices had to be accepted for the inferior lots. THE FRUIT MARKET. One well-known Dunedin wholesale fruit merchant, questioned on the operations in this market over the past year, said that so far as he was personally concerned his business throughout the year had been extremely satisfactory. The strike, ho continued, had certainly caused slackness, but nevertheless his turnover during November and December compared more than favourably with that of the two corresponding months of the previous year. Prices for all classes of New Zealand-grown produce had been exception-' ally good—satisfactory to both grower and seller. Phenomenal crops of strawberries had been gathered in Otago Central—fully sufficient to supply Dtmedin wants during the past six or seven weeks,—and the prospects pointed to really first-class crops of stone fruits from that district and Roxburgh. The apple and pear crops in the Central H'h'o reputed to be showing excellent promise. A number of the orchards, however, devoted to the growth of these two fruits have not been under cultivation for many years, and in the fullness of time the crops from them should show a very largo increase. „ Speaking of the damage done to fruit through being delayed as a result of the through being delayed as a result of the.striko, tho agent said thut although a'large quantity of American fruit—apples and oranges—arrived practically altogether, yet, taking everything into consideration, it was got forward to Dunedin in very good condition indeed; but rather serious losses were incurred by both importers and shippers in Rarotonga and Fiji bananas. Monev had not been _ tight,' concluded tho agent, and he looked' forward with confidence to very satisfactory business in tho coming year.