PROGRESS OF THE WAR

New Zealand Times, Volume XLIII, Issue 9999, 17 June 1918, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The night of the fifth day of the battle saw only local affairs west of the Oise, the French progressing against Courcelles on their left, and the Germans attacking, with steady repulse, on the centre at Antheuilj towards the Aronde. For the same night tho experience was chiefly of artillery between the Aisne and tho Marne. The talk on our side, therefore, opened with little about battle and- much discussion of various matters. The portion dealing with the strategy is not sufficient to bo informative. That dealing with the enemy’s numbers is more important, especially Mr Belloc's statement that the strength on the West is as of ten on the German side to seven on the other. This, wo presume, embraces the whole front. It is thus a general guide, showing that tho enemy can always at his pleasure concentrate superior forces at any particular points of the Allied line he selects for attack. With that in our mind, we can readily conclude that the enemy has made exceptionally heavy concentrations in his last attack west of the Oise, and that he has boon met by exceptional alacrity on the part of the Allies. This explains how the enemy has been checked more quickly on this advance than on any of the others.

But it is not merely an affair of numbers. On the contrary, tho reports all concur in the statement that tho French who havo won the first part of this battle were throughout considerably inferior in numbers. They won, nevertheless. Naturally, one asks why, and the question can bo partially answered from the accounts of tho battle. Of the generalsliip, and of the defensive features, wo can get but little idea, except that the generalship of the Allies has selected a ground of defence which took advantage of all tho difficulties of the terrain, the higher plateaux, and country dominating river, basins. Moreover, it is fairly plain that tho enemy was forced by his defeat between the Aisne and tho Marne to make his attack west of the Oise in country not at. all remarkable for good transport facilities.

But these factors are matters for conjecture after long and careful study of maps. The thing that stands out foremost in all air reports is the astonishing success of the Allied airmen in pitched battle. Their squadrons fought regularly, taking their places in the operations against the enemy. They charged infantry all over the field; they harassed and directly attacked artillery, smashing heavy guns with bombs, and killing and dispersing the crews; they exploded ammunition dumps, and they worried every line of the enemy’s communications with groat effect. I heir speed enabled them to cover tho whole battle area with incomparable ease, and their mastery of the air freed their work from all iuterruption. It was this splendid new battle service developed by tho Allied airmen which won the great battle, in spite of the superior numbers of tho enemy. Some months must elapso before the strength of the American forces becomes overpowering. But it is becoming clear that in tho interval the decisive factor will be tho air service of tho Allies.

To weigh this service in military terms is difficult. No one can say whether the air squadrons between Montdidier and the Oise proved equal to a division, or two divisions, or several divisions. But it is certain that they enabled the army weaker in numbers to win a very remarkable victory. When the French Commander launched his decisive counter-attack, encountering not only the ordinary line, but vast concentrations ready for attack, the charging troops found the enemy disorganised and demoralised by tho swift manoeuvring aeroplanes and their machine fire and bombs. This arm will bo increased numerically faster than the fighting divisions. America, Britain, and Franco are taking special care of that.

During the last day of this battle attention has been drawn to the German armies to the northward. Colonel llepingto-u has numbered four great armies, with their commanders, and he and other commentators declare that these armies have now been rested alter their defeats, and brought up to normal by the use of fresh troops for filling up tho gaps made in their advance, and in the day s of their final holding, in spite of their prodigal exposure to fire. Von Stein, the German War Minister, has told the Reichstag that they will havo a “walk over” when they advance, as all the Allied reserves have now been used up by the artful superior German strategy. Von Stein probably has under-estimated the capacity of the man of genius who is commanding against the German generals. His statement is valuable as a confession of defeat so far. But as a prediction it is for this reason valueless. Wo may feel confident that General Foch has not allowed the enemy to force him to waste his reserves. The very effective use he has made of his air forces makes that point fairly clear.

Tho Americans, their War Secretary says, will shortly reach tho million. Their quality is shown by the comparisons made by many commentators, who say they are as good as the oversea troops. Moreover, their battalions are spread throughout all the divisions of the Western armies. The Americans have made a splendid beginning. Every day adds to their strength on the field—one authority, Colonel Repington, s<iys a new army arrives ©very month—and for the end, Mr Baker dedares that as many men will he sent as may be required for the right kind of victory, no matter what that number may be. And as the submarine opposition is_ now easily overcome, there is nothing to stop the transport of these armies.

The enemv knows it well. He has also realised what a deadly foe he has raised up by his provocation to America. Especially is he aware that the milk-and-water methods of Britain are not going to save him in America. The German menace that once reared its head in America is well under the American heel, all the heels, Latin and English-speaking, and the heels are grinding hard. Punishment will bo exacted, and German commerce and German navigation will suffer horribly. Uncle Sam is just as outspoken os John Bull about the villainies of Germany. But ho has not the love of some dominating Britons for half-mea-sures. “Our European victories,” says one’ German journal, “will iu a meisure be balanced by the losses in America.” It is a glimmering of the truth. The full truth yet to be realised by Germany is that the Russian fruits of these European victories will bo torn out of the German hands by tho weight of America. America will not stop until the logical consequences of the President’s war speeches havo been reached. There u ill be outcries against ,tho unnecessary bloodshed by pacifists and others. But the Americans have realised tho solid truth, which is that if tho war is not finished in accordance with the requirements of the Allies, there will before many years be ten times the bloodshed of this war. Tho right finish is the cheapest in blood of all tho possible finishes to this .war, . . . .... ..

The American armies have further light thrown on them. The Chief of the Staff at Washington has announced that up to date 800,000 men have been sent across the Atlantic. This speaks for the numbers. General Foch,, tho Generalissimo, after joining with General Retain, the French Comma nder-in-Ohief, in strong eulogy of the valour, discipline, and trustworthiness of tho American troops, has formally informed their Commander, General Pershing, that such American units as have hitherto been fighting in British and French divisions will in future bo assembled in divisions ot their own. This speaks for the American quality. It follows that BUU,000 American troops (less the Casualties to date) are now available for the firing line, and tho reserves kept ready for action. It is a grand element of encouragement. From the historic point of view thisappearanco in European battle of 800,000 disciplined American troops of a quality fit to meet and defeat the best troops of the Gorman Army is of surpassing inter cst, because it marks the beginning of a new epoch.

This feat of military “transportation is a complete answer to those who have doubted tho intention of Ger many to include America in the universal dominion by conquest. They have declared tho conquest of America to be a task physically impossible. Homer Lea was not of that opinion, tor bt demonstrated that tho Germans, it they liked, could throw great armies on the American coast faster and easier than the movement of troops in the Civil War from Washington to Richmond. The scoffers nevertheless continued to believe in tho impossibility, because it had never been done. The Americans have taken up tho other side, practically, by landing 800,900 disciplined men, with all weapons, animals and transport, on tho immense scale of modern war. And this in face of a formidable submarine opposition, which at one point in its career threatened to bring down the British Empire.

In another month the first million will be complete, and after that the nest million will not be long, and after them as many millions as may bo necessary to destroy Gorman militarism will arrive with regularity and dispatch.

m T + h ,° of holdin S on in the West until this reality of American disciplined strength develops to overwhelming power. On this point -Ur Asquith 13 reported to-day to have said some encouraging words. These are the more trustworthy because h c freely admits the gravity of the situs, !! on ' r, lf 7° koop U P ou r courage as the trench are doing with tho enemy trying to get within easy range of tho boulevards and the historic buildings and sacred edifices of Paris, there will be no need for anxiety.

It is now for tho enemy to bo anxious. When he opened his campaign for victory it was apparent to him that tho growing American menace would give him but scant time'to make .good against the Allies. Ho organised tho greatest campaign in history. Having prepared his men as never troops wore prepared before, he arranged a time-table of victorious battles for tho completion of his task, and thou ho hurled his masses forward supported by every dcvico of modern war. The first assault came near success, very unpleasantly near, but actually gained nothing of strategic value.

The second failed with less approach to success. /The third has paid a vast cost; there is no hope of getting Paris by the schedule time; and if Paris falls, the French and British armies remain unbroken. But there are now 800,000 Americans in the field; they arc fighting magnificently; and they are steadily plowing into millions. It is apparent that even if he takes Paris he trill not achieve victory. The task is clearly hopeless. Already the abyss yawns.

Can he take Paris? The great battle for Paris has been fought and lost by the enemy. _Jt is too 'soon to say that ho has accepted defeat. But it is true that the only reports to-day are of artillery duels. All the references to infantry battles are details of the defeats inflicted on the enemy in the previous days of the battle. Can he take the northern Channel ports? We can only say that the four armies that have tried to take them have been so badly beaten that they have required rest, refreshment and reinforcement. He pretends that as ho has used up all our reserves on the Paris side he has only to launch those four armies to secure every object he aims at. That may pass in the Reichstag. It may bo believed by the German people in the midst of their hunger and discouragement, and their enormous city mortalities. jßut it will take more than the bombast of a helmetod Iron-Crossed general to make the Allied soldiery give up their northern ports, or any other thing the German armies have hitherto failed to take from them.

The enemj, on his side, is not too happy about reserves. A document captured by the Americans bearing the signature of von Ealkenhayn shows that the Kaiser has ordered the transfer of the majority of German troops from Russia, leaving only a small remnant, sufficient to keep order. And this is confirmed by the announcement of a provisional peace with the Ukraine. Wanting the force in the West, the German Government resorts to chicane on the East. Note also that the German commander, Marshal von Eichom, is ordered by the Kaiser to take the severest measures against sabotage by the Russian railway officials. Officials I With German bayonets round them and German frightfulness glaring at them! The peasantry are out, and it is convenient to divert attention to the officials. These poor devils will be shot wholesale by His Excellency the Marshal, _pf course. But the sabotage will gd on. And the quota of troops transferred to the West front will have to be reduced. Moreover, what troops will bs transferred will be the culls of the oh] armies of the Russian frontier. All the best troops were combed out for the Western campaign. These having failed, the culls are expected to do the work, Even Germans will scarcely pin much faith on that.

On the Italian front the enemy has broken out in a new place, with a powerful assault on the Tonalo Pass. The Tonale Pass lies about thirty miles west of Trent, direct; and by the mountain valleys about forty-five. The pass lies 30 miles north-west at the head of Lake Garda, and 60 miles north-east of Bergamo. From the head of the pass the valley of the Oglio carries the road to the Lake Isco, connecting with roads to Bergamo and Brescia. Bergamo is fifty miles east of Milan, and one of the two railways serving the Italian front passes from Milan through Bergamo, Brescia, and Viacenza to the Piave.

It is not possible to maintain a large army of invasion by the Tonale Pass route. But a daring expedition getting down to Bergamo would cut the railway, apd ought to break through to the other, doing a vast amount of destruction, seriously interfering with the fighting power of the Italians and their Allies on the Trontino and Piavo fronts. Skilfully followed, such a stroke might bring down the whole Italian lino with results much like those seen on the upper Isonzo last November.

The enemy took the greatest pains to effect a surprise, but was received with all the honours. Ho attacked the mountain positions on cither side of the pass (“north and south of an important road”), gaining a small footing, from which he was 'easily ejected, and trying again during the night he fell badly under the Italian barrage. Tho Italian official use of the “important road” and the omission of the name are eloquent testimony to tho seriousness of tho menace offered. Tho road was evidently the road leading to tho Bergamo and Brescia systems, which, if Tonale Pass had been captured (only 45 miles by undisturbablo valleys) would soon have been swarming with Austrian troops.