SOME ISSUES IN THE STRUGGLE

New Zealand Mail, Issue 1676, 13 April 1904, Page 16

SOME ISSUES IN THE STRUGGLE

(By John Faster Fraser in the “Daily Chronicle.”)

That Russia is the evil genius among nations is believed by fivo out of every six men you meet in the railway carriage of a morning. Though in the great conflict between, the Muscovite and the Jan we, as a nation. Avill maintain our strict neutrality, there is no doubt that the news of every Russian reverse Avill be hailed with much demonstration throughout the country. Exactly why avo should have the fondness for Japan and a dislike of Russia is on the surface cileaa* enough. We have a natural dislike of Russian methods of government, ignoring that the Russian is largely Eastern in his composition, and that lie rules according to Eastern ideas, and Hot according to Western.. Admitting that in many respects Russia is far behind other European nations, the fact stands out that Aid thin the last 100 years she has made a progress Avhich h phenomenal, and Avifioh she Avould never have made had there not been autocracy behind it all. We have imbedded in our minds the belief that Russians cruel, and every story about harshness in Siberia has been readily sAvalloAved. Whatever may have been the conditions in the past there is no doubt that at the present time the prison system in Siberia compares well Avitih that of any Western land. A thing that moist British people do not remember is that although the government is autocratic, there is a, leaven of democracy in it all. The strongest man in Russia at the present day, M. Witte, began life as a raiiAvay porter, and Prince Kkilkoff, the Minister of Ways and' Communimtious, AA r as an ordinary mechanic Avho learnt engineering at Birkenhead.

JAPAN APPEALS TO US because it is a picturesque, fascinating country; because the Japanese themselves are among the marvels of the world in that they threw off their Orientalism and put on the Western garb, and that they are plucky and square their fists Avithout hesitation in the face of the Muscovite:. What, however, is not generally recognised is thatthe Japanese can be as cruel as any nation on earth. We saw that in the Ch-?no-Japanese Avar. The hatred toward foreigners is most marked. Though, of course, Japan has matoy enthusiastic admirers, the fact nevertheless remains that the British residents in Japan are usually its severest critic®, and that in business transactions the Japanese do- not, as a race, boar the reputation for high commeroial morality.

I aim cine of those inclined te believe AVe took a false step Avhen avo entered into an alliance Avith the Japanese. For years Japan has been preparing for conflict. Her whole ambition ha® been to have a bout with the Russians. I agree Russia has broken all her promises in regard to the evacuation of Manchuria. But nobody Avho know® that part of the Avorld could ever have thought that Russia intended to leave the land. She desired Manchuria because she Avished to extend her empire. Japan, AA'hile resisting Russia on the plea that it is to maintain the integrity of the Chinese empire, and that she is opposed! to the obvious intention of the Czar and his advisers to ultimately annex Korea, has but one aim; to secure these two countries for herself. Both nations have a great deal of right in their cause. RUSSIA HAS LEGITIMATE AMBITION

to have an outlet into warm Avater, so that she be not hedged! in with ice for nearly half the year. On the other hand, Japan has a rapidly increasing population. She desires to cofoinise, and she sees that if she -allows the opportunity to go by of getting Manchuria and Korea within, her grip, then her hopes of becoming a world Power will pass forever.

When in a sort of semi-disguise, I travelled across Manchuria to see what the Russians were doing in that region, 1 was amazed at the way they were settling the country. The railway line was nearing completion; towns and villages were springing into existence; commerce was being opened up, and the only parallel I could think of was a stretch of Western America under a “boom.” Frequent writers refer to the Trans-Siberian line in Manchuria, and tot the way it is laid. The Manchuria is quite distinct from that in Siberia. While

that in Siberia is Government property, the one across Manchuria belongs to $ company, though the Russian Government is behind it. The line in Siberia is quite as well laid as the ordinary trans-American lines. But the line in Manchuria is, for long stretches, most uneven,.and is constantly getting out of repair. The bridges, however, are exceedingly fine. Russian troops are taking particular pains to guard' the bridge across the Sungari. I crossed this bridge the day after it could he Avalked across. Later I saw the building of the bridge across the Nu'ni—s,ooo Chinese and 2,009 Russians working day and night, .seven days in the AV-eok, pushing it to completion.

Though in national ethics our Government has bee'n justified! in protesting against the continued occupation of Manchuria, the protests have been little other than Avaste-papei*, for Downing street has known all along that Russia would 'not evacuate, and Russia knew well that we had not sufficient interests , in that part of the world to take av.f active steps to oust her. We really have got no direct ground of issue Avith Russia, though Japan Avith an eye to the future, undoubtedly lias.

THE LEGITIMATE FEAR, in many minds is that we will become entangled! in the oontroA-ersy. We have been, dbing our best to keep on friendly terms with France so that France will thank twice before going to the aid of her Russian alllv. If she did we Avould he compelled, under the terms..of our agreement, to take sides with Japan, and face both France and Russia in Avar.

That Japan Avill ultimately Avin in the struggle I am by no means confident. At the start she is almost certain to have the advantage. There is full reason -to think that should the fleets of the two countries meet one another, that of Russ- * sia Avill be w ors tod. Japan ay ill then land her troops. I should not be surprised, hoAA'ever, if for se\*eral mouths there is no iand fighting. Russia Avill back into Manchuria, towards Siberia, destroying the country before her, and Japan, however excellent her transports, will not have the poAver to follow the enemy into the Avildemess. Russia has a distinct disadvantage- at the present time, in that winter is now at its severest, and getting troops across Siberia and' Manchuria is a task, to describe Avhioh the Avard colossal is a feeble term. What Russia Avill probably do is to allow Japan to take possession of Korea and seize the Manchurian seaboard. Maintaining so huge an, army will he a tremendous drain on Japanese resources. She will probably allow her to bleed financially for some months, and them, in early summer, she will bring a very avalanche of troops upon those of her pugnacious little foe, and. not by warlike ability, bult by sheer force of numbers, will crush Japan from her hold on the Asiatic mainland.